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#54
05-16-2006, 10:11 AM
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Re: AA river
I don't know how people are so convinced how a "typical jackass" and "random idiot" would play their range of hands. A few of you say that we would have heard from trips or a flopped straignt on the turn or earlier. I'm not so confident in my ability to infer how either of those players would play such hands, based on the stats and the brief descriptions Bob provided.
Also, I think a real problem with raising the river is that I'm not going to be able to fold if I face a 3-bet. These guys seem capable of 3-betting with a worse 2 pair. Additionally, there is no guarantee that UTG would even call a raise. He actually could be taking a stab at the pot on a broken draw. Against many opponents, raising the river would be quite easy. And I suspect that Bob probably had more of a read than he's communicated, making the raise correct. But based solely on the info provided, I am comfortable going for the overcall. 
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#55
05-16-2006, 05:03 PM
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results
[ QUOTE ]
SB is a typical 40/10/1 idiot. UTG is a random jackass who is 60/20/0.8. Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver) Preflop: Hero is MP with A  , A . UTG calls, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, <font color="red">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="red">1 fold</font>, UTG calls. Flop: (7 SB) T  , 9, 8 <font color="red">(3 players)</font>SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, UTG calls. Turn: (5 BB) 9 <font color="red">(3 players)</font>SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, UTG calls. River: (8 BB) K  <font color="red">(3 players)</font>SB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets</font>, my play? [/ QUOTE ] Raising is the correct play here and I really don't think it is very close, as there is no reason to assume that (a) UTG has me beat because he clearly is an idiot given his stats. He could easily have 2-pair here that he doesn't understand is no good and (b) SB likely has a busted draw that cannot call. Board texture here is extremely important in whether or not considering to go for the overcall. If the flop was T92r or 952r, then MAYBE we could consider going for the overcall. But in this case the board is so draw-heavy that SB very likely is merely drawing and missed. I raised, SB cold-called, and UTG called. UTG had the formidable K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and SB had the stellarly played A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and dragged it.
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#56
05-16-2006, 05:09 PM
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Re: results
[ QUOTE ]
SB had the stellarly played A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and dragged it. [/ QUOTE ] Hehe, justice! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Seriously though, NH. Isnt poker fun?
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#57
05-16-2006, 05:39 PM
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Re: results
[ QUOTE ]
Board texture here is extremely important in whether or not considering to go for the overcall. If the flop was T92r or 952r, then MAYBE we could consider going for the overcall. But in this case the board is so draw-heavy that SB very likely is merely drawing and missed. [/ QUOTE ] It's possible my sense of how loose SB is from the SB vs. a raise is off, but the flop is so coordinated in the playing zone that it's not really that easy to give SB a pure busted straight draw. Yeah, A7 and AJ are possible, but Qx and Jx are typically going to have something else to go with the draw, aren't they? (Well, unless he's defending his SB with any two suited, which he may be.) That said, hearts, of course, are entirely possible. And you would think we might have heard from him already if he flopped top pair or if he turned trips. Anyway, though, I do now think I was wrong in my initial response. I like the river raise. And if you're really fortunate UTG will have the expected Kx, SB will have KJ/KQ, and they'll both pay off.
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