|
|
#51
03-20-2006, 06:34 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Red Sox Trade Arroyo to Reds for Wily Mo Pena
[ QUOTE ]
A friend who is more in the know than most told me he'd heard that this was the beginning of something bigger. Apparently, the Mets want Soriano badly and are willing to give up Lastings Milledge for him. Jim Bowden wants Wily Mo in DC and is unwilling to trade within the division. He trades Soriano to the Sox, then Boston flips him to the Mets. Don't know if it'll go down, but the idea has a lot of merit. [/ QUOTE ] interesting... what does boston get out of all of that? 
|
|
#52
03-20-2006, 06:37 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Red Sox Trade Arroyo to Reds for Wily Mo Pena
[ QUOTE ]
interesting... what does boston get out of all of that? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Apparently, the Mets want Soriano badly and are willing to give up Lastings Milledge for him. [/ QUOTE ]
|
|
#53
03-20-2006, 06:53 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Red Sox Trade Arroyo to Reds for Wily Mo Pena
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] interesting... what does boston get out of all of that? [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Apparently, the Mets want Soriano badly and are willing to give up Lastings Milledge for him. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] oh, ok. that makes sense. there seemed to be enough steps involved that Milledge might go elsewhere...then again, i sorta skimmed it.
|
|
#54
03-20-2006, 07:01 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Red Sox Trade Arroyo to Reds for Wily Mo Pena
Wily Mo has excellent power, and not a ton else. The Sox are hoping that he'll develop the ability to draw walks. It's not unreasonable; Wily Mo is only 24 and spent no time in the minors for the past two years, which probably stunted his development to some degree. He'll be a solid RF when Nixon inevitably goes down.
Arroyo had an ERA of 4.50 last year. That's not very good. The Sox have too many starters as it is. Although Schilling and Beckett are notoriously fragile, Arroyo doesn't have much of a future on this team with Papelbon and Lester coming up. If the Red Sox can turn Bronson Arroyo into Lastings Milledge, that's just amazing. Give Theo the GM of the year award for that. I'm not sure what the hell the Reds are doing. Arroyo's K rate has declined a ton from his breakout 2004 season, and he hasn't compensated for it by walking fewer batters or giving up fewer HRs. For the first time in forever, the Reds had a managable outfield situation. A lineup of Freel-Lopez-Dunn-Griffey-Pena-Kearns-Larue/Valentin-Encarnacion is filthy; in that ball park, they score at least 900 runs. Now, they have to play Freel in the outfield and Aurilia at SS, and they got a league average pitcher (who doesn't strike anyone out) in return. No good.
|
|
#56
03-20-2006, 07:48 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Red Sox Trade Arroyo to Reds for Wily Mo Pena
PECOTA thinks the Red Sox got away with a steal.
Pena has a breakout rate of 53%, improve rate of 69%, and has a "stars and scrubs" chart that shows a ton of dark green (superstar - roughly 20-35% chance the next 5 years). Arroyo on the other hand has little upside, and has a very yellow (average player) chart.
|
|
#57
03-20-2006, 07:48 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Red Sox Trade Arroyo to Reds for Wily Mo Pena
[ QUOTE ]
Now, they have to play Freel in the outfield and Aurilia at SS [/ QUOTE ] No. They'll play Hatteberg/Dunn at 1B, Womack/Freel at 2B, Lopez/Aurilia at SS, Encarnacion/Aurilia at 3B, with Kearns-Griffey-Dunn in the OF and Freel/Wise spelling them on their days off. Freel will play almost every day one way or the other...I admittedly don't understand the Womack signing, but oh well, at least they got some speed. Maybe Selig will change the rules so he can run the bases for Griffey. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Aurilia is trade-bait. Call me crazy, but I think Hatteberg will actually be an immediate improvement over Pena offensively, though probably not long-term. He's an OBP machine and he'll hit a few HR in that park. I think he'll fill Casey's role just fine. The only problem is it puts another lefty in the lineup. I think Arroyo may be slightly better than a league average pitcher when you factor in his age and his cost. Even though he's headed to the Great American Smallpark, Fenway isn't easy on pitchers either, and he'll only have to face 8 hitters as opposed to 9. Not to mention we won't have some random minor leaguer out there getting flogged every fifth day.
|
|
#58
03-20-2006, 08:04 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Red Sox Trade Arroyo to Reds for Wily Mo Pena
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Now, they have to play Freel in the outfield and Aurilia at SS [/ QUOTE ] Call me crazy, but I think Hatteberg will actually be an immediate improvement over Pena offensively, though probably not long-term. He's an OBP machine and he'll hit a few HR in that park. I think he'll fill Casey's role just fine. The only problem is it puts another lefty in the lineup. [/ QUOTE ] lemme be the first to say....crazy
|
|
#59
03-20-2006, 08:08 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Red Sox Trade Arroyo to Reds for Wily Mo Pena
[ QUOTE ]
He's an OBP machine. [/ QUOTE ] Not to let facts get in the way of your fantasy, but Hatteberg had a below average OBP last year.
|
|
#60
03-20-2006, 08:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Red Sox Trade Arroyo to Reds for Wily Mo Pena
IMO this deal leaves the red sox approximately off even and hurts cinncinati in the big picture.
the sox lose a cheap, not old dependable above average pitcher who can pitch in boston. they get a young player who right now is an average hitter and fielder who can fill a sox OF gap. he has a big upside. i dont see how this is better than even for boston... i see how it hurts cincy since they get a #4 starter but gave up a player who could be really good in 5 years when they might possibly contend for something.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
