Anyone taking Danny's action??

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and by the way I think there is a God. I can't prove it to you, and that's why discussions about God often become very heated. Thing is, you can't prove that there is no God. You might "think" you can, but you really can't.


[/ QUOTE ]

standard.

no atheists i know claim to have disproved the existence of god.

[/ QUOTE ]

When Christians and other theists get mad at agnostics and atheists throwing the Flying Spaghetti Monster in their face over and over again, they have only Daniel Negreanu to blame.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
If I play an average of 35 events a year over the next five years thats a total of 175 events. I'll always be choosing the higher limit buy in events when there is a choice. Those games will usually be games where my edge is also bigger than normal (stud hl omaha hl).

For 5-1 odds to be correct I'd have to win 1 out of 175 tournaments.

I don't think I've ever come close to playing 175 consecutive tournaments without a win... but it "could" happen I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

good thing you don't need to understand probability to be a good poker player [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

5 to 1 is equivalent to 1 in 6 so by that logic you'd have to win 1 in 35*6 = 210 tournaments for those odds to be correct. but that's incorrect, because as i understand it, you only get paid for the first bracelet you win, not all the bracelets you win this year.

what you're really interested in is your chances of winning at least one tournament out of 35, or the chances that you don't fail to win 35 tournaments in a row. if your chances of winning any tournament are 1 in 210, then the chances of winning at least 1 out of 35 would be:

1-(209/210)^35 = 1 - 0.8461448 = 0.1538 or 1 in 6.499 which is 5.499 to 1.

if you're winning 1 in 175 tournaments, the correct odds would be:

1-(174/175)^35 = 0.1817 or 1 in 5.502 which is 4.502 to 1.

so if you believe you win more than 1 in 175 tournaments, you have a good bet at 5 to 1.

of course that doesn't consider the fact that WSOP fields are huge (bad for you), the fact that you'll be playing a higher percentage of non NL tournaments (good for you, or so you claim), or the fact that results will tend to be streaky - ie. there is a positive correlation between the wsop events (bad for you).

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

For 5-1 odds to be correct I'd have to win 1 out of 175 tournaments.

I don't think I've ever come close to playing 175 consecutive tournaments without a win... but it "could" happen I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

also, never going more than 175 tournaments without a win is not even close to the same thing as winning 1 out of every 175, but obviously that works in your favour.