Tigers trade for Renteria

[rwperu34]

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yougn cheap #4 starters are very valuable, and moving to the NL also helps a lot

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So are starting shortstops. Even more so.

[Vyse]

no one said the tigers sucked in the trade. it was good for them. just helped the braves a lot lot lot more.

renteria isn't a cheap starting ss. he's $10 a year for two years. while that's better than the FA market, a LAIM for the next five years is much more better than what's in the FA.

they didn't give up any value next season -- i'd argue they gained some, but it's semantics like ~1 win either way -- but got way way way more in the future and a lot of present flexibility now (about what, $9 million?). if that turns into tom glavine, it's glavine + escobar + jurrjens for rent. that's rape.

[rwperu34]

I'd also like to point out, if the Tigers let Renteria go after 2009, the first round picks they'd get for him are nearly as valuable as Jurrjens.

[Vyse]

well, i guess not:

Now, Renteria undoubtedly has some surplus value on his contract as well. Signed at $10 million for 2008 and to an $11 million team option for 2009, Renteria would probably cost somewhere between $15-$20 million per season if he was in the market for a new two-year deal today. He will also very probably be a Type A free agent when departs after 2009. Two years ago, I valued the Type A compensation picks at $12 million, and they are very probably worth a little more than that today given the inflation in the market. If we had to work all this up into some sort of balance sheet, it would probably look as follows:

Player Surplus Value
Hernandez $25-$40 million
Jurrjens $10-$20 million
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Braves Total $35-$60 million

Player Surplus Value
Renteria $10-$20 million
Type A FA Compensation $15-$20 million
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Tigers Total $25-$40 million

edit: and of course that's not adding the $9.5 million saved.

editx2: and not to mention the tigers could just leave guillen at SS and devote those resources to getting a 1B that doesn't suck. unless guillen hits a lot better at 1B than at SS i have no idea why they're switcing him.

[rwperu34]

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editx2: and not to mention the tigers could just leave guillen at SS and devote those resources to getting a 1B that doesn't suck. unless guillen hits a lot better at 1B than at SS i have no idea why they're switcing him.


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A couple of reasons. First, there is no readily available first baseman anywhere near the ballpark of Guillen. For example, the Yankees best bet is going to be to stick with Mainagjd;jdsfkl;jz. Sean Casey and Scott Hatteberg are the the next two. Second, they moved him over there to protect his knees. Hopefully this will help reduce his injury risk.

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edit: and of course that's not adding the $9.5 million saved.

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Since we're talking surplus value, I believe the money saved is included. Otherwise Renteria's value would be more along the lines of $30MM-$40MM.

[Vyse]

I know the reasons why. The reasons are horrible, though. One, the injury risk is related to his value. Guillen for 130 games at SS is way better than Guillen at 150 games for 1B. His defense isn't bad enough at SS to come close to hurting his offensive value there, while his offensive value at 1B is average and I doubt his D is really gonna be good enough to make up the difference. The likelihood is that Guillen is just a league average 1B compared to a studly SS.

If that's all he is, then it's ez ez ez to get an average 1B or anything better than LMFAO SEAN CASEY. Move Sheffy to 1B and get an OF. Or go trade for Mike Jacobs. There are a ton of 1B to trade for, it's not hard.

The Yankees' "best bet" isn't sticking with their horrible 1Bs, it's just their most probable bet with the info we have so far. But you'll find no one knowledgable who thinks they should; they have to aim higher or get raped, and in the end I think they will.

point 2 makes sense

edit: yes i know guillen's an injury risk but he's still played 150+ games the past two seasons at SS. there is little upside then to move him to 1B -- for what, 160 games? whatever, just pace and rest him for 130 games at SS, whatever. They have other solid SS options in the short-term like omar infante for 1-2 games a week or whatever. That type of utility guy isn't very hard to find.

[rwperu34]

Also, your assesment that they have a lot of work to do to be the 4th best team in the AL is off. The Tigers line up well with this free agent market. Their two most glaring needs are 3B and LF/DH. Even if Bonds and A-Rod both sign in the NL, the Tigers are clearly with the Yankees, Indians, Red Sox and Angels and well ahead of the Twins, Blue Jays, Devil Rays...etc. In fact, as the Rosters stand right now, the Tigers are the best team in the AL. They weren't before this deal.

[Vyse]

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In fact, as the Rosters stand right now, the Tigers are the best team in the AL.

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I thought you were being reasonable, but come on. If you can't be reasonable this is a waste of both of our time.

[rwperu34]

Renteria has been better than Guillen defensively and most importantly projects to be better in 2008. Using BP's stats, Guillen was very good at first base in a small sample (32 games), better than Casey. Renteria is about equal with Casey on offense, maybe slightly better. They definitely improved their team over last season, and let's not act like Casey didn't make $4MM or so.


I think you underestimate Carlos Guillen's offensive worth. His EQA over the last four years, .299, .316, .291, .316. That .291 was an injury plagued year. I don't know what the average 1b is, but I doubt it's over .300.

Haven't we seen the Sheffield to 1b experiment? If he could handle first, don't you think he'd still be a Yankee? Mike Jacobs is the best you can trade for? You might as well go with Meinalkgjdjdsz and get the glove.

Guillen to first is not necessarily optimal, but if it keeps him healthy and happy, it's a move that's worth making when you can get a quality MLB shortstop for a B+ CF prospect that's two to three years away and a pitcher that has no place on your team and has #4 upside.

[rwperu34]

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In fact, as the Rosters stand right now, the Tigers are the best team in the AL.

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I thought you were being reasonable, but come on. If you can't be reasonable this is a waste of both of our time.

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YOu realize A-Rod is no longer a Yankee, right? You realize the Red Sox are also without a 3B? You realize the Angels just aren't as good as the Tigers, right? I suppose you could argue the Indians are better right now since their 2008 roster is basically in tact, but I doubt it. No, as the rosters stand right now, the Tigers are the best.