Conjecture and Question - Page 7

A_PLUS · #61 11-09-2005, 02:00 AM

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I conclude that the one factor model (chips only) is inadequate to estimate EV, since we know a great players EV is about his/her long run ROI: lets say $40K.

If the EV of T10,000 starting chips must be below $1300 for any player, then other aspects such as skill, etc must comprise the remaining ~$40K. Some skills may be based on the quanitity of chips, but the main conclusion is still that doubling the stack size early does not affect EV that much. A first order affect on the additional EV of chips alone would be an increase of less than $1300 for T20,000.

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It really is a shame that people blatently ignore your posts. Although, I am not sure you arent, in fact two different people. The guy who writes gems like these, and the guy who throws out short phrases about being a "push-monkey".

anyway, NP

LearnedfromTV · #62 11-09-2005, 02:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I conclude that the one factor model (chips only) is inadequate to estimate EV, since we know a great players EV is about his/her long run ROI: lets say $40K.

If the EV of T10,000 starting chips must be below $1300 for any player, then other aspects such as skill, etc must comprise the remaining ~$40K. Some skills may be based on the quanitity of chips, but the main conclusion is still that doubling the stack size early does not affect EV that much. A first order affect on the additional EV of chips alone would be an increase of less than $1300 for T20,000.

[/ QUOTE ]

It really is a shame that people blatently ignore your posts. Although, I am not sure you arent, in fact two different people. The guy who writes gems like these, and the guy who throws out short phrases about being a "push-monkey".

anyway, NP

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I don't understand how your equity is only $1300. This is based on multiplying the first prize by your percentage of chips in play? But you are playing for the entire prize pool. Could locutus or someone else explain?

Mason Malmuth · #63 11-09-2005, 02:08 AM

Hi Everett:

What you say is also easy to show late in a tournament because of the impact of the prize pool. But here I'm talking about the very first hand.

Best wishes,
mason

Mason Malmuth · #64 11-09-2005, 02:11 AM

Hi Don:

First off, and I didn't state this in my original post, I do agree that a marginal player's expectation will behave differently from that of a very good player. I'm only interested in what happens to the EV of a very good player when he doubles his chips early on.

Best wishes,
Mason

Mason Malmuth · #65 11-09-2005, 02:13 AM

Hi ilya:

The problem here is that in the two person tournament doubling up is impacted by the end game -- the tournament is over. In my question, the impact of the endgame is negligible (I think).

Best wishes,
Mason

Mason Malmuth · #66 11-09-2005, 02:16 AM

Hi TV:

I don't think so. Using Harrington terminology, there is no question that when your M is 10 you have playing advantages over opponents whose M is 5. But when your M is 80, I don't believe you have any advantages over someone whose M is 40.

Best wishes,
Mason

Mason Malmuth · #67 11-09-2005, 02:20 AM

Hi locutus:

I just read your post quickly. While I agree with what you say, that effect should be negligible right at the beginning of a tournament. late inb a tournament it should be huge, but my question concerns the first hand.

best wishes,
mason

Mason Malmuth · #68 11-09-2005, 02:23 AM

Hi Atticus:

Your example may not be relevant since it effectively ends the tournament. In my question knocking one person out and you having double the chips really has no impact.

best wishes,
mason

Mason Malmuth · #69 11-09-2005, 02:28 AM

Hi Atticus:

Great post. At the very least I think this is part of the answer.

best wishes,
Mason

LearnedfromTV · #70 11-09-2005, 02:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi TV:

I don't think so. Using Harrington terminology, there is no question that when your M is 10 you have playing advantages over opponents whose M is 5. But when your M is 80, I don't believe you have any advantages over someone whose M is 40.

Best wishes,
Mason

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Sure he does. For one thing, a guy with an M of 80 can stack a guy with an M of 60. 40 can't. I'm not saying it's necessarily a big advantage, because it doesn't come up often, but it is an advantage.

Edit: A second point I think is important, which someone else made, is that the larger stack is further away from having to worry about going broke. Because he's betting less valuable chips, he's freer to make close chip EV+ plays.

Of course, whether to take a 50/50 to double up early is a key part of the question. I don't have answers, just thoughts. Good thread.

P.S. This has definitely been talked about here a few times before. Still a good revisiting of it.