Iggy's Week 9 CFB picks

[iggymcfly]

Overall YTD record: 89-68-2

Only one pick so far, but it's a good one:

Clemson -5 at Virginia Tech (5 units):
Virginia Tech's got blown out both times they've faced decent opponents this year (GT and BC), and Clemson looks to be the best team in the ACC. Also, Clemson's performances against cupcakes this year mean that they take every game seriously and are very unlikely to experience a letdownb. Any line under 7 here looks to be a huge mistake.

[iggymcfly]

Ohio State/Minnesota under 50 (2 units):

This is another play I like a lot. The 55 points scored in the Iowa game were the only time this year that Ohio State's played a game where the total was over 47. Their defense is going to be the controlling factor this game, not what Minnesota wants to do.

For Minnesota's part, they're coming off a 10-9 win over North Dakota State and lost 28-14 to Michigan when playing their most easily comparable opponent.

[iggymcfly]

POTW: Wake Forest -9.5 at North Carolina (6 units)
Florida State at Maryland +5 (2 units)
Florida State at Maryland +190 (1.5 units)
Texas A&M at Baylor +4.5 (2.5 units)
Washington State -2 at UCLA (2.5 units)
Illinois at Wisconsin -22 (2 units)
Buffalo +37 at Boston College (2 units)
Vanderbilt -10.5 at Duke (1.5 units)
Connecticut at Rutgers -17.5 (1 unit)

[iggymcfly]

Honestly, that Wake Forest line's ridiculous. North Carolina's terrible. They may be worse than Duke. They lost to USF at home by 17, lost to Miami by 20, lost to Va. Tech by 25, and most recently lost to Virginia by 23. I think Wake Forest is better than all of those teams. Sagarin sets the line at 14.5.

[MicroBob]

I like WF and WISC.


Buffalo I'm not so sure about.
Granted, BC hasn't beaten anybody by nearly that many points this year including only beating Maine 22-0.

But Buffalo is just soooooo bad having just lost to a decent Ohio team 42-7 and previously losing to Ball State 55-25.

There may be some value there because BC would have to let up after awhile and might not make it to (or stay at) 37.
But it seems really iffy to me.
Buffalo did only lose to Auburn 38-7 though.

[iggymcfly]

Yeah, BC's the kind of team that just doesn't blow teams out. They haven't scored more than 31 in regulation all year, and the Maine and VT games were the only ones where they outscored their opponents by more than 7. I think they'll build a 24-0 lead at halftime, and then be content to coast in to maybe a 31-3 victory or something. The Auburn game's a good comparison in terms of a slightly better team who also doesn't tend to blow teams out. BC is I think is even less likely to blow teams out than Auburn is.

Also, this is a sandwich game between the big win over Florida State and another crucial game at Wake Forest, and I'd be shocked if Matt Ryan (starting QB with foot injury) plays a down. If it was on the other side of the 35, I wouldn't be too excited about it, but where it is, I think it's a really good play.

[Guyon]

Son of a bitch, the Clemson line moved both times I tried to submit.

[iuschmeltz]

Any thoughts on Purdue/penn St? I initially like Purdue +3 so much that I'm starting to second guess...Any leans?

[iggymcfly]

MyTurn's all over Penn State, so you can check his thread if you want some analysis going against you. Personally, I have almost no lean as Penn State's been so Jekyll and Hyde this year that I really have no idea how they're going to play.

Against Michigan, Ohio State, and Northwestern, they looked like a solid Top 20 team, while against Notre Dame, Minnesota, and Illinois, they looked like they don't belong in a bowl game. If you can find some kind of common thread there, that determines which Penn State team's going to show up against Purdue, then go for it, but I'm just going to pass the game.

[dedmoney]

One other thing about the ND/Navy game, it's a homecoming for Victor Abiamiri (DE) and A Wooden (DB), the will both be pretty fired up to be playing in Baltimore.