lol slowplays always work

[DJ Sensei]

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I read the thread in HSNL as well and hadnt really thought of this principle before. Normally I would always raise the turn here. If you know he has AA/QQ/TT 100% of the time and will always stack off on the river even if a K, J or club hit than calling the turn is the better play.
The real question is how accurately can you assess his range and his willingness to stack off on action-killing river cards.


On the turn your equity versus a range of {AA,QQ,TT} is 77,3%.
The board pairs on the river 10/44 = 22,7% of the time
A K or J comes on the river 13,6% of the time.
This means you will win $1300 (645 in the pot plus 655 in his stack) 63,7% of the time = $828,1
If he check-folds a K or J river you win $645 13,6% of the time = $87,7. Total EV = $915,8
EV of pushing the turn is 1300 * 0,773 - 655 * 0,227 = $856,2

Add AQ to his b/c range and shoving>folding. Him c/f-ing a K or J seems rather unlikely, he will probably call a smallish bet, so the equity difference will be even larger between shoving turn and calling turn/shoving the river.

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sweet, thanks, i was hoping somebody would run some numbers on it. i'm a little surprised that shoving turn is even correct when he's on the tight theoretical range, but there you go.