Boat vs nit - fold? - Page 6

HeheOkok · #51 08-20-2007, 04:41 PM

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You apparently do care, as you've responded twice within a few minutes of each of my posts. Note that I'm not saying it's impossible to fold in this spots, we've all done it at times (or should have done it). I'm asking a simple question for those people who want to simply roll over and die in the face of aggression because the turn happened to have paint on it. When you call pre with 64dd, it should be evident that you will have the nuts by the river very, veyr infrequently. You will flop bigger than 446 next to never. that being the case, when the flop does come 446, what are you looking for, your opponent to c/f? The turn/river will be a card that could two out you pretty frequently, plan on folding all of these? Would it be fair to say that a line that got your stack in the middle when you flop this house was a good one? I'm sorry but I'm not in shock and awe over people reading that he ran into QQ and then claiming that it's an easy fold, he "has" to have QQ.

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Let me guess... you're a 2/4-player. If you don't understand the reasoning TWP is using, then you don't belong in the highstakes forum. Most of us moved beyond simply looking at our own cards when we started playing 5/10 and above.

I'm obviously not saying this is an easy fold. On the contrary, it would be a sick fold. However, I think his range is something like 44/66/QQ/AQh and maybe a sick bluff like 2% of the time. We beat 44, 66 is unlikely and AQh is pretty unlikely too. QQ is the most probable hand imo. It's a close call without a doubt.

TheWorstPlayer · #52 08-20-2007, 04:49 PM

Once OP writes "I don't think he would EVER play a flushdraw like this. I DO think he thinks I have a flushdraw." it's the easiest fold in the world. Do we agree with that read? I don't know. But he was the one at the table...

HeheOkok · #53 08-20-2007, 05:01 PM

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Once OP writes "I don't think he would EVER play a flushdraw like this. I DO think he thinks I have a flushdraw." it's the easiest fold in the world. Do we agree with that read? I don't know. But he was the one at the table...

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Well, I shouldn't have said that I think he thinks I have a flushdraw. My point was that he should believe that a flushdraw is a decent percentage of my range and that he definitely wouldn't try and bluff when the flush hits.

And I don't think he could have a flush draw unless it's AQh.

TheWorstPlayer · #54 08-20-2007, 05:04 PM

ok, right - so a much more standard read which makes the hand much closer. fwiw, i'd fold. overbet push from a guy like this is always the nuts. if he didnt have the nuts, he'd have played his hand in a way which would give him a better chance at not getting him whole stack in. like bet/folding the turn. or check/calling the river.

FireStorm · #55 08-20-2007, 05:18 PM

I might change my opinion if the Villain can NEVER have a flush here. However, this to me is pretty unlikely.

As to what I play, I don't play online at all. I have played these limits live, although not what I would call extensively.

As to HeHeOK, I have no idea what this ~~~> "We beat 44, 66 is unlikely and AQh is pretty unlikely too" means. The flop is 446, he doesn't have 44. Even if you thought the flop was 664, your statement still wouldn't make sense, as 66 would then not be a possibility. What were you trying to say?

TheWorstPlayer · #56 08-20-2007, 05:20 PM

he was trying to say 66/QQ/AQhh, obviously. And I think it's unlikely he would play AQhh like this on the flop.

aislephive · #57 08-20-2007, 07:47 PM

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Once OP writes "I don't think he would EVER play a flushdraw like this. I DO think he thinks I have a flushdraw." it's the easiest fold in the world. Do we agree with that read? I don't know. But he was the one at the table...

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Well, I shouldn't have said that I think he thinks I have a flushdraw. My point was that he should believe that a flushdraw is a decent percentage of my range and that he definitely wouldn't try and bluff when the flush hits.

And I don't think he could have a flush draw unless it's AQh.

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I think him having something like AK hearts or really any NFD is very possible.

I mean, the more I think about this, the less I think a fold is horrible. I just never fold here and don't really think it matters much in the long run if we're able to get away from these sick coolers.

Raised2Win · #58 08-20-2007, 08:38 PM

I think his range is wide enough to make this call.

Your hand doesn't look like a fullhouse to him so as much as maybe 4X, so he might shove any flush on the river as value, its a bad bet but he didnt want to bet the pot and leave 1k behind or he thinks it looks more like a bluff.

If he had QQ and check called the turn shouldn't he check the river if he was really good. He is pretty much representing to have a big pair the whole hand so he should try to get 3rd barrel from u with that river and valuebets from every hand that beat AA, right? It looks like he chased and hit.

wdead · #59 08-20-2007, 09:49 PM

Look like villain has Qxhh, QQ, 66, some other weird flush, or air. If you think about that range and your equity vs it (considering how unlikely 66 is), I think this is a call.

FabledHero · #60 08-20-2007, 11:50 PM

If we assume villain has QQ, 66 or Ajh, AKh, this is a fold. Saying he could have air is ridiculous, i'm not a nit and i'm certainly not shoving 3100 into 2400 pot when a flush hits with air, it's just not a profitable play imo. But basically assuming those are his range here, you need 37% equity to call, whereas we only have 33% against that range and we can't even be certain he's shoving the Nut flush here. Against any other player than a Nit who doesn't make many bluffs I think we call here, but this is the one type of player where folding is optimal.