double gutter deep vs. Bbuddy 25/50

[VENGEANCE]

I've thought about this hand for a day now, and I posted yesterday saying fold, but now I think shove. This is not a drawy board. Of your range here, you are made way more than you have a draw(J8, T8, JT), assuming you don't have air. He doesn't think you ever have air here because he led and has committed half his stack, so he knows you think he will call. He has to be made in order to call here, and he probably is a large portion of the time. However, he has to give you credit for a made hand and if he doesn't have a strong made hand he may lay down because the board is so dry. Intuitively, when people bet out, it seems they never lay down here, but with the board that dry, a lead out with a very weak hand is a good play. He could in fact be doing this with a weak made hand or oesd as well, in which he can't call with the oesd and has to make a very unintuitive call with a weak made hand. It's slim, but I think he does fold often enough because the board is so dry. If any flush draws were out there it would be different, and you could expect a call nearly 100% percent of the time because your drawing range is then so much bigger.

Also, what is your line with AJ, AK, and better here(just out of curiosity, and I don't know if this should be a new thread, but it makes a difference in this one)

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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if you peel, looks like AA/AK and I think you get paid if you hit on the river. I'd peel it off probably. you might even have the best hand.

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having the best hand now is a horrendous argument for peeling TWP because if buddy has worse he pushes river every time you plan on folding and never any other time

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[Isura]

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fwiw I think metagame is close to irrelevant here, BBuddy doesn't even play very often anymore

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metagame still applies to OPs own game, and as etizzle pointed out especially wrt the fish.

[TheWorstPlayer]

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fwiw I think metagame is close to irrelevant here, BBuddy doesn't even play very often anymore

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metagame still applies to OPs own game, and as etizzle pointed out especially wrt the fish.

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fish dont pay attention to metagame. that's one reason why they're fish. and strass, point taken. but that was only a small reason why i'd call. now, if fwf is right, then obv it's a very bad call. i havent played BB much, but i was basing my comment on my limited experience against him, where he was going pretty insane...

[xxThe_Lebowskixx]

fold

[startrak]

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BLD, your math works out ( (x*6966)-(1-x)(0.182x22091) = 0 )

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Is this number EV?

[ike]

I'm pretty sure I shove here. Its hard for you to have strong draw on this board, so on the rare occasion that you do, throwing it into your push range should work out well. Also, I think bbuddy has nothing here pretty often.

[etizzle]

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fwiw I think metagame is close to irrelevant here, BBuddy doesn't even play very often anymore

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metagame still applies to OPs own game, and as etizzle pointed out especially wrt the fish.

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fish dont pay attention to metagame. that's one reason why they're fish. and strass, point taken. but that was only a small reason why i'd call. now, if fwf is right, then obv it's a very bad call. i havent played BB much, but i was basing my comment on my limited experience against him, where he was going pretty insane...

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maybe fish dont pay attention to "metagame" but theres a reason why they pay off BLD 8x more than they pay off other regs. And they ARE watching this hand.

[king_of_drafts]

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I'm pretty sure I shove here. Its hard for you to have strong draw on this board, so on the rare occasion that you do, throwing it into your push range should work out well. Also, I think bbuddy has nothing here pretty often.

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Is there a chance tilted bbuddy will call a shove with like 98 here, "knowing" he's behind? From what I have heard, he seems like one of the tiltiest high stakesers in the history of online poker. Although I guess vs. his really crappy pair+gutterball hands I have additional outs with the jacks.

[king_of_drafts]

etiz,

Good point. Thinkards and Sweetluvin love to point out when somebody is "getting out of line" by raising preflop more than twice in a row.