** NBA Conference Finals **

[Hornacek]

JofA, that's very likely. Game 6 = biggest game in eastern Conference Playoffs thus far. Too bad the West has completely annihilated the East in terms of great playoff games this year.

[Bulldog]

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Well Dallas is also much improved from last year, just saying that b/c PHO is tied in a series w/ Dallas right now then they would cake walk through them and through the finals with Amare is naive. You still have to play the games, the way PHO plays disrupts the flow of ANY team whether they have Raja go down or Amare go down or anyone except for Nash, just about under any circumstance they have the potential to push any series to 7 games and/or win the series no matter who is on the court just b/c they are dangerous...they also have a lot of holes too, and is why a severly less talented Lakers team nearly sent them home.

Before game 4 everyone on this board was counting PHO out and I pop in and say that "I still think the PHO/Dal series is far from over" and then PHO goes on to win game 4 and now everyone can't get off their nuts. They are a tough team with or without Amare b/c of the brand of basketball they play but I also don't see that brand as being the kind to take home the title. We will see if I am wrong.

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First of all, theres a good chance it would be over if Bell didnt come back, which is why me and others wrote off the suns, cause he wasnt expected to play. His contributions go much further then 9 points. You talk like it doesnt matter who they send out there, when I am telling you it does. They still havent been a deep team, and are a team that would greatly improve from being deep. Then when you add Stoudemire and Thomas, it makes them MUCH harder to pound in the post, which is the advantage every team has been using on them, not to mention the boards, which they no longer would get dominated on. I shouldnt need to go further, but they would transform into a team that could win more then one way.


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It will be like playing the Clippers, only instead of Sam Cassell, it will be Dwyane Wade. And instead of Mike Dunleavy, Pat Riley and his rings say hi.


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Bulldog, you are an idiot. Why dont you go make another hallway series thread? Brand was not nearly the defensive liability that Shaq would be, and Shaq is at the point in his career where he cant be dominant every single night (see bulls series.) And I love how you dont mention the rest of the supporting cast, where the Clippers had some youth go to up and down with the Suns, while the Heat are old and slow and would get ran off the court.

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The would not get "ran" off the court or run off the court.

Cuttino Mobley is 30 years old (similar to Walker, Williams, and Posey) and he played 41 MPG in the Phoenix series. He didn't wear out.

If they both make it, by that time, Phoenix will have played between 2 and 4 more games than Miami. Perhaps it will be a short-handed team playing an uptempo style for an extra 200 minutes that will be fatigued.

Also, you are seriously underestimating the difference between Dunleavy and Riley if you don't think that tips the scales significantly.

OTOH, you do a have two-time MVP, while we only have a one-time MVP. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]


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Anyway I dont want to go any further til the matchup is set, the most likely matchup right now is Mavs/Heat so we should talk about that if anything.

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If you don't like discussing sports, you are in the wrong place.

[LearnedfromTV]

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At this point in the Cavs series (Pistons down 3-2), people posted that sportsbooks had Pistons at 62% likely to win or something. What's the line in this series?

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27% [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

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Sounds right. About 45% to win tonight, and about 60% to win Sunday if they get there.

0.45 * 0.60 = 0.27

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I'd say 0.40*0.75 = 0.30

And I think I'm being conservative on Game 7 (and maybe a bit optimistic on Game 6). Historically, doesn't the home team win > 80% of Game 7s? Add having to go on the road to win a game 7 after being up 3-1. I know Dallas did it. Still.

[Hornacek]

So did the Pistons against the Heat last year, and were 5 minutes away in the Finals as well.

Pistons historically play great on the road (and esp with their back against the wall), but this year's team seems foreign to me.

[LearnedfromTV]

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but this year's team seems foreign to me.

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[Artdogg]

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Anyway I dont want to go any further til the matchup is set, the most likely matchup right now is Mavs/Heat so we should talk about that if anything.



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If you don't like discussing sports, you are in the wrong place.

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I dont care that much, just would rather talk about events that are going to happen rather then those that might happen. And Riley would be an upgrade obviously, in this particular matchup him and Wade would be the upgrades to what the Clippers had, while the rest would be downgrades. Not saying overall talent, just in this particular matchup.


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I'd say 0.40*0.75 = 0.30

And I think I'm being conservative on Game 7 (and maybe a bit optimistic on Game 6). Historically, doesn't the home team win > 80% of Game 7s? Add having to go on the road to win a game 7 after being up 3-1. I know Dallas did it. Still.

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Im going with .30*.90= 27%. This team is foreign, but if they find a way to win in Miami I cant see them losing at home. If Dallas had Terry for game 6 I dont think they would have lost, while if they had him and lost game 6 I dont think they would have won game 7. I never put much into psychological hits til every analyst starting talking about them every game.

[Bulldog]

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Im going with .30*.90= 27%.

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Now here's a bet I can get behind (unlike my overstatement about the Blue Jays). If Detroit wins game six and Miami takes a healthy team to Detroit for a game seven, I'd love to get some action at 9 to 1.

[CharlieDontSurf]

Yeah...I figure Miami will win in game 6...but if they have to go Det for Game 7...I figure instead of being a 50/50 for both teams to win...Miami would be 40/45 to win.

Pistons aren't that good. Their offense still sucks..their defense is getting a bit better....but their defense didn't make Miami miss 15 free throws.


1 Game is easy...2 Games is harder...3 Games is really [censored] hard...homecourt or not.

[Hornacek]

I'm not going to get into it. Fact of the matter is, we need two wins, anything less, and it doesn't even matter.

[Phoenix1010]

Links to two games that the Clippers won? Are you serious? They lost the series.

Brand had a great series, but he didn't win the series by himself even though Phoenix had "no answer for him," and at this point in their careers he is a more productive offensive player than Shaq is.

Also recognize that stats for any Phoenix game are inflated because of how many more possesions there are per game. Phoenix got plenty of stops against Brand that don't show up on the stat sheet because he was forced to pass out of the post, and he was forced to take plenty of short-range jumpshots, something he does far better than Shaq or anyone else in the league.

On the other end, Phoenix absolutely demolished Shaq's counterpart in the Clippers series, Chris Kaman. And it's funny because he's just like Shaq on defense, except younger and more mobile. The way Phoenix pushes the ball on every inbound, are you really saying that Shaq won't present the same liability?

When Phoenix has four perimeter players on the floor, which is almost every minute, exploiting Shaq for a layup or a wide open three will be child's play no matter what Miami does. They are going to get outscored every second that Shaq is on the floor.

And very nice selective examples in the last part. Wade and Riley are upgrades, while Shaq is a downgrade. Only instead of Corey Magette, Quentin Ross, and Cuttino Mobley to guard the perimeter and hit open shots, you have Antoine Walker, James Posey, and Jason Williams to botch assignments and brick open looks. And the whole say hi thing is beyond stupid at this point.