Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn

[curtains]

I would just call. If I had about 7000 chips, I would raise. I would probably not bluff the river because a turn slowplay seems unlikely considering the coordinatedness of the board. What I mean is that it's unlikely Im slowplaying a set on the turn on a board of QT9 etc, and our opponent could probably deduce this.

[Rduke55]

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CO's bet (with the big stack) smells like "no one is interested in this pot, let me see if I can pick it off with a bet". I'm more concerned with MJ, but I like the raise to 5000.

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And I don't think he's put us all in with any 2 here. Our check on the flop (I still like a bet there) followed by a raise on the turn looks string to me if I were in his shoes.

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Should read "strong". Edit time elapsed.

[schwza]

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I am completely baffled by those advocating a fold. You are getting 2.3:1 on your money with 15 outs (possibly more, possibly less). So, even without betting on the river this is a call. Add the probability that there will be river action, and it is obviously a situation you want to be involved in. Additionally, why on earth did we check the flop if we are going to fold on a dream card turn???

To those that advocate a raise... This would be a pretty lame bluff that gets snapped a hell off a lot more than a flop bluff. There is so much that he can call/push if we bluff here TT,99,44,KJ,J8,QT,T9,Q9,QJ are all possible holdings that can call a bluff. Unlike the flop, this board is NOT a good board to bluff into. Raising here does one thing: it commits half our stack on a 35% shot if he flat calls, and 100% of our stack on a 35% draw if he pushes. I like royal draws as much as the next guy, but I'm not about to cripple myself by betting the farm on the Royals to beat the Red Sox.

This is a flat call. I agree with those who have said that MJ is done with hand. I certainly hope that he doesn't wake up with a monster, but I can still reduce my hand to 11 outs and redo the math based on KJ for MJ and whatever he decides to raise. Additionally, it would be madness to bet on the river if we miss.

CSC

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nice post. i'm reconsidering.

[Exitonly]

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nice post. i'm reconsidering.

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Yea, i might be moving over to the flatcall side too.. i think raising is +EV.. just calling looks like it's more.

[K-mac]

I call. I am not sure of a range, but i would say that he is trying to price us out of the flush. (Again i am new so i could be TOTALLY wrong here.)

[bugstud]

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I am completely baffled by those advocating a fold. You are getting 2.3:1 on your money with 15 outs (possibly more, possibly less). So, even without betting on the river this is a call. Add the probability that there will be river action, and it is obviously a situation you want to be involved in. Additionally, why on earth did we check the flop if we are going to fold on a dream card turn???

To those that advocate a raise... This would be a pretty lame bluff that gets snapped a hell off a lot more than a flop bluff. There is so much that he can call/push if we bluff here TT,99,44,KJ,J8,QT,T9,Q9,QJ are all possible holdings that can call a bluff. Unlike the flop, this board is NOT a good board to bluff into. Raising here does one thing: it commits half our stack on a 35% shot if he flat calls, and 100% of our stack on a 35% draw if he pushes. I like royal draws as much as the next guy, but I'm not about to cripple myself by betting the farm on the Royals to beat the Red Sox.

This is a flat call. I agree with those who have said that MJ is done with hand. I certainly hope that he doesn't wake up with a monster, but I can still reduce my hand to 11 outs and redo the math based on KJ for MJ and whatever he decides to raise. Additionally, it would be madness to bet on the river if we miss.

CSC

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nice post. i'm reconsidering.

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What exactly are we calling with here? He should be able to put you on a draw when you flatcall here and play accordingly.

[Toro]

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nice post. i'm reconsidering.

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Yea, i might be moving over to the flatcall side too.. i think raising is +EV.. just calling looks like it's more.

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I was in the raise camp but you know there has to be a "River" part of this exercise so it's obvious that Hero doesn't take it down here with a raise.

Side question to Lloyd: Are we to assume the 600 raise preflop and check on the flop were the "correct" plays?

[locutus2002]

Hero calls.

Hero should continue to play the hand weakly after checking the flop. What a waste. Hero is getting 2.3:1 to call the turn, and he probably has 13 outs but will only get paid on 4 of them, and is 2.6:1 against in the hand. Hero is getting about the right odds to call but now needs to rely on luck.

It's no longer credible that hero has AA-JJ, so hero probably has no FE as a Q is likely in one of villain's hands.

It's even worse for hero because if SB pushes hero should lay the hand down (unless CO calls too). I think hero should call anyways because SB has not made an effort to win the pot and might have led the turn with a hand (reducing his chance of having a hand since he did not lead the turn).

[CardSharpCook]

Bugs, I agree with your post that showed the difficulty of getting a river to pay, however, sometimes the most obvious play is still the correct one. Also, I don't think it is asking too much that CO puts us on possibly AQ/KQ or possibly a busted str8 draw, busted flush draw on a river that completes one of our draws. If we hit the river, we can still bet 2500 or so and expect a call from many of CO's possible hands.

[curtains]

Also please note that you stand to win a big pot if a king comes and your opponent has a jack.