Hedgie43's Rugby World Cup Picks

[hedgie43]

Phew. Nice try by T-Pole there to cover.

Sides: 12-5, +6.1u
Totals: 0-3, -3.3u

[hedgie43]

Italy +7 vs. Scotland
Risk 1.05u to win 1u

Bortolami is out for Italy, which is a blow, but at +7 they are still value against a Scotland side who have shown almost as little at this RWC as Italy have. Should be a pretty tight snooze-fest.

[hedgie43]

Great kicking by Evans after McAllister went off.

Sides: 13-5, +8.1u
Totals: 0-3, -3.3u

[hedgie43]

Drunken post so beware. Italy covers, Colorado pulls off a program-changing upset in CFB and Cal beats Oregon. AWESOME.

Sides: 14-5, +9.1u
Totals: 0-3, -3.3u

[duggie53]

If you think, as I do, that, Argentina (the Rodney Dangerfield team of this tournament) are going to spank the Irish, there are some great lines out there right now.

Some of my bets include:
Argentina 1st half handicap -1.5pts @-111 (Party Bets)
Also at Party, Argentina to win both halves @ +190!

I also have some serious cash on Argentina to win their group, which is pretty much a lock now. You're probably looking at -350 or more to get this down now, but it's free money.

[hedgie43]

Nice work. Argentina looked really, really good against Ireland. The "any other country" at +3300 bet is looking good now with Argentina looking impressive, although some value was lost with Wales losing to Fiji. Anyway, lines should be out soon for the games but in the mean time I'm on New Zealand not winning the RWC at +117 at the Greek for a unit.

[hedgie43]

Scotland +14 vs. Argentina
Risking 1.1u to win 1u

Would love to see Argentina win this by a lot, but I think it will be a fairly close game. Argentina kicked a lot to France and Ireland's back 3s with success, but the Scots have some dangerous runners in the Lamonts and Patterson if Argentina do this on Sunday. As well, the last few games between Argentina and Scotland have all been decided by less than 10 points. Scotland also has an excellent goal kicker in Patterson who should keep the game close, even if the Scots are well outplayed by the Argies.

[duggie53]

Here are some lines I've found so far, along with my picks:

Aus/Eng Aus -11.5 -110

NZ/France NZ -13 -110

Arg/Scot Scots +15 -110 (Betfred)

SA/Fiji Fiji +38 -110 (Paddy Power)

I'll probably go heaviest on NZ/France, can easily see the AB's covering that spread. As much as I like the argies, they only beat the hapless Irish by 15, and were even behind shortly before HT.

I'm locking in a NZ/SA final -151 (Bet365) and will probably take 1stNZ - 2ndSA +130 (Betfair)as that seems like more than an even chance at this point.

[hedgie43]

Argentina played a complete game against Ireland and can change tactics to get the job done. The Irish weren't great, but they definitely played their best game of the World Cup against the Pumas and the Pumas dealt with it well.

As for an NZ-SA final at -151, I hate this bet. Let's be generous and assume NZ beat France 83% of the time and win their semi-final 80% of the time. Then let's say SA beats Fiji 99% of the time and wins their semifinal 80% of the time. That's not even a 53% chance of that final occuring.

For the second one, using the same analysis and assuming NZ beats SA 80% of the time (again, a generous assumption), the bet is not +EV as this scenario only occurs 42% of the time and you need it to occur 43.5% of the time to make a profit.

[duggie53]

Interesting analysis. I'm obviously counting on the favorites winning, which seems to be more likely in Rugby, than other sports. I'm certainly not going to bet against the mighty All Blacks (my team since I was born there), so you could call these heart bets rather than head bets. My only fear is that the choke factor raises its ugly head again.
What's your take on the other quarters?