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#51
03-12-2007, 05:06 PM
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Re: Colorado Poker, does it exist
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This is a ridiculous waste of time and effort. I would spend more than $100 of my time simply making the bet happen. [/ QUOTE ] Ill happily raise the stakes to $1,000 if we can assure a fair wager. [/ QUOTE ] No one's state WHAT the wager is. Any questions of fairness surely have to take a back seat to that. [/ QUOTE ] Beat the 2/5 spread limit game over a period of 200 hours (I think this is a reasonable amount of time, I'll differ to others on the time period although its also very short - we can revisit that in the near future) for more than 7 BB/hour and I give you 1k - provided there is an accurate mutually trustworthy method of recording your sessions. If you don't beat it for more than 7BB/hour - you have to pay up to me 1k. Of course you can also have wagers with Patrick and anyone else who wants in on this action if you believe that strongly in your ability to pull in more than 7bb/hour. TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Sounds like a no-wager. $5/hour max result (my expectation would be lower, since this is a mater of probability obviously) to put up with numerous headaches. Here's a wager I will take: I play 2/5 one hour at at time. At the end of each hour, you pay me $100 if I'm up more than $35, and I pay you $100 if not. You commit to wager on up to 200 hours over the next year, I don't commit to anything since game conditions could go south, and game selection is a key part of how I achieve my win rate. This makes the wager less unwieldy in terms of record keeping, and makes it worth my while. Be aware that it is probably illegal for a person with a CO gaming license to facilitate such a wager, but the wager itself would be legal in CO. This might be a wrench in the works, but isn't my problem per se as you're the one who really wants this. |
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#52
03-12-2007, 05:10 PM
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Re: Colorado Poker, does it exist
[ QUOTE ]
I play 2/5 one hour at at time. At the end of each hour, you pay me $100 if I'm up more than $35, and I pay you $100 if not. You commit to wager on up to 200 hours over the next year, I don't commit to anything since game conditions could go south, and game selection is a key part of how I achieve my win rate. This makes the wager less unwieldy in terms of record keeping, and makes it worth my while. [/ QUOTE ] This is also a completely different bet. If you win $35, win $35, and then lose $50 you have made $20 in those three hours and are ahead on your bet. |
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#53
03-12-2007, 05:14 PM
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Re: Colorado Poker, does it exist
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I play 2/5 one hour at at time. At the end of each hour, you pay me $100 if I'm up more than $35, and I pay you $100 if not. You commit to wager on up to 200 hours over the next year, I don't commit to anything since game conditions could go south, and game selection is a key part of how I achieve my win rate. This makes the wager less unwieldy in terms of record keeping, and makes it worth my while. [/ QUOTE ] This is also a completely different bet. If you win $35, win $35, and then lose $50 you have made $20 in those three hours and are ahead on your bet. [/ QUOTE ] It is somewhat different. However, it likewise has a long run since the bet will be repeated over multiple hours. If you believe in the normal/SD view of poker earnings, then they're actually fairly similar. |
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#54
03-12-2007, 05:16 PM
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Re: Colorado Poker, does it exist
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This is a ridiculous waste of time and effort. I would spend more than $100 of my time simply making the bet happen. [/ QUOTE ] Ill happily raise the stakes to $1,000 if we can assure a fair wager. [/ QUOTE ] No one's state WHAT the wager is. Any questions of fairness surely have to take a back seat to that. [/ QUOTE ] Beat the 2/5 spread limit game over a period of 200 hours (I think this is a reasonable amount of time, I'll differ to others on the time period although its also very short - we can revisit that in the near future) for more than 7 BB/hour and I give you 1k - provided there is an accurate mutually trustworthy method of recording your sessions. If you don't beat it for more than 7BB/hour - you have to pay up to me 1k. Of course you can also have wagers with Patrick and anyone else who wants in on this action if you believe that strongly in your ability to pull in more than 7bb/hour. TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Sounds like a no-wager. $5/hour max result (my expectation would be lower, since this is a mater of probability obviously) to put up with numerous headaches. Here's a wager I will take: I play 2/5 one hour at at time. At the end of each hour, you pay me $100 if I'm up more than $35, and I pay you $100 if not. You commit to wager on up to 200 hours over the next year, I don't commit to anything since game conditions could go south, and game selection is a key part of how I achieve my win rate. This makes the wager less unwieldy in terms of record keeping, and makes it worth my while. [/ QUOTE ] I suggest you read Gambling Theory and other Topics by Mason to understand the concept of winrate, standard deviation, and confidence. Nobody here would accept your terms, they are one sided and unreasonable - no doubt designed y you to avoid seeing the truth, that there is no way your winrate is that high. Fluctuations in winrate happens on an hour by hour basis, session by session, etc. Win rate is a statistical average of these natural fluctuations. One session you might be up 45BB, and the next 2 sessions you might be down 10BB each. The long run is how we determine winrate, anything shorter is just kidding yourself - and I'm here to tell you there there is no way in hell you have an 8BB/hour long term winrate. Even my 200 hour proposal was far shorter than the long run, but I'm willing to wager 1k that you wouldn't succeed in that short amount of time - and in reality a shorter time frame is likely more advantageous to you yet it was perfectly acceptable to me! I'm sorry to say it, but not accepting my terms yet still wanting to bet is practically admitting your wrong. |
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#55
03-12-2007, 05:17 PM
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Re: Colorado Poker, does it exist
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I play 2/5 one hour at at time. At the end of each hour, you pay me $100 if I'm up more than $35, and I pay you $100 if not. You commit to wager on up to 200 hours over the next year, I don't commit to anything since game conditions could go south, and game selection is a key part of how I achieve my win rate. This makes the wager less unwieldy in terms of record keeping, and makes it worth my while. [/ QUOTE ] This is also a completely different bet. If you win $35, win $35, and then lose $50 you have made $20 in those three hours and are ahead on your bet. [/ QUOTE ] It is somewhat different. However, it likewise has a long run since the bet will be repeated over multiple hours. If you believe in the normal/SD view of poker earnings, then they're actually fairly similar. [/ QUOTE ] And you can stop playing at any time your significantly ahead/behind. No way is someone going to give you that edge, it has to be a fair playing ground. |
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#56
03-12-2007, 05:22 PM
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Re: Colorado Poker, does it exist
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This is a ridiculous waste of time and effort. I would spend more than $100 of my time simply making the bet happen. [/ QUOTE ] Ill happily raise the stakes to $1,000 if we can assure a fair wager. [/ QUOTE ] No one's state WHAT the wager is. Any questions of fairness surely have to take a back seat to that. [/ QUOTE ] Beat the 2/5 spread limit game over a period of 200 hours (I think this is a reasonable amount of time, I'll differ to others on the time period although its also very short - we can revisit that in the near future) for more than 7 BB/hour and I give you 1k - provided there is an accurate mutually trustworthy method of recording your sessions. If you don't beat it for more than 7BB/hour - you have to pay up to me 1k. Of course you can also have wagers with Patrick and anyone else who wants in on this action if you believe that strongly in your ability to pull in more than 7bb/hour. TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Sounds like a no-wager. $5/hour max result (my expectation would be lower, since this is a mater of probability obviously) to put up with numerous headaches. [/ QUOTE ] There's hardly any extra work for you - it's not asking you to put in an extra 200 hours of work on this bet, just keep good verifiable records of your next 200 hours of play that you're putting in anyway. It's an extra $1k added to or subtracted from what you're making anyway. |
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#57
03-12-2007, 05:28 PM
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Re: Colorado Poker, does it exist
[ QUOTE ]
And you can stop playing at any time your significantly ahead/behind. No way is someone going to give you that edge, it has to be a fair playing ground. [/ QUOTE ] Do you mean in terms of the number of hours of wager I trigger, or within a given hour? I would say either is a non-issue since arbitrary stops don't change expectation if you believe the results in question are normal. In any case, I don't much care if you don't accept. You're the one who wants this, not me. |
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#58
03-12-2007, 05:31 PM
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Re: Colorado Poker, does it exist
You don't have records you can show me to back up your point? It shouldn't be that hard to give some form of proof of your results. This wagers should be easy money for you and yet you're reluctant to take on any of them.
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#59
03-12-2007, 05:33 PM
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Re: Colorado Poker, does it exist
[ QUOTE ]
I suggest you read Gambling Theory and other Topics by Mason to understand the concept of winrate, standard deviation, and confidence. Nobody here would accept your terms, they are one sided and unreasonable - no doubt designed y you to avoid seeing the truth, that there is no way your winrate is that high. Fluctuations in winrate happens on an hour by hour basis, session by session, etc. Win rate is a statistical average of these natural fluctuations. One session you might be up 45BB, and the next 2 sessions you might be down 10BB each. The long run is how we determine winrate, anything shorter is just kidding yourself - and I'm here to tell you there there is no way in hell you have an 8BB/hour long term winrate. Even my 200 hour proposal was far shorter than the long run, but I'm willing to wager 1k that you wouldn't succeed in that short amount of time - and in reality a shorter time frame is likely more advantageous to you yet it was perfectly acceptable to me! I'm sorry to say it, but not accepting my terms yet still wanting to bet is practically admitting your wrong. [/ QUOTE ] I understand winrate and SD very well. Your supposed explanation is both academically lax and pointless as I understand the material in question at least as well as you do. And of course I offered you a bet I intended to win - why does that surprise you? I'm not in the habit of offering bets I intend to lose. Duh. Not accepting your bet is a matter of the terms involved being unfavorable, and the opportunity cost created by the hassles involved too high for too little gain. it really has nothing to do with the question of my win rate. |
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#60
03-12-2007, 05:34 PM
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Re: Colorado Poker, does it exist
[ QUOTE ]
You don't have records you can show me to back up your point? It shouldn't be that hard to give some form of proof of your results. This wagers should be easy money for you and yet you're reluctant to take on any of them. [/ QUOTE ] I have records, and have no interest in showing them to you because the value of the other information I would let out the door by doing so is more than $100. |
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