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#51
01-13-2007, 03:09 AM
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Re: 400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] are you guys really thinking of pushing here? it's not a steal and a re-steal. it's UTG and UTG+1 3 betting. best case is if everyone folds we win $110. it's not worth it here, fold and wait for a better spot. I don't think it's remotely close to a push. [/ QUOTE ] UTG is 28/22. UTG1 is 30/25. Button plays 70% of his hands! It's definitely not a clear fold. [/ QUOTE ] if it's a steal and a re-steal I'd push it, but we can wait for a better spot. it's not like a 28/22 is opening 22% of his hands from utg, and the 30/25 certainly isn't 3 betting from utg+1 vs a 28/22 with more then 10% of his hands. When we get called we're dominated. IMO this is a clear fold. edit: the button doesn't concern me. 
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#52
01-13-2007, 03:15 AM
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Re: 400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] are you guys really thinking of pushing here? it's not a steal and a re-steal. it's UTG and UTG+1 3 betting. best case is if everyone folds we win $110. it's not worth it here, fold and wait for a better spot. I don't think it's remotely close to a push. [/ QUOTE ] UTG is 28/22. UTG1 is 30/25. Button plays 70% of his hands! It's definitely not a clear fold. [/ QUOTE ] if it's a steal and a re-steal I'd push it, but we can wait for a better spot. it's not like a 28/22 is opening 22% of his hands from utg, and the 30/25 certainly isn't 3 betting from utg+1 vs a 28/22 with more then 10% of his hands. When we get called we're dominated. IMO this is a clear fold. edit: the button doesn't concern me. [/ QUOTE ] This is not good enough. The 3-betting range of UTG1 has to be tight as well for this to be an easy fold. Your analysis doesn't account for the times that we take it down PF. And I think QQ/AK definitely call the shove.
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#53
01-13-2007, 03:48 AM
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Re: 400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?
I'm not sold. I think we can find a better spot. I understand what you're saying, but I think there's too good of a chance we're getting called here. would you still be pushing if button hadn't cold called? FWIW I still think this is a very easy fold.
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#54
01-13-2007, 04:18 AM
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Re: 400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?
[ QUOTE ]
would you still be pushing if button hadn't cold called? [/ QUOTE ] No way, his dead money is what possibly makes this move profitable, or at least that was my intuition at the table and it appears to be correct.
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#55
01-13-2007, 04:19 AM
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Re: 400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] would you still be pushing if button hadn't cold called? [/ QUOTE ] No way, his dead money is what possibly makes this move profitable, or at least that was my intuition at the table and it appears to be correct. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, button is crucial. Even more importantly, there's a good chance that button calls us (esp when it gets folded around) with a hand we dominate.
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#56
01-13-2007, 04:22 AM
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Re: 400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?
As much as I hate folding AK preflop I think its good spot for it.
I think one of them have AA/KK too often there.
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#57
01-13-2007, 04:32 AM
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Re: 400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] would you still be pushing if button hadn't cold called? [/ QUOTE ] No way, his dead money is what possibly makes this move profitable, or at least that was my intuition at the table and it appears to be correct. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, button is crucial. Even more importantly, there's a good chance that button calls us (esp when it gets folded around) with a hand we dominate. [/ QUOTE ] there's also a strong possibility that he calls us w/ 77, and if one of the other 2 players folded AQ or something the 77 is a big favorite over us.
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#58
01-13-2007, 04:33 AM
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Re: 400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] would you still be pushing if button hadn't cold called? [/ QUOTE ] No way, his dead money is what possibly makes this move profitable, or at least that was my intuition at the table and it appears to be correct. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, button is crucial. Even more importantly, there's a good chance that button calls us (esp when it gets folded around) with a hand we dominate. [/ QUOTE ] there's also a strong possibility that he calls us w/ 77, and if one of the other 2 players folded AQ or something the 77 is a big favorite over us. [/ QUOTE ] If UTG folds AQ and button calls with 77 there is MORE than enough dead money to make it +EV
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#59
01-13-2007, 04:41 AM
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Re: 400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?
Interesting point: chances are, given the action so far, that several of your outs are toast. Best case is that someone calls with AQ or something, second best case is everyone folds. But, I think you're laying too high a price on your AK to try and make either happen.
4-betting small sucks becuase button always calls, and then you're usually screwed on the flop. 4-betting huge sucks because you get owned by bigger hands a fair bit of the time (aka its not worth shoving 400 to try and win 120) I don't mind the fold. This isnt a spot we need to try and squeeze a little bit of value out, when huge variance is the expense.
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#60
01-13-2007, 04:42 AM
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Re: 400nl - LOL fold AK preflop?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] would you still be pushing if button hadn't cold called? [/ QUOTE ] No way, his dead money is what possibly makes this move profitable, or at least that was my intuition at the table and it appears to be correct. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, button is crucial. Even more importantly, there's a good chance that button calls us (esp when it gets folded around) with a hand we dominate. [/ QUOTE ] there's also a strong possibility that he calls us w/ 77, and if one of the other 2 players folded AQ or something the 77 is a big favorite over us. [/ QUOTE ] YEA BUT WHAT IF THEY FOLDED THE OTHER 77 ???
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