Never fold KK preflop, right?!?!? - Page 6

punter11235 · #51 03-09-2007, 11:29 PM

I am seriously folding it just in case anybody is wondering if I wasnt joking.

Josh. · #52 03-09-2007, 11:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 36.266% 34.40% 01.87% 780877512 42348168.00 { KK }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 27.447% 24.14% 03.31% 289868544 39705784.00 { KK }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 22.941% 18.55% 04.39% 164798064 38976024.00 { KK }

[/ QUOTE ]

If the other two are all in, the pot will be $1,149, and I will have to put in $551 to get to showdown. If I go all in too, the pot will be $1,700. In other words, I am risking $551 to win a $1,700 pot (actually $1,697 after the rake). So, I need equity of 32.47% to make this shove.

I have that much equity in your first range of hands. And, I think their range is at least that. However, there is another problem. If I shove, SB can now play perfectly and probably won't go in with anything less than QQ (and maybe nothing less than KK). Shouldn't that be a factor as well?

I'm starting to think that calling is just high variance with close to neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah if SB is any good he's going to have exactly AA when he calls. and MP realistically QQ+, MAYBE KK+. if you want a project, figure out what % sb has AA out of a 4-bet range of AA-JJ, AK. then that % you get whatever pot odds in a 3-way all in vs AA and AA-QQ,AKs (suited just to represent that sometimes hell shove over w AK, but usually hell fold). then the % he doesnt have AA, youre getting some dead money and are facing just a range of AA-QQ,AKs HU. i have a feeling that makes the situation a good bit better

jkkkk · #53 03-09-2007, 11:44 PM

punter11235 never folds this in case anyone was wondering.

fwiw I think its a fold

jlkrusty · #54 03-09-2007, 11:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Who said that the 4th bet is always Aces?...

[/ QUOTE ]

Phil Gordon said that. At one point in poker's history, that might have been true. But, in today's hyper-aggressive environment, it's not.

Josh. · #55 03-09-2007, 11:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 36.266% 34.40% 01.87% 780877512 42348168.00 { KK }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 27.447% 24.14% 03.31% 289868544 39705784.00 { KK }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 22.941% 18.55% 04.39% 164798064 38976024.00 { KK }

[/ QUOTE ]

If the other two are all in, the pot will be $1,149, and I will have to put in $551 to get to showdown. If I go all in too, the pot will be $1,700. In other words, I am risking $551 to win a $1,700 pot (actually $1,697 after the rake). So, I need equity of 32.47% to make this shove.

I have that much equity in your first range of hands. And, I think their range is at least that. However, there is another problem. If I shove, SB can now play perfectly and probably won't go in with anything less than QQ (and maybe nothing less than KK). Shouldn't that be a factor as well?

I'm starting to think that calling is just high variance with close to neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah if SB is any good he's going to have exactly AA when he calls. and MP realistically QQ+, MAYBE KK+. if you want a project, figure out what % sb has AA out of a 4-bet range of AA-JJ, AK. then that % you get whatever pot odds in a 3-way all in vs AA and AA-QQ,AKs (suited just to represent that sometimes hell shove over w AK, but usually hell fold). then the % he doesnt have AA, youre getting some dead money and are facing just a range of AA-QQ,AKs HU. i have a feeling that makes the situation a good bit better

[/ QUOTE ]

28% of the time sb has AA-KK and you have 16% equity 3 ways. 72% of the time you get sb's dead money and get it in with 52% equity headsup

FireStorm · #56 03-10-2007, 12:01 AM

4th bet isn't always AA anymore, obviously. Back then, probably. Here, probably.

One has to wonder, if you can't reason for a fold here, apparently you never can unless you're insanely deep. I can't imagine one buy in facing more heat preflop.

I think this is a fold, I don't think MP is doing this light against the SB's move, or with AK often enough to justify getting your stack in. I really don't think he ever has QQ here either.

jlkrusty · #57 03-10-2007, 12:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 31.867% 29.00% 02.87% 658184652 65186820.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 36.266% 34.40% 01.87% 780877512 42348168.00 { KK }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 36.277% 32.81% 03.46% 393996096 41606992.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 27.447% 24.14% 03.31% 289868544 39705784.00 { KK }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 38.529% 34.14% 04.39% 303253308 38983944.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 2: 22.941% 18.55% 04.39% 164798064 38976024.00 { KK }

[/ QUOTE ]

If the other two are all in, the pot will be $1,149, and I will have to put in $551 to get to showdown. If I go all in too, the pot will be $1,700. In other words, I am risking $551 to win a $1,700 pot (actually $1,697 after the rake). So, I need equity of 32.47% to make this shove.

I have that much equity in your first range of hands. And, I think their range is at least that. However, there is another problem. If I shove, SB can now play perfectly and probably won't go in with anything less than QQ (and maybe nothing less than KK). Shouldn't that be a factor as well?

I'm starting to think that calling is just high variance with close to neutral EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah if SB is any good he's going to have exactly AA when he calls. and MP realistically QQ+, MAYBE KK+. if you want a project, figure out what % sb has AA out of a 4-bet range of AA-JJ, AK. then that % you get whatever pot odds in a 3-way all in vs AA and AA-QQ,AKs (suited just to represent that sometimes hell shove over w AK, but usually hell fold). then the % he doesnt have AA, youre getting some dead money and are facing just a range of AA-QQ,AKs HU. i have a feeling that makes the situation a good bit better

[/ QUOTE ]

28% of the time sb has AA-KK and you have 16% equity 3 ways. 72% of the time you get sb's dead money and get it in with 52% equity headsup

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to assume for purposes of calculating that your statement that "SB has AA-KK 28% of the time" is correct. However, please tell me how you determined that.

Also, I realized the BB put in $6 as well. So, in my analysis below, I'll add $6 to the total pot amount.

I now calculate as follows:

Situation #1: If SB has KK-AA, then my EV on that situation is (.16 * $1,703) - $551 = -$278.52. Multiply that by the chance of this occuring, and I get -$77.99 EV.

Situation #2: If SB does not have KK-AA, then my EV on that situation is (.52 * $1,162) - $424 = +$180.24. If I multiply that by the chance of situation occuring, I get +$129.77.

So, if I add situation #1 and situation #2 together, I get an overall EV of +$51.79.

Based on this analysis, I should just shove. Josh, is that what you conclude?

homeschool · #58 03-10-2007, 12:52 AM

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i wouldnt fold here

the 600nl game plays too crazy to ever be laying down kk pre for 1 buyin. u will see AK/QQ here enough to justify yer call. only way this gets interesting is if yer 1200+ deep

[/ QUOTE ]

soah · #59 03-10-2007, 01:24 AM

This depends on your own image a bit. In position I tend to call with playable hands much more often than I reraise which will cut down a lot on how often people play back at me without the goods, which is why I would fold here when two people are showing tons of strength. If you're threebetting your mid pairs and suited connectors nonstop then maybe this is different for you.

jlkrusty · #60 03-10-2007, 03:52 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($482)
Hero ($719)
SB ($609)
BB ($684)
UTG ($199.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $18, Hero raises to $58, SB raises to $192, 1 fold, MP raises to $482, Hero folds, SB calls $290.

Flop: ($1028) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: ($1028) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($1028) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $1028

Results in white below: 
SB has Ts Tc (one pair, tens).
MP has Jh Jd (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: MP wins $1028.