***Official Stars Regs Thread*** - Page 6

milesdyson · #51 04-06-2007, 02:15 PM

CO is cardlogs. I don't know button. Did cardlogs bet the river to induce a bluff raise or what? I don't get it.

I just looked through cardlogs hands for March and April and he only lost more than 5 bb in one hand 3 times. 5.5, 5.5, and 7. This is over 1400 hands. So his ratio is 0.002.

Compare this to me losing over 5 bb in one hand 113 times over 27000 hands. My ratio is double his. I sucks.

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, CO caps, Button calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Button raises, CO calls.

Turn: (6.70 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Button checks.

River: (6.70 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO bets, Button raises, CO calls.

Final Pot: 10.70 BB

Results in white below: 
CO has Qh Ac (one pair, nines).
Button has Kc Kd (two pair, kings and nines).
Outcome: Button wins 10.70 BB.

Leader · #52 04-06-2007, 02:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Leader:
[ QUOTE ]
Filtered for 4-6 handed

21/16 - -.90
26/18 - -.03
30/20 - -.63
36/20 - +.04
40/20/>2AF - -.02
40/20/<2AF - -1.18

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks. 36/20 it is [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] - I assume that's small sample size, not many 36/20ers.

I think ~26/18 is where I'd like to be but struggling to find the extra spots to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll add 95% confidence intervals based on 20SD and the probability that the group is a winning group given the results.

21/16 - -.90 (-2.13, .33) 5.5%
26/18 - -.03 (-.72, .66) 46.5%
30/20 - -.63 (-1.39, .13) 5.5%
36/20 - +.04 (-.84, .92) 53.5%
40/20/>2AF - -.02 (-2.02, 1.99) 53%
40/20/<2AF - -1.18 (-2.07, -0.29) 0.5%

Heisenb3rg · #53 04-06-2007, 02:22 PM

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BTW I have him as 19/13 over 2.5k hands

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the only way this is profitable is if nobody PROPERLY EXPLOITS this.

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A big difference in wording. Knowing all the stats in the world are useless if you're not using them right.
The focus has been far too much on pre-flop stats and what 2+2 has decided are acceptable pre-flop stats.
OMGZ0RS HE'S 20/14 HE CAN'T BE THAT GOOD! (btw im not directing this at you danza, its a general comment)

Exploiting a slightly too tight player pre-flop is easy for anyone who knows basic shorthanded poker theory.
Exploiting a slightly too tight player post flop is equally as possible and much more profitable, but requies wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy more poker skill and awareness.

Also , never spewing post flop or making very bad decisions is pretty serious BB/100, considering how frequently everyone else spews/makes poor post flop decisions.

Seriously, when it comes to consistnacy and discipline cardlogs is unparalleld @ 5/10.
Sure, heads up I feel I have a significant post flop edge against him. But against the limit in general, I wouldn't be surprsied if his theoretical win rate was higher than mine.

jba · #54 04-06-2007, 02:25 PM

miles in that AQ hand I can definitely see how he got in that situation in the first place. i mean I don't like the bet but that's a pretty weird spot to begin with but I feel like I can actually see what he's thinking there and I don't think it's actually that terrible. obv button played that hand like a cocoa puff.

danzasmack · #55 04-06-2007, 02:26 PM

heisenb3rg,

well yah. I'm assuming if you know this you can exploit it and if you don't you can't.

"Never spewing post flop is pretty serious BB/100, considering how frequently everyone else spews/makes poor post flop decisions."

Now THAT is an interesting statement.

If everyone is spewing postflop then isn't me spewing considered less like spewing? And then couldn't you say but not spewing post flop I'm missing value? It's a weird line to walk.

Heisenb3rg · #56 04-06-2007, 03:04 PM

Sure you can think of it like that if you want.

Hypothetical world:

1)Everyone makes certain big mistakes (spewing) at the same frequency/situation.

A player who comes into this world that does not have property one, can play slightly worse overall (miss many small +EV situations). But by avoiding those big mistakes be a long term winner in the game.

Fundamental theorem of poker is about playing your cards better than your opponent would play your cards if they had them.

If everonye tilts the same, your not losing money if you tilt. But there's plenty of potential money to be gain/lost by avoiding tilt, or tilting even MORE frequently.

sethypooh21 · #57 04-06-2007, 03:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just looked through cardlogs hands for March and April and he only lost more than 5 bb in one hand 3 times. 5.5, 5.5, and 7. This is over 1400 hands. So his ratio is 0.002.

[/ QUOTE ]Is this necessarily a good thing? I had at least three hands yesterday where I capped the turn in a big pot with the nuts, but got rivered, and lost > 5 BB (there were also maybe a few where I just spewed, but that's another discussion) - my point is that the above may indicate that he is not giving enough action, unless his (cardlog's) image is so commanding that people rarely play back at him.

chezlaw · #58 04-06-2007, 03:31 PM

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21/16 is TIGGHHHTTTT. i first had stats like that in 6max when i came in from a much more loose passive site and a largely full ring background (no PT befoer that). Im now at like 26/19 if u keep finding +EV situations to play hands those numbers will rise chez, u ll find em eventually. to answer mcgahees qusetion i think there is little correlation in playing tighter causing less swings even though thats a bit counterintuitive. I think u pass up too many +EV opportunites (iso 3bets ect) to make up for it but making fewer high variance plays. my swings as a nit vs a lagtag havent been much different truthfully, but alot of that is as ur play closer to optimal ur winrate should rise causing less variance. And i actually think having the only hands u put many bets in with getting cracked causes MORE tilt than if ur playing more hands and winning and losing pots frequently and not as reliant on ur one big hand an hour holding up since ur picking up more pots (and probably bigger pots IMO) without showdown with the lagtag style.

[/ QUOTE ]
Find more spots eventually? not at the rate I'm going - I used to be 25/15 [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

and at the table good ~30/20ers just don't seem to play many hands that I don't.

So if they're not playing hands that I'm not and my numbers are too low then there's only one solution. I will raise from the BB more when its limped to me: vpip+, pfr+, no more hands.

chez

Heisenb3rg · #59 04-06-2007, 03:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Find more spots eventually? not at the rate I'm going - I used to be 25/15 [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

and at the table good ~30/20ers just don't seem to play many hands that I don't.

So if they're not playing hands that I'm not and my numbers are too low then there's only one solution. I will raise from the BB more when its limped to me: vpip+, pfr+, no more hands.

chez

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Difference between 30/20 and 25/15 isn't that noticeable because it often only a result of one or more of the following:

a) 3-betting button raises lighter in small blind
b) Open raising lighter on the button
c) calling lighter in the BB
d) 3-betting cut off raises lighter on the button

In my data base im 29.1/20.4 @ 5/10.
@ 3/6 I was 23.4/15.6.

All the changes in my preflop play were a result of a,b,c,d.
I've actually tightened up my play in certain areas.

sethypooh21 · #60 04-06-2007, 03:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Find more spots eventually? not at the rate I'm going - I used to be 25/15 [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

and at the table good ~30/20ers just don't seem to play many hands that I don't.

So if they're not playing hands that I'm not and my numbers are too low then there's only one solution. I will raise from the BB more when its limped to me: vpip+, pfr+, no more hands.

chez

[/ QUOTE ]

Difference between 30/20 and 25/15 isn't that noticeable because it often only a result of one or more of the following:

a) 3-betting button raises lighter in small blind
b) Open raising lighter on the button
c) calling lighter in the BB
d) 3-betting cut off raises lighter on the button

In my data base im 29.1/20.4 @ 5/10.
@ 3/6 I was 23.4/15.6.

All the changes in my preflop play were a result of a,b,c,d.
I've actually tightened up my play in certain areas.

[/ QUOTE ]Yeah, basically when I made all these changes, I instantly went from like 26/15 to 29/20, though I'm trying to scale back B a little.