** Official June Chat Thread: The Flush **

[chicken10der]

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After 1,000,000 hands, I'm gonna be about +/- $10,000 of my expectation playing 100NL.

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That reduces to +/- 1 buyin per 10k hands (with lower confidence interval for smaller sample sizes), so it's not that outlandish.

[TheProdigy]

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After 1,000,000 hands, I'm gonna be about +/- $10,000 of my expectation playing 100NL.

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That reduces to +/- 1 buyin per 10k hands (with lower confidence interval for smaller sample sizes), so it's not that outlandish.

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lol, I don't think so, I think the evidence says something more like the variance is still there after 1mill hands and you still can be way off your expected value. Meaning the less hands you have the more variance it will have...right?

So you are looking at being +2,-3,+5,-4,+6 buy-ins in 10k hands and all of those aren't that crazy because even after 1mill hands you still have a pretty big difference in what you could have and what you should have..

I'm one of those guys that is going to be +10k over expected if my luckbox can continue..

Buuutt not with hands like this:
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $106.45
BB: $376.35
UTG: $46.35
UTG+1: $297.65
<font color="black">Hero (MP1): $245.05</font>
MP2: $193.00
MP3: $121.00
CO: $242.70
BTN: $220.45

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, MP2 calls $8.00, MP3 folds, CO calls $8.00, 2 folds, BB calls $6.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($33) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $20.00</font>, MP2 calls $20.00, CO folds, BB calls $20.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($93) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets $66.00</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $217.05</font>, MP2 calls all-in for $99.00
Uncalled bet of $52.05 returned to Hero

<font color="black">River:</font> ($423) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $423.00 ($3 Rake)

MP2 had Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a full house, Queens full of Deuces) and WON (+$227.00)
Hero had 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a full house, Nines full of Deuces) and LOST (-$193.00)

Edit: If you are wondering, this was actually a pretty tight table thus the raise but I got a lot more action than I ever suspected..P.S. I had already clicked sit out of tables so I could end my sesh being +170..that was my last hand and it brought me to the - side grrrr

[1p0kerboy]

Hopefully MTTR can answer this one. But anybody feel free to chime in.

There was a stink a while back in one of the forums where a poster pointed out that Pokertracker actually counts the SD wrong. Do you remember where that was or if it ever got resolved?

[chicken10der]

I think I worded it wrong. I didn't mean a given 10(x)k sample would have a +/- 1(x) buyin expectation value, just that at around the 800k-1M hand level it's not that huge even if you are running at the very edge of the interval (upper and lower 2.25 percentiles).

[TheProdigy]

Understood, and I think I agree..God I need to read that book..

Pokerboy where can I get it at?

[1p0kerboy]

Also, what is yall's SD (session notes&gt; more detail tab) and at what level?

At 100NL mine is 26.2ptBB/100.

[1p0kerboy]

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Pokerboy where can I get it at?


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1000 fpp in Stars' store.

Also, Amazon.com.

I just started it, but most of it looks very complicated. I think it can help your overall poker game, but expect to do some work while you're reading it.

[chicken10der]

38.48ptbb/100 at 100NL-FR with 2.93ptbb/100 WR

So 99.7% of the time, 100 hands will result in the interval of [-112.51ptbb, +118.37ptbb] which would be [-$225.02, +$236.74]

Awesome

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Hopefully MTTR can answer this one. But anybody feel free to chime in.

There was a stink a while back in one of the forums where a poster pointed out that Pokertracker actually counts the SD wrong. Do you remember where that was or if it ever got resolved?

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from what I recall,
pt calculates standard deviation by looking at the standard deviation per session

it will understate the deviation for those that play longer session and overstate it for those that play shorter ones

I haven't looked into it for awhile, but I think that is what happens.

[1p0kerboy]

[ QUOTE ]
from what I recall,
pt calculates standard deviation by looking at the standard deviation per session

it will understate the deviation for those that play longer session and overstate it for those that play shorter ones

I haven't looked into it for awhile, but I think that is what happens.


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The thing I hate about the sessions tab on PT is that it doesn't restart sessions every so often. For example, if I open a table at 8AM and play it until 2PM, my results end up in the 8AM-10AM block. It's really frustrating when I try to compare results by time period.

I suggested to change this in the PT forums but nobody every responded.

Anyways, I'm comparing certain time blocks in my database and I don't notice much difference between those where I certainly played shorted sessions and those that I played longer. So maybe the difference is really small, especially over a large sample.

Chicken10der, your SD seems high. (Maybe mine is just low). Are you a very loose-agressive player? I don't think we have any hands together. FWIW, I'm typically a 14/8.