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#51
11-09-2006, 10:07 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
Then how come in NFL the low seeds almost never make the Super Bowl while in Hockey low seeds make it all the time, AND they have to play 7 game series. [/ QUOTE ] In hockey the #7/#8 seeds are often the hottest teams in the league having just won a dogfight to get into the playoffs they're at the top of their games. It's not unusual for these teams to be on 6 or 8 game winning streaks. Meanwhile the top seeds may have been coasting for weeks. This is not the case in football. Even if a team cruises into first, they don't have a bunch of meaningless games at the end of the season that they can afford to go .400 in and develop bad habits. They have one or two. Plus football players are used to going a week between games and then having to ratchet everything up for game day. So even if they do take the last couple games of the season off, it's a lot easier for a football team to turn it around for the playoffs. 
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#52
11-09-2006, 10:42 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] How often does the ball bounce? And how often is it significant? [/ QUOTE ] Almost every fumble. It's very significant. Also consider things like tipped passes, which are often intercepted. There is a lot of random variance to that as well. [/ QUOTE ] Almost every fumble. Considering how many fumbles there are, I don't think contributes significantly to the luck of the game.
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#53
11-09-2006, 10:51 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Then how come in NFL the low seeds almost never make the Super Bowl while in Hockey low seeds make it all the time, AND they have to play 7 game series. [/ QUOTE ] In hockey the #7/#8 seeds are often the hottest teams in the league having just won a dogfight to get into the playoffs they're at the top of their games. It's not unusual for these teams to be on 6 or 8 game winning streaks. Meanwhile the top seeds may have been coasting for weeks. This is not the case in football. Even if a team cruises into first, they don't have a bunch of meaningless games at the end of the season that they can afford to go .400 in and develop bad habits. They have one or two. Plus football players are used to going a week between games and then having to ratchet everything up for game day. So even if they do take the last couple games of the season off, it's a lot easier for a football team to turn it around for the playoffs. [/ QUOTE ] Untruthful over generalizations can be fun! What if I were to make a claim like "8th seed teams are teams that were in the middle of the pack of the playoff race and ended the season on a 10 game losing streak to end up 8th in the playoffs and then had to play the hottest team in the world who surged into 1st place riding there 8 game winning streak."
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#54
11-09-2006, 11:38 PM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
If it's a single game we're definitely looking at something like 1. Hockey/Baseball/Soccer 2. Football 3. Basketball. [/ QUOTE ] For a single game, this is my pick for the right answer. But if people need proof, check the betting lines in these sports. The bookmakers don't go broke for a reason, and that reason includes understanding that, for example, baseball has more 1-game uncertainty than basketball does. Look up the line from a basketball game last year with the Pistons playing the Hawks, then compare that to the Yankees playing KC in baseball. The bookies are willing to pose much bigger odds on the basketball game than the baseball game, so the reason has to be that when a strong team plays a weak team, basketball has more 1 game predictability than baseball.
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#55
11-10-2006, 12:20 AM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
Almost every fumble. Considering how many fumbles there are, I don't think contributes significantly to the luck of the game. [/ QUOTE ] When a single bounce can cause a touchdown, yes, it has a significant effect on the game. See: Eagles vs Giants
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#56
11-10-2006, 12:35 AM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Almost every fumble. Considering how many fumbles there are, I don't think contributes significantly to the luck of the game. [/ QUOTE ] When a single bounce can cause a touchdown, yes, it has a significant effect on the game. See: Eagles vs Giants [/ QUOTE ] You really aren't helping your case at all.
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#57
11-10-2006, 12:52 AM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Almost every fumble. Considering how many fumbles there are, I don't think contributes significantly to the luck of the game. [/ QUOTE ] When a single bounce can cause a touchdown, yes, it has a significant effect on the game. See: Eagles vs Giants [/ QUOTE ] Wow, one occurrence?
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#58
11-10-2006, 01:48 AM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
Basketball has by far the biggest luck factor. You can out play your opponent the whole game and then let up 8 points in 11 seconds.
See : Reggie vs. Knicks.
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#60
11-10-2006, 01:58 AM
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Re: Which sport has the biggest luck factor?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] There are a lot fewer real upsets in soccer than one would think, given the potential importance of a single goal. [/ QUOTE ] I think this is likely because the teams are often more mis-matched than we usually see in American sports. [/ QUOTE ] Good point.
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