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#51
01-28-2007, 05:22 PM
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Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] also, i don't remember that much about ayla other than she was tall, hot and could really sing... but can't remember what she did to drop so quickly. [/ QUOTE ] I had a good bit of money on Ayla. She didn't really drop, she was just never a favorite. You don't remember much about her because her performances were forgettable, she didn't have much stage presence or personality. Or if she did, the producers never showed it. Her dancing looked pretty awkward. She opened at 3-5 I believe, and never really moved until she was eliminated. I thought if she managed to survive a few weeks and pick up a fan base she could go far, because she was pretty hot and sang well. [/ QUOTE ] I thought Ayla was awesome and was very bummed when she got booted. I think she lost votes because of her height actually, and that she's jocky. Not a natural beauty like McPhee. But she was a gamer and got better every week. Total travesty. [/ QUOTE ] No, Ayla got no support because she was too privileged. She was too good at everything. Excellent singer. Varsity athlete. Hot. Rich parents. Nobody's going to get behind that. [/ QUOTE ] those thoughts never entered my mind. can't speak for the rest of america though. 
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#52
01-28-2007, 06:56 PM
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Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
i had 100 contracts on her expire at zero. i usually dump the early speculative stuff before the contestant is actually eliminated, but she had great talent. i think she got an awful deal from the judges in re: to her performances. i thought they were near flawless. ONLY thing i did not like was her poofy hair on performance nights. the straight, pulled back hair she wore the other 99% of the time worked perfectly on her. she was a magnificent natural beauty imo. however the DOO on performance night was very retro (in a bad way).
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#53
01-28-2007, 07:59 PM
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Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
[ QUOTE ]
i had 100 contracts on her expire at zero. [/ QUOTE ] That's interesting, I didn't realize you had so much of her. That probably wasn't a very high percentage of your holdings though was it? Was this from your $10k fund? Either way I don't feel as bad anymore about taking such a big loss on Ayla.
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#54
01-28-2007, 08:11 PM
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Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i had 100 contracts on her expire at zero. [/ QUOTE ] That's interesting, I didn't realize you had so much of her. That probably wasn't a very high percentage of your holdings though was it? Was this from your $10k fund? Either way I don't feel as bad anymore about taking such a big loss on Ayla. [/ QUOTE ] it was nothing. $500 i think. it was personal contracts. i do a lot of speculation bets at the beginning, and probably lose a few bucks overall, tho never had lost $500 on a single person in one of these 'pre-seriousness' plays. these plays are 1/2 the fun of it. sort of like the 20 extra quinellas i buy when i go to the window to put $100 on a horse to win. with idol tho, by the time it is down to 10 contestants, all the games are done, and my $$ and fund $$ are in one or two contestants.. never more.
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#55
01-29-2007, 03:27 AM
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Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
Here's a pretty interesting Blake Lewis performance on youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2cj8XXzRC8 This guy could make some noise if he makes it to the fan-voting rounds, since he'll probably be pretty unique.
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#56
01-30-2007, 12:39 PM
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Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
EW has their weekly AI power list posted on the web. They rank Porcelana 2nd, which is wayyy off IMO. Be very surprised if she makes top 24.
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#57
01-30-2007, 01:12 PM
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Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
Does anyone else thinks it's hard or almost impossible to pick favorites so early on? Sure, Sundance had one of if not the best voice but does anyone expect him to win? I definitely don't. In fact I don't know if the best pure "singer" ever wins, it is a combination of factors from what I can tell. Unfortunately, I've only come close to watching one season the whole way through (season 4) and a lot of last season, where I thought Elliot and Chris were the best but Chris was too rock and Elliot wasn't marketable enough (although they did make 3 and 4). No way I could place bets at this point based on what we've seen and if I had to I would just go with the better looking contestants (Jenry/hotter girl of the friends/cute Indian girl). Once you get closer to the top 12 you find out who can really sing and who can't (ala Elliot last year). That doesn't mean the person will win but you can at least ride them for a while if they start low. Also, Porcelana was gross, I can't imagine her going far either.
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#58
01-30-2007, 02:14 PM
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Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else thinks it's hard or almost impossible to pick favorites so early on? Sure, Sundance had one of if not the best voice but does anyone expect him to win? I definitely don't. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you definitely think Sundance won't win? He's my top pick so far. If I had to rank so far I'd pick Sundance, then backup singer, then maybe hotter friend from Jersey. But voice-wise I think Sundance and the backup singer are miles ahead of the rest of them so far this year. Then again, Paris was incredible during her audition last year but fizzled out. So yes it is definitely hard to handicap this early (we haven't even seen most of those put through to Hollywood yet), but you can still start sorting people into "favorite", "keep watching", "dead money", etc.
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#59
01-30-2007, 05:30 PM
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Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Does anyone else thinks it's hard or almost impossible to pick favorites so early on? Sure, Sundance had one of if not the best voice but does anyone expect him to win? I definitely don't. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you definitely think Sundance won't win? He's my top pick so far. If I had to rank so far I'd pick Sundance, then backup singer, then maybe hotter friend from Jersey. But voice-wise I think Sundance and the backup singer are miles ahead of the rest of them so far this year. Then again, Paris was incredible during her audition last year but fizzled out. So yes it is definitely hard to handicap this early (we haven't even seen most of those put through to Hollywood yet), but you can still start sorting people into "favorite", "keep watching", "dead money", etc. [/ QUOTE ] When you talk about "favorites", do you mean to win the whole competition or just to go far? I'm not sure if people handle this like a poker tourney where getting to the FT is like one goal, and then winning is another. Obviously you don't have to pick the winner to make money but it would be nice. I would estimate Sundance makes finals but I would not pick him to win just yet. I guess you could say he probably had the best voice, but yeah whatever, not sure what that means in terms of results. Still you guys probably know better than me, I'm just puttin gideas out there.
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#60
02-01-2007, 01:18 PM
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Re: Early Favorites....who not to bet on and who to pay attention to
[ QUOTE ]
Contestants must be US Citizens. [snip] Here is a link to the eligibility requirements. I will add it to the FAQ: Rules [/ QUOTE ] From your link: [ QUOTE ] You must be able to prove at the time of your audition, if any, that: * You are a legal U.S. citizen or a permanent U.S. resident who is eligible to work full-time in the United States; and * You are 16 to 28 years old on August 6, 2006 (which means you must be born on or between August 7, 1977, and August 6, 1990). [/ QUOTE ]
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