What's my hand look like to a 5/10 regular?

[fsuplayer]

mimi-

could you walk us through your thinking during that hand you posted? street by street please, thx!

[xxThe_Lebowskixx]

***** Hand History for Game 2194515761 *****
$2000 NL Hold'em - Sunday, June 12, 04:14:40 EDT 2005
Table Table 51968 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: Mitera ( $310 )
Seat 3: z079236 ( $2368 )
Seat 5: SevenLine ( $2269 )
Seat 6: hundredyears ( $4399 )
Seat 7: NoNgIcE ( $3480.5 )
Seat 8: str8low ( $1950 )
Seat 9: MSPOKERFLA ( $963.5 )
Seat 10: pipestizzle ( $3554 )
Seat 4: Neurotoxin ( $1960 )
Seat 1: ODESSA78 ( $1300.9 )
SevenLine posts small blind [$10].
hundredyears posts big blind [$20].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to NoNgIcE [ Jc Ac ]
>You have options at Table 51999 Table!.
NoNgIcE raises [$60].
str8low folds.
MSPOKERFLA folds.
pipestizzle folds.
ODESSA78 folds.
>You have options at Table 51999 Table!.
Mitera folds.
z079236 folds.
Neurotoxin folds.
SevenLine folds.
hundredyears calls [$40].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 9c, Kc ]
hundredyears checks.
NoNgIcE bets [$60].
hundredyears calls [$60].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
hundredyears checks.
NoNgIcE bets [$60].
>You have options at Table 51962 Table!.
hundredyears raises [$190].
>You have options at Table 51962 Table!.
NoNgIcE calls [$130].
** Dealing River ** [ Jh ]
>You have options at Table 51962 Table!.
>You have options at Table 51962 Table!.
>You have options at Table 52040 Table!.
hundredyears bets [$400].
>You have options at Table 51962 Table!.
NoNgIcE is all-In.
>You have options at Table 52040 Table!.
hundredyears calls [$2770.5].
>You have options at Table 52040 Table!.
hundredyears shows [ Qd, Js ] a straight, nine to king.
NoNgIcE shows [ Jc, Ac ] a flush, ace high.
>You have options at Table 51962 Table!.
NoNgIcE wins $6968 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.

DUCY?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Yo, I was on table 51962 and we were really needing your attention. Maybe don't play so many tables if you can't handle it.

[ahnuld]

[ QUOTE ]
irock, looks like a boat or air to me. i dont give ppl any credit for being able to fold overpairs here at 5-10.

[/ QUOTE ]

this and maybe a turned diamond draw along with something on the flop.

[iRock]

ahnuld,

the turned flush draw didn't catch my attention till 3 days later in the hand. thanks for pointing it out i guess thats not a good sign for me haha.

blueman-
this isnt exactly a standard hand for me. i was just trying something out of the ordinary with a person i know plays a lot there. A9 is a bad call here preflop.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call w KK a fair amount there because unknowns will think "hey thats a good bluff card, it looks like straight got there" more than 20% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think this is a bluff 20% of the time trying to rep Q10, you are out of your [censored] mind. I think the majority of people will call here, but I think it’s a fundamentally poor call. If everyone is doing it tho, then my bluff becomes fundamentally poor as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, if you really want to analyze it, then here:

Hands he is behind to with KK
QTs 4 combos;
JJ/99/66 9 combos; discount cause sometimes bets turn
AA 6 combos; discount cause often 3bets preflop
A6/76/65s 12 combos; discount sometimes bets turn
75s 4 combos; discount sometimes fold preflop
(forgot 88 but idea is same)
Total 31 combos, with discount maybe 15 combos

So getting 3.66 to 1 here means he needs to be bluffing about 4 combos or more to make calling w KK correct.

So some hands that are behind to KK:
QQ 6 combos; usually calls river, but sometimes plays it this way
AJ 16 combos; usually calls river, but occasionally plays it this way
KJs/QJs 8 combos; usually calls river, but sometimes plays it this way
JTs/J9s/T9/98s 10 combos; sometimes calls, sometimes folds river, occasionally bluffs
87s/KQ 20 combos; often folds sometimes bluffs
Other random [censored] like TT,77, 55 18 combos; very occasionally plays like this

That’s a total of 78 combos --- needing only 4, remember

So with the hand range that is behind, will he think you can be jamming more than 1 in 19 times? if you don't like my numbers or lines above, pick your own and correct me

-g

[iRock]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call w KK a fair amount there because unknowns will think "hey thats a good bluff card, it looks like straight got there" more than 20% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think this is a bluff 20% of the time trying to rep Q10, you are out of your [censored] mind. I think the majority of people will call here, but I think it’s a fundamentally poor call. If everyone is doing it tho, then my bluff becomes fundamentally poor as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, if you really want to analyze it, then here:

Hands he is behind to with KK
QTs 4 combos;
JJ/99/66 9 combos; discount cause sometimes bets turn
AA 6 combos; discount cause often 3bets preflop
A6/76/65s 12 combos; discount sometimes bets turn
75s 4 combos; discount sometimes fold preflop
(forgot 88 but idea is same)
Total 31 combos, with discount maybe 15 combos

So getting 3.66 to 1 here means he needs to be bluffing about 4 combos or more to make calling w KK correct.

So some hands that are behind to KK:
QQ 6 combos; usually calls river, but sometimes plays it this way
AJ 16 combos; usually calls river, but occasionally plays it this way
KJs/QJs 8 combos; usually calls river, but sometimes plays it this way
JTs/J9s/T9/98s 10 combos; sometimes calls, sometimes folds river, occasionally bluffs
87s/KQ 20 combos; often folds sometimes bluffs
Other random [censored] like TT,77, 55 18 combos; very occasionally plays like this

That’s a total of 78 combos --- needing only 4, remember

So with the hand range that is behind, will he think you can be jamming more than 1 in 19 times? if you don't like my numbers or lines above, pick your own and correct me

-g

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not too well versed in calculation software as you obviously are. My point is that any hand i have that is beating KK i am probably raising the river, and there is no hand i would ever raise here for value that loses to KK. That means that my hand has to either have him beat or a bluff. It doesnt matter what those hand combos are too much as i would never play AJ or QQ or 75s (not sure why thats in there would be a very weird line) or really any of the hands you list except in the 1 out of like 500 times i decide to turn it into a bluff on the river with no equity. Do you really think i ever shove over the river with AJ given the hand? QQ is even a bad shove by the river.

My point is not that you can come up with all these hands that i could have that lose to KK, but instead with 99.9% of these hands that lose to KK, i would either fold or call river. Once i raise, he only beats a bluff, and with such little fold equity and the texture of the board, i am bluffing here far less than 20% of the time.

[Zeestein]

the problem is that everyone think that they play super tricky or something, and he's like "OMG i've disguised my overpair holding so well, he's can be shoving like AJ for value, I cawl!"

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call w KK a fair amount there because unknowns will think "hey thats a good bluff card, it looks like straight got there" more than 20% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think this is a bluff 20% of the time trying to rep Q10, you are out of your [censored] mind. I think the majority of people will call here, but I think it’s a fundamentally poor call. If everyone is doing it tho, then my bluff becomes fundamentally poor as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, if you really want to analyze it, then here:

Hands he is behind to with KK
QTs 4 combos;
JJ/99/66 9 combos; discount cause sometimes bets turn
AA 6 combos; discount cause often 3bets preflop
A6/76/65s 12 combos; discount sometimes bets turn
75s 4 combos; discount sometimes fold preflop
(forgot 88 but idea is same)
Total 31 combos, with discount maybe 15 combos

So getting 3.66 to 1 here means he needs to be bluffing about 4 combos or more to make calling w KK correct.

So some hands that are behind to KK:
QQ 6 combos; usually calls river, but sometimes plays it this way
AJ 16 combos; usually calls river, but occasionally plays it this way
KJs/QJs 8 combos; usually calls river, but sometimes plays it this way
JTs/J9s/T9/98s 10 combos; sometimes calls, sometimes folds river, occasionally bluffs
87s/KQ 20 combos; often folds sometimes bluffs
Other random [censored] like TT,77, 55 18 combos; very occasionally plays like this

That’s a total of 78 combos --- needing only 4, remember

So with the hand range that is behind, will he think you can be jamming more than 1 in 19 times? if you don't like my numbers or lines above, pick your own and correct me

-g

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not too well versed in calculation software as you obviously are. My point is that any hand i have that is beating KK i am probably raising the river, and there is no hand i would ever raise here for value that loses to KK. That means that my hand has to either have him beat or a bluff. It doesnt matter what those hand combos are too much as i would never play AJ or QQ or 75s (not sure why thats in there would be a very weird line) or really any of the hands you list except in the 1 out of like 500 times i decide to turn it into a bluff on the river with no equity. Do you really think i ever shove over the river with AJ given the hand? QQ is even a bad shove by the river.

My point is not that you can come up with all these hands that i could have that lose to KK, but instead with 99.9% of these hands that lose to KK, i would either fold or call river. Once i raise, he only beats a bluff, and with such little fold equity and the texture of the board, i am bluffing here far less than 20% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]


You are saying that Villains thought process should be “Is hero bluffing here >20% of the time? If yes, I call. If no I fold.”

But I think more accurate way of assessing it is to ask “What is the weighted distribution of value betting vs. bluffing hands that hero can have here” and combine that with “IF hero does have a bluffing hand, THEN how often will he bluff with it”?

The analysis in my last post shows that with those assumptions you only need to be bluffing ~6% of the time, WHEN YOU HAVE a bluffing hand for his call to be correct.

And to be more precise, its not your bluffing frequency that matters – it’s the typical player (if you are unknown to him) who presumably bluff there more than you do since you are presumably a good player and think bluffing is bad there.

Personally, I think the average player will bluff when having a bluffing range more than 6% of the time and its not close, but maybe you disagree.

-g

[Melchiades]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I think the average player will bluff when having a bluffing range more than 6% of the time and its not close, but maybe you disagree.

-g

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think the 6% number is very relevant, when you include hands like QQ and lots of J's in their bluffing range. The average player is hardly ever turning hands like these into a bluff on this river with these stack sizes.