650BB down swing for a winning player?

[MrBig30]

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When is the last time you saw even a 4 sigma event in your life?

Just keeping things in perspective.

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How many sigmas is winning a million at a lottery?
Just keeping things in perspective. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ghostface]

What kills me the most about the graph is the three 300bb upswings in 6k hands or less...

[sxb]

I started to play Party 10/20 6max in January, 2004. You bet my game has been changed during the course, but not drastically. During that run, my best record for 100k stretch is 4.3bb/100 (09/2004~12/2004). For 50k hands, the best wr is 4.9bb/100. My current 100k stretch is the worst with wr of 1.7bb/100, as for the worst 50k-hand stretch around this 650BB downswing, the wr was 0.3bb/100. I guess this game is crazy:-)

By the way, my latest SD/100 in this game is 17.8.

[Azalin]

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I started to play Party 10/20 6max in January, 2004. You bet my game has been changed during the course, but not drastically. During that run, my best record for 100k stretch is 4.3bb/100 (09/2004~12/2004). For 50k hands, the best wr is 4.9bb/100. My current 100k stretch is the worst with wr of 1.7bb/100, as for the worst 50k-hand stretch around this 650BB downswing, the wr was 0.3bb/100. I guess this game is crazy:-)

By the way, my latest SD/100 in this game is 17.8.

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17.8 !

[Josh.]

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And just for the record other posters -- 3bb winners don't have substantial enough tilt to account for 650bb downswings. Assuming OP is telling the complete truth about his winrate after 500k hands, we can ignore tilt as a major factor.

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This isn't true at all. A 3bb/100 winner might play great when things are going good but have a tilt threshhold where they absolutely lose it after they lose a certain number of BB's. Just because someone has eliminated tilt as an everyday problem doesn't mean they won't ever be affected by it again.

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*COUGH* MICHAEL DAVIS

[Josh.]

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I started to play Party 10/20 6max in January, 2004. You bet my game has been changed during the course, but not drastically. During that run, my best record for 100k stretch is 4.3bb/100 (09/2004~12/2004). For 50k hands, the best wr is 4.9bb/100. My current 100k stretch is the worst with wr of 1.7bb/100, as for the worst 50k-hand stretch around this 650BB downswing, the wr was 0.3bb/100. I guess this game is crazy:-)

By the way, my latest SD/100 in this game is 17.8.

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17.8 !

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that's normal

[MicroBob]

I really don't know my way around variance math or SD stuff very well....but here's another way of looking at it:


If you play 100 sets of 20k hands (total of 2-million hands) what are the chances that one of those sets of 20k hands is a 300BB downswing?
I would think that it's pretty likely that one of those 20k hands sets will end up 300BB to the negative.

So lets just simplify and put it at 1 in every 100 sets will be something like this.

So what are the chances of having that kind of down-swing back to back? About 1 in 10,000.

This means it's not extremely likely...but certainly it's a lot easier than winning the lottery (for example).

1 in 10000 happens all the freaking time....just hitting the BBJ is a much longer shot than this.
Or QQ vs. KK vs. AA and all of them hit their sets.
Or hitting quads on back to back hands.
These types of things are way higher than 1 in 10,000....but if someone posts a situation like this as being SO impossible we all generally react, "dude...the sites aren't rigged. unlikely things just happen with the cards sometimes. that's poker. that's life."


BTW - This kind of 300BB downswing stuff can be changed around to 200BB downswings instead.
We all KNOW that 200BB downswings do happen and aren't THAT uncommon.
If you have enough sets of 10k or 20k hands....then somewhere in there you are likely to put a couple of those 200BB downswings back to back....
and if you're getting REALLY unlucky AND are hurting yourself with some tilt (predicatable in this situation I think) then i don't think it's THAT impossible for a winning player to have a 600BB downswing.


For MOST players I would say "Well...it's more likely that it's because you have some bad leaks in your game. And if you didn't have them before you have probably incorporated them into your game now out of frustration (and general fear of your full-house getting cracked by quads again)."


But somewhere there certainly are winning players who suffer back to back 300BB downswings.
and the fact that the internet allows us to play SOOOO many hands just gives you a better chance of seeing that in your lifetime.
Combine that with the fact that we have quite a few posters on here (many of whom are winning players of course) and it doesn't entriely surprise me that we really could hear from someone for whom this genuinely happened.

If this guy's background and downswing are legitimate or not is not really important......just wouldn't surprise me that it's not as impossible as you might initially think.

[ghostface]

AA back to back is 48k:1.

[The Funky Llama]

2 things.

1) Anyone who is going through a downswing in 6max should read this post.
2) Post more strategy in these forums dude.

[ghostface]

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2) Post more strategy in these forums dude.

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No kidding.