UFC 76

[21times20]

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Rua will not be allowed to kick or stomp grounded opponents, a large portion of his offence. A good full-body-weight heel to the gut kicks the hell out of anyone's gas tank. Not an option here.

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you really think a "large portion" of shogun's fights were him standing while his opponent lay on the ground waiting to get kicked? this is almost as ridiculous as you stating so assertively that kicks to a downed opponent's body aren't allowed in the UFC


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Elbows shouldn't be a problem.

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i disagree here as well, if this fight goes to the ground elbows will definitely be a problem, both for forrest griffin and the guy in charge of mopping up the blood before the liddell/jardine fight


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He can have a much easier time out-pointing Rua in a 5 minute round as opposed to a 10 minute round

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ok i can't argue with you here, griffin will definitely have a better shot at outpointing rua on a round by round basis when you compare to a system that doesn't score by rounds at all

i really don't see why anyone thinks there is any "+EV" in betting forrest here, when you lay chalk on a heavy favorite in mma im pretty sure the main concern is your guy getting caught and knocked out with the proverbial "lucky punch." I have seen nothing in any of griffin's fights to indicate that he has the hand/foot speed to catch an athlete of shogun's caliber off-guard, nor have i seen anything that would lead me to believe that he has the power to knock him out even if he did catch him with something

and forrest winning by decision might be even more of a longshot, i think the level of aggression shogun fights with makes him uniquely suited to avoid a narrow decision loss, especially against a markedly less talented opponent

[Oatmeal]

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Isn't there quite a bit of value in Chuck? I mean he's fighting Jardine. Doesn't he win this near 80% of the time?

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Obviously I got the line wrong when I said this. -450 would have to be 90% of the time to break even, right?

[Performify]

-450 would be break even at ~81.8%

90% break even is -900.

http://www.google.com/search?q=moneyline+converter

-P

[MikeyPatriot]

svj,

While I'd be surprised to see Jardine take this, why do you think he'll charge in wildly against Chuck? Keith comes from Greg Jackson's camp, and if nothing else, Jackson is one of the better gameplanners in MMA. I haven't watched enough Jardine fights (yet) to really pick out a good gameplan for him, but I'd be surprised to see him rush in wildly.

[eljizzle]

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Isn't there quite a bit of value in Chuck? I mean he's fighting Jardine. Doesn't he win this near 95% of the time?

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[DannyOcean_]

I guess I'm rating Forrest's stand up better than everyone else is. I think it's chic to bash forrest in some mma circles just because he started the TUF craze, although there are certainly legitimate criticisms of him. I feel pretty confident in my assessment, but whenever a large % of 2p2 vehemently disagrees, i do pause. Gotta think about this one some more.

[RikaKazak]

I put $500 on Rua at -325...I think due to forest's popularity there are going to be people that bet on him no matter what the line...so bodog intentionally shifted it a little...(like what Wong talks about in his book)

Also I think UFC sometimes over hypes the underdog...

we'll see...I'm a sportsbetting fish so wish me luck [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Dark Helmet]

I hit the Liddell line hard at -280 near when it opened. I think the style matchup is particularly bad for jardine, as his outside boxing is not that great or technically sound, and there is no way chuck will brawl with him.

Im contemplating Tavares, whos at around +135 now on BOF and 5dimes. I'm concerned about it being a close fight that griffin wins via outwrestling. I think Tavares has more tools though and more ways to win.

By the way, if you want to do a quick MMA odds comparison, http://zewkey.com/mma_betting_super_page.htm
is pretty good.

[MikeyPatriot]

DO,

I like Forrest, and I would assume most people do strictly based on his personality from the TUF show. He's a very likable guy.

[svj]

Mikey:

Jardine's style vs. Forrest was to stand fully outside of range, and take a couple of hops forward to come inside for a strike. As Chuck's demonstrated time and again, that's a great way for a Liddell opponent to see the ceiling lights.




21x20:

When the opponent's feet come up to stop Rua, one usually changes his course of flight. There are many, many examples of this in his fights.

If you think Rua is going to risk a DQ by taking a flying stomp attempt that could easily end up on his opponent's head, then hey, more power to you. I just don't think that's a risk that the great Brazilian light-heavyweight hope is likely to take. Especially in what he likely regards to be an easy fight.

I guess we have different opinions on this. (Ridiculous, huh? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) Neither of us are called Shogun, so I guess we'll have to wait for the fight to find out.

Good luck!


PS. Anyone have any thoughts on the Wednesday card? I don't have enough fights on any of those guys but K-Flo to figure anything out.