River spot with 99

[Joe Tall]

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50-100 Stud 8.

Only 2 low cards up. I have (6s 7s) Js and limp along in EP with the other low card. He's weak passive. If I'm in LP I raise. If there's more low cards I fold. 3 way with the BI, who's a loose, bad calling station.

We all brick high on 4th, I bet, they call.

I low on 5th, they brick. I bet, BI calls.

I low on 6th and pick up a fl dr. I bet, BI folds. I'm sure he had a weak but better hand. I win with J high and outs simply by playing their heads and their hands.


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Consider folding 3rd street. With the J-up your hand is face up too often. There aren't many low hands, therefore, your hand is going to play poorly for high vs the many high hands. This is really tough to analyze without knowing what were the actual up cards and how live spades, Jacks,4,5,6,7 were. After that, you played well, and regardless if he had the better hand, you were the likely favorite, he made a good fold (granted a few streets to late.

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50-100 O8.

UTG raises and it's folded back to me. He's agro good and has a good hand from there. But I can play his hand. I call the BB with A34Q suited A.

Flop T74 I ch/c his standard continuation bet because he'll ch a turn brick with a good low hand but keep betting with AA.

Turn J. Ch/ch. River brick I'll win.

River T. I bet, he folds. Same as other hand. I routinely win pots with nothing by playing their heads and hands. Basically playing well.

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Given the read on your opponent, looks like he has no-pair on the turn, and you should check and call to induce a bluff bet since you have the best hand and only a better hand will pay you off when you bet. His holding is likely A2Kxds, type.

[Lestat]

why does he have to be 90% certain? you're counting fold equity, right?

I'm sure I play more by feel, cuz I'm not as adept or quick at math as some of you guys.

I'm not getting into another pissing war with you. If you think I'm wrong, spell it out without getting personal. Otherwise, put me on ignore. I've made my living off limit hold'em for the last 12 years and don't need you to tell me what game I should be playing (I do play NL btw). Math or not, you don't impress me.

[Lestat]

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where did this come from? I don't think anything lestat has said is out of line in this thread

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He's a math nerd and thinks that automatically makes him a great poker player. I admit it gives him an advantages if he does everything else well. But I doubt that.

[Victor]

not really. ive realized for a long time that i suck at limit but i can analyze flaws in players who are far richer than me.

[Victor]

also, why do you guys automatically think that im challenging your livelihood? you made a living for 12 yrs, congrats. ive done it for xxxx amount of time but ive never put that in a post (till now i suppose.)

you clearly approach the game in a different way than me. no i would hate to ignore you. do you really want to igrnoe me? did i not help you in a certain scenario? well, im would love for you to give me some tips on this socalled feel that is so provacative and profitable. but no, instead i am insulted for reverting to math and logic.

im challenging you so that i amy find some insight into your approach. if its some zen voodoo [censored], which at this point is all i have to go on, then im gonna be skeptical to say the least.

in the end i agree with mikel, just as i have for the last 6 yrs. lhe is a fckn sham.

[Lestat]

I guess I don't understand what relevance quips on how often I'm sure about what my opponents have, the sudden recollection that I use feel when I play, or what game you think I should be playing, have to do with OP's play (or my comments), being so terrible.


I think you should just explain why you think a play is wrong, what and why you would've done something differently, and yeah... Go ahread and back it up with math if you can. But why not leave the personal slights out of it? This is supposed to be a strategy forum, and I don't think OP is the first to feel that some people have more insults than helpful advice.

[geormiet]

I generally hate the hating, but with this OP and his attitude I was more than happy to see it pile on.

[Victor]

lestat, my main qualm with your analysis was your understanding of 90%. its very rare that i am a 90% fav and when i am, and i lose, well, the neighbors know too.

[Lestat]

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lestat, my main qualm with your analysis was your understanding of 90%. its very rare that i am a 90% fav and when i am, and i lose, well, the neighbors know too.

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To be honest, I'm not sure where this 90% came from. I never used this figure. I assume you're saying the cost of a turn c/r (7 to 2), needs a 90% accuracy rate that two nines is the best hand at the moment?

You could be right, but is that what you're saying? There are 7 big bets in the pot when he decides to check/raise. Now you also need to account for any immediate or river fold equity from a better hand (granted it's not much). So here's where I can learn from you...

If the button's range pre-flop is 40% of his hands (OP described him as laggy. Is this unreasonable?), then according to my pokerstove, 99 has about a 54% equity on a QJ53r board against his range. Am I not using stove right?

*Of course, after the button raises the flop, his range needs to be narrowed. Probably by a lot. But I still say smaller pairs and any straight draw and possibly backdoor draws might be within his range. So where do we get the 90% from?

I'm definitely not above learning what you know about using math and stove to calculate hand equities and playing accordingly.

[Victor]

op said he was ahead 90% on the turn. thats why we were piling on. from your post i thought/misinterpreted that you were telling us to just trust ops claim bc he had a read/feeling. i just think even with a read its impossible to believe we are ahead 90% (as op claimed and i perhaps mistakenly thought u were defending)