i always want to fold but i feel like i'm supposed to call

[Victor]

ok, i proly came off wrong. i shouldnt jump in and act like i know and own the place. sorry msnl. triumph etal, lets kiss and make up.

josh, the more i think about this hand i dont see how you can get away. if you call the flop and the turn blanks now you are laying yourself 400 to win 900 so if aq is in his range you gotta get it in.

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't know if this is correct, but assuming these stats behave as a binomial distribution

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not, because the stats don't. You'd need some data to find what an actual distribution is. I did something similar here. Assuming a normal distribution will lead you to a very misleading range of stats (a 42 VPIP is much more likely than a 58 VPIP). That said, I agree that it would be wrong to completely ignore the stats we have, even a mere 35 hands is relevant.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can't seriously want to ignore stats with 35 hands this out of whack?

Checking the flop is bad. You guys don't play against enough tards. After seeing 10 people saying that checking the flop is a good idea after seeing how the hand played out, I decided this forum is just like I suspected it would be with everyone following the first advice that looks like it might be right with very few people actually thinking for themselves and even fewer of those actually being smart enough to say something meaningful.

I can't even get around to discussing the rest of this hand seeing as how way too many of you don't understand how bad a flop check is here against this villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

this post is awesome. this part completely describes this forum and why i hate it: "I decided this forum is just like I suspected it would be with everyone following the first advice that looks like it might be right with very few people actually thinking for themselves and even fewer of those actually being smart enough to say something meaningful."

bravo really and i am being sincere here.

but, met, then you fall into the same trap and dont give any reasoning for the correct play. WTF

[/ QUOTE ]

fwiw, meteron is a pretty big tool, but he's right.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't know if this is correct, but assuming these stats behave as a binomial distribution, we can figure out the margin of error. this is what i got

assume 36 hands, he played 18 (50%) and raised 11 (30.6%)

i'm getting

1 standard deviation:
- vpip: 42 to 58
- pfr: 23 to 38

2 SD's
- vpip: 33 to 67
- pfr: 15 to 46

so clearly i can't just throw away the sample

[/ QUOTE ]

josh

i never believe id ever say this

but you are too mathematical.

villain is a huge fish, i dont think you need to do a std deviation analysis or anything.

[dtan05]

I disagree with bobo, a friend i talked to on IRC said he had me as 44/33 over a 50 hand sample. I am more 22/15, but i switch gears a TON. This guy could easily be a good lag, a tag running hot, or a fish. just fwiw, i fold turn.

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't know if this is correct, but assuming these stats behave as a binomial distribution, we can figure out the margin of error. this is what i got

assume 36 hands, he played 18 (50%) and raised 11 (30.6%)

i'm getting

1 standard deviation:
- vpip: 42 to 58
- pfr: 23 to 38

2 SD's
- vpip: 33 to 67
- pfr: 15 to 46

so clearly i can't just throw away the sample

[/ QUOTE ]

josh

i never believe id ever say this

but you are too mathematical.

villain is a huge fish, i dont think you need to do a std deviation analysis or anything.

[/ QUOTE ]



well i got half of msnl telling me that 50/30 over 35 hands is meaningless. math (if it was right) can prove otherwise, while you simply saying they're wrong can't. it's clearly somewhere in between what you're saying, and what jim et al are saying

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with bobo, a friend i talked to on IRC said he had me as 44/33 over a 50 hand sample. I am more 22/15, but i switch gears a TON. This guy could easily be a good lag, a tag running hot, or a fish. just fwiw, i fold turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


i think it's fold flop or push turn. he's oop so he's rarely going to check the turn with whatever he has

[Josh.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't know if this is correct, but assuming these stats behave as a binomial distribution

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not, because the stats don't. You'd need some data to find what an actual distribution is. I did something similar here. Assuming a normal distribution will lead you to a very misleading range of stats (a 42 VPIP is much more likely than a 58 VPIP). That said, I agree that it would be wrong to completely ignore the stats we have, even a mere 35 hands is relevant.

[/ QUOTE ]


thanks for the link. good stuff

[markuisis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think checking this flop is a pretty good idea for a few reasons:

1) stacks. Its often tough to get stacks in good here when we're 150x deep.
2) QJ on board. Two very real dangers for us in terms of sets, but also we can pretty much guarantee to get as much or more value from one pair hands like AQ/KQ/AJ on later streets by checking behind the flop
3) we aren't too concerned about giving free cards here, really. some cards suck, but its not like we have to stack off if they come or anything.


As played, probably get it in just because of how big the pot is and how crazy this guy seems from the limited sample of hands on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed although sample size is sketchy and a bigger raise pre-flop was necessary, u were oop and deep, plus it limits his starting hands a lot more and makes decisions that much easier, as it is, he was getting good implied odds for sets and SCs since he also had position

[Parlay Slow]

as far as 50/35 over 35 hands, bayes theorem would tell you it's certainly very significant

for example, if someone you have never seen before in your life sits down in your 3/6 NL game, buys in for $600 and 3 bets your button open on his very first hand, can we comment on whether it's more likely he's an aggressive light-reraiser or that he has a super premium holding?