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#631
05-09-2007, 10:55 PM
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Re: NL Bots on Full Tilt
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] One big thing you guys continue to miss is that all players had to send in ID's and utility bills to FTP in the beginning of the investigation. [/ QUOTE ] And what this have to do with anything? [/ QUOTE ] Umm, it has to do with people asking for pictures of setup and pictures of the individual players. 
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#632
05-09-2007, 10:55 PM
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Re: NL Bots on Full Tilt
NOSUP4U,
The guy is his best friend! THAT is why it is relevant!
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#633
05-09-2007, 10:57 PM
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Re: NL Bots on Full Tilt
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 2) You people that are saying the stats are 'similar' and maybe these guys all just play the same style, or that they are all in the same room using the same set of general rules to play ARE JUST CRAZY! There is no way that one individual person could record stats that EXACT over 2 100K hand sessions if they tried. Like, we aren't just talking about vpip and pfr. EVERY stat in pokertracker was identical. Every single one. I'm far from an expert, but my background is engineering and I've done a ton of statistical analysis. That is just too large a sample size for the numbers to be that exact. PLUS you have to factor in things like tilt that come into play in poker. Are you telling me that even two guy sitting next to each other reading from the same 'playbook' of how to play, could stick to that plan so perfectly that things like tilt would just never take over? I don't like to rush to judgement on anything, but the stats ALONE are just unbelievable enough to me for 3 people to have so exactly, and then when you factor other things in like they getting up from tables, never playing together, names linked to pittsburg, etc, the evidence seems overwhelming to me. Mark [/ QUOTE ] Nation and sweatshop owner, care to comment? There is no way you individually over 2 100k samples could have those identical stats, yet alone 4 different players. You honestly do not believe that is possible/logical, do you? [/ QUOTE ] what part of it being a "system" don't you undestand. We created it together, and studied it together. And then we try to give each other advice during our sessions...all of this will create identical numbers...and all of this is allowed by FTP T&C
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#635
05-09-2007, 10:58 PM
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Re: NL Bots on Full Tilt
[ QUOTE ]
FTP has gone over all hand histories and mouse clicks or whatever else they track, and cleared it. [/ QUOTE ] ORLY? since when does FTP (or any poker site for that matter) publish facts for investigations of shady behavior.
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#636
05-09-2007, 10:58 PM
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Re: NL Bots on Full Tilt
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] They've already been cleared 100% by FTP, this is for your benefit and whether you believe them or not has no bearing on the fate of their accounts. [/ QUOTE ] Not so if FT thinks they might have been snowed and is willing to re-open the investigation, *especially* to determine how the explanation of the players can be true with the virtually identical stats *taking into account the far greater range of situations postflop than pre*. [/ QUOTE ] No. This is basically devolving into a "do i believe you or not" question. FTP has gone over all hand histories and mouse clicks or whatever else they track, and cleared it. You asking your questions is not going to convince FTP to reopen the investigation, and subsequently change their mind on stuff thats apparently unprovable. [/ QUOTE ] If FT is in fact unwilling to re-open the investigation, or at the very least to provide a FAR greater explanation for their rationale in clearing those accounts, then this will be an unmitigated public relations and customer service DISASTER for them. Of course you maintain the contrary because you are defending your friend heedless of the counter arguments (you still haven't addressed the post-flop issue!).
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#637
05-09-2007, 10:58 PM
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Re: NL Bots on Full Tilt
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] WTF, I'm rusty on my statistics, but are you going to tell me that a .5% difference in VPIP over 100,000 hands is 3 SD's? [censored], post your math. [/ QUOTE ] (14%)*(1-14%)/sqrt(100000) = .038% = 1SD Of course it's higher than that because all 100,000 decisions are not independent identically distributed. [/ QUOTE ] I think the test statistic formula is .005/sqrt(.14*.86/100000) = 4.6 Assuming independence, and I'm just using a textbook formula for population proportions. [/ QUOTE ] We just went over this last week at work.. (sigma) = squareroot( (sumation((x-change of x)squared) divided by n-1 [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure what this refers to. But can't we also use the Goodness of Fit test for this? We have 4 suspected bots in the OP's screenshot: VPIP1: 14376/105366 = 0.136438699 VPIP2: 15840/112514 = 0.14078248 VPIP3: 11683/82577 = 0.141480073 VPIP4: 5721/41414 = 0.138141691 The total VPIP is 47620/341871 = 0.139292306 So if they are indeed botting, the expected hands played of the 4 bots should be: 14676.67 15672.33 11502.34 5768.65 respectively Throwing it into my calculator for GOF, using 3 degrees of freedom, we get a p-value of .0108, which means there's just over 1% chance that this happened by chance if we assume the 4 players were using a similar strategy. [/ QUOTE ] I have no idea what I am talking about... I was just excited to use that formula [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#638
05-09-2007, 10:59 PM
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Re: NL Bots on Full Tilt
BluffThis,
even though you are basically a glorified troll these days when it comes to online poker ethics/legalities and for some reason enjoy playing devil's advocate in every discussion, i will continue to answer questions as best as i can. whether you choose to believe me is up to you, and it will not change what happens to these accounts as action has already been taken and concluded.
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#639
05-09-2007, 10:59 PM
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Re: NL Bots on Full Tilt
[ QUOTE ]
what part of it being a "system" don't you undestand. We created it together, and studied it together. And then we try to give each other advice during our sessions...all of this will create identical numbers...and all of this is allowed by FTP T&C [/ QUOTE ] DOESN'T EXPLAIN POST-FLOP. ANSWER THE [censored] QUESTION ADDRESSED TO YOU EARLIER ON THIS!
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#640
05-09-2007, 10:59 PM
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Re: NL Bots on Full Tilt
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Let's not forget the tournament they played together. One confirmed, how many other times did this happen? I assume there's a site with full tournament records. [/ QUOTE ] Is there anything wrong with playing MTT with your friends? I am being serious. [/ QUOTE ] Please serach the online tourney databases and see how many MTT's we played alone vs a few we may have played together.
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