SSNL [cheese] thread: JUNE 2007 (nc)

[luckybacon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
confession: i've been running 20/16 today [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there something wrong with this? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I've been running 20/13 today and they still shipped the MSNL $. Stats are so overrated. Just play poker.

Lucky



[/ QUOTE ]


just be careful lucky. i doubt with those stats you are going to be a big winner at the 3/6 or 5/10 game for sure. you have a very small sample your basing it on. and the good players probably will be able to exploit your weaknesses once they get more hands

[tufat23]

i think we should wait it out and see, but running those kinda preflop stats will generally mean that you wont win for more than 2PTBB/100 at msnl in the long run.


i hope i'm wrong, but its something to think about

[joeblack]

luckybacon, I think Lucky is very intelligent and knows what he is doing. I think he was playing those games because they were weak. Table selection.

[willw9]

WOWOWOWOW PT WAS COMPLETELY ACCURATE TODAY!!

[cbloom]

[ QUOTE ]
i think we should wait it out and see, but running those kinda preflop stats will generally mean that you wont win for more than 2PTBB/100 at msnl in the long run.


i hope i'm wrong, but its something to think about

[/ QUOTE ]

2PTBB/100 at NL $10 is pretty good.

[lucky_mf]

Villain in both is this 32/17 LAG who bets light and likes to float with middle pairs and stuff but will fold them. Spew or good?

The first one is ok - at least you have some outs in case you get called. I don't like the second one at all.

[ QUOTE ]
ps. also 3bet preflop is probably better in both of these I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
ps. also 3bet preflop is probably better in both of these I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? You have marginal hands and a guy that likes to call. His pre-flop raises are small and yet he is willing to put in a decent amount of money post flop. My generally strategy here would be to make a hand and value bet it aggressively (or let him bluff off). You can call his pre-flop raises cheaply and they way he is playing you have implied odds with a wide range of hands. I think this approach is probably better against this type of opponent that trying to push him off hands.

Lucky

[luckybacon]

[ QUOTE ]
luckybacon, I think Lucky is very intelligent and knows what he is doing. I think he was playing those games because they were weak. Table selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

im sure he is. Ive had a good amount of experience at that level and im just giving him some advice. Im sure he is very intelligent and has a great style thats winning for him now, but id just be surprised if he could be a "good" longterm winner at those levels with those stats. Im not trying to be critical in any way but trying to be helpful

[tufat23]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
luckybacon, I think Lucky is very intelligent and knows what he is doing. I think he was playing those games because they were weak. Table selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

im sure he is. Ive had a good amount of experience at that level and im just giving him some advice. Im sure he is very intelligent and has a great style thats winning for him now, but id just be surprised if he could be a "good" longterm winner at those levels with those stats. Im not trying to be critical in any way but trying to be helpful

[/ QUOTE ]


lucky_mf is definitely a smarter person than me, and hey, em2 plays like a nit

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Barry has this thing where he buys in for the min. If he builds it up, he plays deep, if he loses he buys in for the min again or just quits. That way he only ever loses a little and might win a lot. In theory this is very -EV and most 2+2ers think he's dumb for doing it, but it is an effective tilt control and stop loss mechanism.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't seem massively -EV to me. He is basically ensuring that he will be playing more when he is running-playing well and less when he is not. If I could manage to do the same thing I would have a lot more $.

Lucky

[/ QUOTE ]

The goal though should be to try to maximize the time spent playing your best. Trying to control luck is absurd. Every hand should be viewed as an independant event. I havent read the theory but based on what I see here I suspect he is playing a large % of his hands short stacked trying to build up to play deep stacked. IMO this is good if you are a losing player trying to have fun but definitely not good if you want to win monies.

[/ QUOTE ]

Barry has elaborated on this in the past. He is well aware of stop/loss fallacies and such and isn't under any illusions about that.

This is about:

1) Tilt control. If you tilt badly when you run badly, then stop/lossing is +EV. This is just fact. You can say "Well, it's even more +EV to NOT TILT". This is true as well but completely irrelevant (and, btw, usually quoted by people that are blessed with not having tilt issues in the first place [I hate you all. You know who you are.]). Let's assume (since Barry is a smart guy) that he has explored trying not to tilt and it doesn't work well for him. Knowing your limitations (e.g. "I can't control my emotions very well.") is key to being a winning player -- and if you know your limitations and counter-act them, this is nearly as good as not having the limitations in the first place.

2) There is a lot of truth to the fact that many players don't play well against competent short-stackers. I'm thinking now of Season 2 of HSP, when Barry opened from UTG, Daniel Negreanu re-raised, got one cold caller, and Barry pushed. Daniel called with JJ getting about 1.2 to 1 or so, and this is like, the easiest [censored] fold in the world because Barry's range is QQ+/AK given he's short-stacking.

[luckybacon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
luckybacon, I think Lucky is very intelligent and knows what he is doing. I think he was playing those games because they were weak. Table selection.

[/ QUOTE ]

im sure he is. Ive had a good amount of experience at that level and im just giving him some advice. Im sure he is very intelligent and has a great style thats winning for him now, but id just be surprised if he could be a "good" longterm winner at those levels with those stats. Im not trying to be critical in any way but trying to be helpful

[/ QUOTE ]


lucky_mf is definitely a smarter person than me, and hey, em2 plays like a nit

[/ QUOTE ]

haha very true, but it seems like hes moved down and trying to change up his game now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. but i wish lucky the best of luck and i hope you keep tearing it up!!!