please post longterm ptbb at given stakes

[Fishstick]

I was at 12 ptbb/100 at the 65k hand mark at 2/4. Since then ive had two downswings and im now at 8ptbb/100 at 2/4 over about 90k hands (which is all the hands ive ever played at 2/4 nl)

Im winning about 300$/hour.

[DLizzle]

i don't have 100k hands at any one limit, especially if you consider 3/6 at x site to be different than 3/6 at y site, but I have 300k ish hands in my db. I play poker and my accounts increase. This thread sucks

[EgoSlasher]

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can everyone stop posting sample sizes of under 150K hands? k thx

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sry we don't all run at 2ptbb/100 but play a gagillion hands per day

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then the accuracy of your results are almost worthless

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o rly?

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Yup, winrate takes a really long time to converge properly. You can have a high theoretical winrate and still break even for close to 30k hands, which is why you need really large samples.

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plz come up with an exact number where they converge with reasoning, otherwise i will just continue to think you have no statistical background at all. why is 150k the magic number? how do you take in account the level that a player is playing at? why can't players be playing like [censored] for 30k hands?

yadadada

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You can't ever account for things like tilt,depression etc. Our win rates change daily, they change at every table and probably every hour. I had an excel sheet a long time ago that showed potential variance for a static(theoretical) win rate and took a look at different samples based on the SD from my PT stats. It's incredible the different results you can get every time you run the data.


I never stated 150k, I said "large samples". 150k qualifies to most as a decent sized sample as over that size sample your variance is considerably lower than smaller ones. Honestly, it should probably closer to 250k but I'm not motivated enough to run all the math again and re-create the spreadsheet.

Essentially your results over different sample size shows the range your win rate falls into, and the larger the sample the smaller the range, and the lower the variance you will experience in results.

[EgoSlasher]

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anyone saying "post more than 150k", why would anyone with a good winrate have 150k hands?

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People spend money on bills/cars/houses and feel comfortable beating a certain limit and may not be motivated to move up.

[PBJaxx]

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I'm surprised; some of the winrates seem pretty high. But I guess that is good because it means poker it still profitable for us.

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Anyone with a higher than average winrate for a winning poker player on 2p2 has posted here. Self-selection bias

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I am sure this has a huge affect on these types of threads.

[wpr101]

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I'm surprised; some of the winrates seem pretty high. But I guess that is good because it means most people are lying, exaggerating, or filtering.

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fyp

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Yea it's true. I actually you remember saying how your first 100k db was awesome and then the next one was break even. Something similar happened to me where I probably was winning like ave. 5 ptbb for 130k hands. Then for the next 80k I was down money.

Sample sizes need to be ridic to actually reveal a long term winrate. By this I mean like 300k hands at one limit. But hardly anybody has this because they move up if they are winning at the stake.

[Boquense]

3.4 bb/100 at 2/4 298k hands
2.67 bb/100 at 3/6 91k hands
6.3 bb/100 at 5/10 33k hands

Suck :<

[RikkiDee]

Threads like this need at least a poll because it is unlikely someone with a winrate of less then 3ptbb/100 will chime in voluntarily.

Either way they are sort of pointless since no matter what any data collected will be highly weighted towards winning players.

[wpr101]

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3.4 bb/100 at 2/4 298k hands
2.67 bb/100 at 3/6 91k hands
6.3 bb/100 at 5/10 33k hands

Suck :<

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This is bb and not ptbb? If it's ptbb it's pretty good I think.

[wpr101]

This is my last 93k hands. I was winning much better before this. How do you guys get such consistent graphs?