*** JANUARY 2007 Low Content Thread ***

[Troll_Inc]

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If you ran away from 60/40s in this game you would not have a win rate IMO. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Running from 60/40's may be a slight exaggeration, but I would bet also some of your 60/40's really end up being coinflips?

Anyway seriously, I know it's just PLO25, but I signficantly retooled my game where previously I'd look for situations where I thought I was getting even money and pushing small edges. I was reading hands well and usually knew what I was getting myself into. As you know that leads to pretty decent variance.

Now post-retooling, I'll call a PSB on the flop. But if I'm putting my money in on the turn, it's only as a significant favorite, i.e. I hit my nut hand and opponent is often drawing to pair the board or to a flush. Sure, your game isn't this easy, but I'm guessing that with deception you can still be a winning while passing on less than optimal situations.

[TheRempel]

You will not win against anybody but megafish playing that way. You are giving your good opponents perfect information about your hand far too often.

[Troll_Inc]

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You will not win against anybody but megafish playing that way. You are giving your good opponents perfect information about your hand far too often.

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First of all, why the hell would I play against good players? I'll let you guys do that.

Second, this is only a discussion about pushing in marginal spots. Playing with deception and reading your opponents are separate issues. Are you suggesting that you can't pass on marginal situations and still play with deception and against an opponents likely range?

[Professorn]

I've been a winning player now for 1½ year. My goal is to continue win as much as I need to not take a loan for my studies, and hopefully I can win a little more than that for a loooong trip in 1½ year.

I hope I will be a winner at $200 PLO in the end of this year.

Nothing more worthless to add, see ya

[cmyr]

spots where you're either 60% or 40% to win-- there being something of a proverb around PLO that the key to winning higher stakes omaha is making sure you're the one with the 60%.


troll: a 60% edge is huge, and intentionally passing them up because there's some variance is just dumb. at a 2-4 game with 100bb stacks, getting it all in 60-40 has $80 EV, which is not something I'm personally willing to pass up on.

[Troll_Inc]

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spots where you're either 60% or 40% to win-- there being something of a proverb around PLO that the key to winning higher stakes omaha is making sure you're the one with the 60%.


troll: a 60% edge is huge, and intentionally passing them up because there's some variance is just dumb. at a 2-4 game with 100bb stacks, getting it all in 60-40 has $80 EV, which is not something I'm personally willing to pass up on.

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As I already said, running from 60/40 was a slight exaggeration. But also, how often do you really have a true 60/40 situation?
Top set vs flush draw and OESD on flop is 57%

Top set vs better SD and flush draw on turn = 60%

Wrap plus flush draw over set on flop is just 54%.

The more I think about this 60/40 thing, I think it's a just a myth propagated by people that like to gambol in big pots and really good players who get fairly good players to believe this 60/40 myth so that they can take advantage of them like a sorority girl who had too much Everclear punch.

[cmyr]

Again this is all more or less irrelevant, since you don't know when you push top set if your opponent is going to have an underset, top two and an OESD, or a huge combo draw; pointing out that there are a few situations where you're only /marginally/ ahead doesn't really do anything.

Before I go on, though, I'd just like to point out that the three examples you've provided have a combined EV of $150~, which isn't a bad hourly rate for a 2/4 game. annnywaaay


the 60/40 problem isn't about finding particular 60/40 matchups, it's about being able to put your opponent on a range, and then being able to push hands of your own that are favourable against that range. Far more often then the sort of huge-matchup hands you've provided above this involves getting it in with hands like bottom pair + the nut flush draw and overcards against an opponent you know checkraises weak drawing hands alot; sometimes you'll be up against a set and not be in great shape, but very frequently you will be up against a lower flush draw + small overpair or a two-pair hand that you are 60+% to win against.


"finding true 60/40" situations is fundamentally not the point; the point is that a big part of profitability in a game like omaha, at the middle levels and above, involves getting your money in when you have a small-but-significant equity edge. This isn't having magic reads and knowing you're 54.6 in this spot, it's about having a good idea of how a hand fairs against a range, and what sort of range you might be up against.

[cmyr]

oh, two unrelated points:

1) does somebody have the link saved from when Silent A played around with the flopalyzer in a discussion of snapping off aces? I thought I had it saved but now I can't find it.

2) if Twenty_Tabling from FT is a 2+2er, I like ur poker.

[TheRempel]

Please point me to these games full of megadonks so I can teach my cat to click the mouse and wait for a 70% edge.

[Troll_Inc]

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Please point me to these games full of megadonks so I can teach my cat to click the mouse and wait for a 70% edge.

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you have a cat?