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#51
06-11-2007, 06:45 PM
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I love the first 2 examples, but disagree with the 3rd. Either way, good post. Basic idea is that if you think there is reasonable chance your ahead with a PSB left, shove. Guys, this is not a bluff. It is a hazy notion of valuebetting combined with metagame implications. [/ QUOTE ] Hand 1 is definitely more of a bluff than a value bet against a solid player, I don't see how that's even debatable. You really think some tag is calling this river with A8? I can see this being a good value shove against a calling station, but this is absolutely horrible against a lot of players. [/ QUOTE ] UTG never has a big ace given preflop, very rarely has AJ from the flop action. So all you lose to is random Js, which probably fold the turn. In other words, UTG has a weak ace a freaking ton, and you are ahead here like 99% of the time. Villain doesn't need to get stubborn with an Ace very often to make this +EV. I don't understand why you wouldn't want to put him to that decision. 
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#52
06-11-2007, 06:48 PM
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] op = straight thug seriously... i think these river plays are around 0 ev with notable metagame value. [/ QUOTE ] There is no way in hell they are zero EV, and all are +EV. There's a reason people on this board often look at hands like this where Hero has air and tell people "Lol, don't triple barrel here, he'll look you up with TP a ton". [/ QUOTE ] Huh? There are plenty of hands where you put somebody on just top pair and make a massively +EV 3 barrell. When people say "he won't fold top pair here" they're almost always reffering to a donk and not a tag. [/ QUOTE ] We've had this discussion before. How many times have we both read a HH where some Hero got called on his triple-barrel by a weak TP and said (of a random villain) "I'd fold the turn, but given that he didn't, I'd snap-call the river."?
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#53
06-11-2007, 06:51 PM
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
[ QUOTE ]
everyone tries to pretend that metagame is of little value at SSNL - but that's not true. we all do things that are meta-dependent. [/ QUOTE ]how many times do you expect to get to the river with top pair good kicker in the 30 or 40 hands most random players will play in the half hour that they donate after work? just food for thought. if you post anything you want me to see send a pm, i don't browse much anymore.
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#54
06-11-2007, 06:59 PM
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
Point three is being overlooked in most of this discussion. [ QUOTE ]
3) i figure to be good almost always (in position "most of the time" suffices) [/ QUOTE ] Where things get interesting is the difference between the hand range villain has to get to the river and the hand range villain has that will call the shove on the river. The thing is, there is often less difference between the two than we expect once we get to the river. Read hands well. Abuse the hell out of people when you have that read.
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#55
06-11-2007, 07:05 PM
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I love the first 2 examples, but disagree with the 3rd. Either way, good post. Basic idea is that if you think there is reasonable chance your ahead with a PSB left, shove. Guys, this is not a bluff. It is a hazy notion of valuebetting combined with metagame implications. [/ QUOTE ] Hand 1 is definitely more of a bluff than a value bet against a solid player, I don't see how that's even debatable. You really think some tag is calling this river with A8? I can see this being a good value shove against a calling station, but this is absolutely horrible against a lot of players. [/ QUOTE ] UTG never has a big ace given preflop, very rarely has AJ from the flop action. So all you lose to is random Js, which probably fold the turn. In other words, UTG has a weak ace a freaking ton, and you are ahead here like 99% of the time. Villain doesn't need to get stubborn with an Ace very often to make this +EV. I don't understand why you wouldn't want to put him to that decision. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't pay attention to preflop. I suppose it's not as bad now since I can see him having a weak ace a decent amount. If action had went something like we open UTG, villain calls in blinds then I'd stand by what I said. Also, we got no reads in the OP, and that's the biggest reason why I don't like it. This river shove can be either very good or very bad depending on villain. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] op = straight thug seriously... i think these river plays are around 0 ev with notable metagame value. [/ QUOTE ] There is no way in hell they are zero EV, and all are +EV. There's a reason people on this board often look at hands like this where Hero has air and tell people "Lol, don't triple barrel here, he'll look you up with TP a ton". [/ QUOTE ] Huh? There are plenty of hands where you put somebody on just top pair and make a massively +EV 3 barrell. When people say "he won't fold top pair here" they're almost always reffering to a donk and not a tag. [/ QUOTE ] We've had this discussion before. How many times have we both read a HH where some Hero got called on his triple-barrel by a weak TP and said (of a random villain) "I'd fold the turn, but given that he didn't, I'd snap-call the river."? [/ QUOTE ] I don't like calling down in villain's spot in hand one at all, since there are a lot of hands we can be value shoving in that spot, and nothing about the way the hand went down makes me think hero is bluffing. There are some circumstances where I'll call somebody down super lightly, and if villain was Caterp I might get owned on occasion, but I have a pretty good feel of what boards hero will be double/triple barrelling as well as how wide his value shoving range is so I'll try and adjust accordingly.
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#56
06-11-2007, 07:19 PM
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] this was a pure value shove, fwiw [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. [/ QUOTE ] So do I, I really cant see how that is pure value. Its closer to a bluff than value IMO.
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#57
06-11-2007, 07:31 PM
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I love the first 2 examples, but disagree with the 3rd. Either way, good post. Basic idea is that if you think there is reasonable chance your ahead with a PSB left, shove. Guys, this is not a bluff. It is a hazy notion of valuebetting combined with metagame implications. [/ QUOTE ] Hand 1 is definitely more of a bluff than a value bet against a solid player, I don't see how that's even debatable. You really think some tag is calling this river with A8? I can see this being a good value shove against a calling station, but this is absolutely horrible against a lot of players. [/ QUOTE ] UTG never has a big ace given preflop, very rarely has AJ from the flop action. So all you lose to is random Js, which probably fold the turn. In other words, UTG has a weak ace a freaking ton, and you are ahead here like 99% of the time. Villain doesn't need to get stubborn with an Ace very often to make this +EV. I don't understand why you wouldn't want to put him to that decision. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't pay attention to preflop. I suppose it's not as bad now since I can see him having a weak ace a decent amount. If action had went something like we open UTG, villain calls in blinds then I'd stand by what I said. Also, we got no reads in the OP, and that's the biggest reason why I don't like it. This river shove can be either very good or very bad depending on villain. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] op = straight thug seriously... i think these river plays are around 0 ev with notable metagame value. [/ QUOTE ] There is no way in hell they are zero EV, and all are +EV. There's a reason people on this board often look at hands like this where Hero has air and tell people "Lol, don't triple barrel here, he'll look you up with TP a ton". [/ QUOTE ] Huh? There are plenty of hands where you put somebody on just top pair and make a massively +EV 3 barrell. When people say "he won't fold top pair here" they're almost always reffering to a donk and not a tag. [/ QUOTE ] We've had this discussion before. How many times have we both read a HH where some Hero got called on his triple-barrel by a weak TP and said (of a random villain) "I'd fold the turn, but given that he didn't, I'd snap-call the river."? [/ QUOTE ] I don't like calling down in villain's spot in hand one at all, since there are a lot of hands we can be value shoving in that spot, and nothing about the way the hand went down makes me think hero is bluffing. There are some circumstances where I'll call somebody down super lightly, and if villain was Caterp I might get owned on occasion, but I have a pretty good feel of what boards hero will be double/triple barrelling as well as how wide his value shoving range is so I'll try and adjust accordingly. [/ QUOTE ] so i agree with Bilbo that the bet on the river is for VALUE. but I disagree with the idea that you can usually get 3-streets of value out of ATo. I thinkl it's much high EV to check the flop or even check the turn, although I prefer the former.
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#58
06-18-2007, 06:21 AM
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I love the first 2 examples, but disagree with the 3rd. Either way, good post. Basic idea is that if you think there is reasonable chance your ahead with a PSB left, shove. Guys, this is not a bluff. It is a hazy notion of valuebetting combined with metagame implications. [/ QUOTE ] Hand 1 is definitely more of a bluff than a value bet against a solid player, I don't see how that's even debatable. You really think some tag is calling this river with A8? I can see this being a good value shove against a calling station, but this is absolutely horrible against a lot of players. [/ QUOTE ] It can't be a bluff because no worst hand is going to fold IMO. So it's a terrible bluff. It not as bad of a valuebet because it is more likely that they call with worse than they fold better. That is the point of the concept. The action indicates that we are ahead, but its a very marginal or 0EV valuebet spot. [/ QUOTE ] I really don't think we're ahead of almost any tags calling range. If you have a read and expect to be called down by A9 then sure, it's ok. But against a solid player with no history do you really expect him to call with worse or fold better? I really don't. If he calls with AT+ and folds A2-A9, shoving is a losing proposition. Not that it's true that he will always call better/fold worse, but I would expect to be behind when called the vast majority of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Given the action we are ahead of the tag here a ton and sometimes people decide to make river calls because they put you on nuts or air one thing that terp didn't mention, or i don't think he did, or not directly anyways, is that it's a good general rule to not give opponents credit in ssnl when they check the river OOP and you should be value shoving in these spots a ton with a lot of medium strength hands
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#59
06-20-2007, 03:52 PM
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Re: theory: \"the showdown tax\"
Good hand for the showdown tax?
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $27.30 BB: $56.95 UTG: $43.55 MP: $86.50 CO: $141.30 Hero (BTN): $49.25 Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players) UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.25</font>, 2 folds, MP calls $1.75 Flop: ($5.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, MP calls $3.00 Turn: ($11.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7.00</font>, MP calls $7.00 River: ($25.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $24.00</font>, MP folds Uncalled bet of $24.00 returned to Hero Pot Size: $25.25 ($1.25 Rake) (pot was 24 after rake)
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