Official "it's not too early to start talking about Fantasy Football"

[Assani Fisher]

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WR

1. Smith
2. Holt
3. C Johnson
4. Harrison
5. Fitzgerald
6. R Williams
7. J Walker
8. R Wayne
9. Boldin
10. Owens



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Marvin will not do as much this year...his stats are falling steadily, (from a very high level of course) but Wayne is now the guy in Indy.... Marvin is just out of the top 10 WRs. (good 2nd WR to have on your roster.)

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I value consistency and high downside among my first few picks. I take more risks later on.

Marvin Harrison has been a top 5 WR in 7 out of the past 8 years, and in 4 of those he was the #1 overall WR. And he doesn't get injured much either- only missed 2 games in those 8 years. And you don't even have him in your top 10? BTW the one year he did miss the top 5 in those 8 years, he still was top 10(#9).

While I understand your optimism for Wayne, I think that Harrison is still the first guy that Manning looks for when they're near the end zone.

Also I'm not sure I understand your "falling steadily" comment:

2003: 94 catches, 1272 yards, 10 TDs
2004: 86 catches, 1113 yards, 15 TDs
2005: 82 catches, 1146 yards, 12 TDs
2006: 95 catches, 1366 yards, 12 TDs

[SL__72]

Yeah idk about falling steadily. Besides the fact that his conventional stats were very good last year, he had the second highest DPAR of anyone in the NFL last year, less then two points behind Wayne and 10 points ahead of 3rd place (44 to 34).

He did make some bad plays in the playoffs though.

[Assani Fisher]

In my PPR Marvin Harrison was the #1 overall WR last year with 305 points. The next closest(Chad Johnson) had 285. Third(Reggie Wayne) had 275.

This makes those comments about him even more confusing to me.

[Clarkmeister]

Some odds at a casino:

Most Rushing Yards:
Tomlinson 3-1
Johnson 7-2
Gore 6-1
SJax 7-1
Shauna 7-1
Rudi 25-1
Willie 12-1
Addai 10-1
Portis 16-1
McGahee 14-1
Henry 10-1

Most Passing Yards
Manning 5/2
Brees 6-1
Bulger 14-1
Kitna 9-1
Palmer 8-1
Favre 16-1
Brady 3-1
McNabb 8-1
Leinhart 15-1
Romo 15-1

Most Receiving Yards
CJ 6-1
Marvin 7-1
Roy Williams 9-1
Reggie Wayne 12-1
TO 12-1
Steve Smith 4-1
Fitz 14-1
Boldin 14-1
Holt 8-1
Andre Johnson 16-1
Moss 8-1
Colston 14-1
Stalworth 20-1
Plaxico 20-1

Thoughts on value?

[RyanUSF]

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Don't underestimate the loss of Norv Turner's play calling hurting Smith and Gore.

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Don't overestimate it either. Jim Hostler, our new offensive coordinator, was promoted in house after serving as the QBs coach for the past two seasons. Norv Turner is a great offensive mind there's no doubt about that, but it's not like some new guy is coming in and changing things around like Turner did last year after McCarthy left for GB. Smith still has Dilfer to lean on, who was instrumental in his development last year as well.

Alex Smith will have more weapons this year with the additions of Darrell Jackson and Ashlie Lelie, along with a healthy, more humble, more experienced Vernon Davis. If Smith takes another step forward this year, which he is poised to do, teams will have to respect the 49ers passing game much more than they did last year, which of course will open things up for Gore considerably. Don't forget that Frank, when healthy, was one of the best running backs in college football and easily would've been chosen in the top 10 when he came out if not for two knee surgeries. I think he deserves to be in the top 10 in anyone's draft this year, even though Michael Robinson will get some goal line carries.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

Clark,

You know more about Sports Betting than I do, but my assumption about these bets is that the house edge is aways huge. Kind of like the pre-season odds for any 1 team to win the Super Bowl - those are always in the house's advantage imo.

[Clarkmeister]

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Clark,

You know more about Sports Betting than I do, but my assumption about these bets is that the house edge is aways huge. Kind of like the pre-season odds for any 1 team to win the Super Bowl - those are always in the house's advantage imo.

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Depends. In aggregate the house edge is huge. That doesn't mean there won't be some stray value on individual players.

For example, I think that Carson Palmer at 8-1 is a pretty good price.

[Magra]

Am I the only person who sees big value for Rudi and Willie? Maybe it's my obsession over them as football players without an attitude, but Rudi at 25-1? Willie at 12-1?

I see good value at Bulger 14-1. When you got Holt/Bruce/SJax as your WR/WR/RB tandem, you will throw big yards.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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Clark,

You know more about Sports Betting than I do, but my assumption about these bets is that the house edge is aways huge. Kind of like the pre-season odds for any 1 team to win the Super Bowl - those are always in the house's advantage imo.

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Depends. In aggregate the house edge is huge. That doesn't mean there won't be some stray value on individual players.

For example, I think that Carson Palmer at 8-1 is a pretty good price.

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that makes sense. but analytically, I have no idea how I could come up with the right price for that kind of bet. ie if 7-1 is bad and 9-1 and is a no brainer.

before that playoffs start, it's a fairly simple calculation to figure out what 1 teams odds are for winning the SB. this...I have no idea.

I'd be really interested in how they come up with these numbers.

[4 High]

Any chance for Cadillac to not suck this year?