Variance

[mike l.]

just so long as all of you keep playing online and dont play live. that's all that matters to me.

[DrSavage]

Dean, I used to think exactly like you until 800 BB slide hit me in the face. Regardless of how good a player you are , there will be long stretches where you're just not dealt winning hands. Add to that the fact that when you are running bad it's fairly impossible to maintain any sort of good image and this will escalate your losses dramatically.

[The DaveR]

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My biggest ever downswing is about 270bb.

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You are a lucky SOB.

[PokerBob]

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My biggest ever downswing is about 270bb.

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You are a lucky SOB.

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[Trix]

Think mine is 200ish...bahahahaha [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
Dont think I played much more than 150-200K hands of limit though..

[The DaveR]

Why doesn't someone just reverse the problem and estimate, given say 200 players with winrates of 1 BB/100 the likelihood of 1 or more having a 450 BB downswing. I suspect the probability is uncomfortably large.

[NLSoldier]

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Why doesn't someone just reverse the problem and estimate, given say 200 players with winrates of 1 BB/100 the likelihood of 1 or more having a 450 BB downswing. I suspect the probability is uncomfortably large.

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pretty sure this is pretty much what GoT did a while back, i think he did it for various winrates though, and yes the numbers were scary as hell.

Im sure someone could dig up a link.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why doesn't someone just reverse the problem and estimate, given say 200 players with winrates of 1 BB/100 the likelihood of 1 or more having a 450 BB downswing. I suspect the probability is uncomfortably large.

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pretty sure this is pretty much what GoT did a while back, i think he did it for various winrates though, and yes the numbers were scary as hell.

Im sure someone could dig up a link.

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joshthief did it too with similiarly scary results.

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
Why doesn't someone just reverse the problem and estimate, given say 200 players with winrates of 1 BB/100 the likelihood of 1 or more having a 450 BB downswing. I suspect the probability is uncomfortably large.

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You also need to specify how many hands each player plays. If they each play 10K hands, it's probably not a certainty (though still quite likely). If each plays 100K hands, then it is just about an absolute certainty.

[aba20]

I think people use variance to rationalize why they are only small winners or losing. I always take the mentality that my results are based on my play. People act like there is some outside force beyond their control. Well there isn't your results are based off of your actions and nothing else. People need to take responsibility for there losses and realize they are to blame for losing and not some statistical anomaly. When I am losing or on a downswing I don't blame variance or bad luck I look to myself, because I know that I am probably off my game. I take responsibility for the losses and look to improve my game. I know this is kind of a rant but my one point that I think can help 95% of players on this board is this; Take responsibility for your play and results. Both are a direct cause from your actions.