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#51
10-26-2007, 06:33 AM
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Re: hit two pair turn check raise super DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
this is one ugly hand, if you want to make a profit by calling preflop oop with these hands then you have to play better postflop. i think the flop donk-call is a big mistake as is the turn c/r.. by the time the money goes in ur 2 pair is no good, gl hitting the flush on the last one.. [/ QUOTE ] this is terrible analysis by above poster. 1- there is nothing wrong with playing this hand OOP if you are 350BB deep. this is an extremely strong drawing hand. 2- the key to this hand is the flop play. villian two bets for double the pot after you pot lead. what is he trying to do with this bet, and what is he repping? -he is obviously trying to take down the pot on the flop. i dont see him making this bet AA or 99, it would be giving up far too much value unless he thinks you are a chasetard that will call half your stack on a flush draw. -he is most obviously repping AK, you describe him as tight, so i think that A9 is out of his range. on the turn, you have a huge hand, a CR is fine, but when he pushes...hmmmmmmmmm. i think that you are most likely behind. what does he have? best guess would be 44 or A4. when he pushed so hard on the flop, i really cant see him betting like this with AA or 99. so, assuming you have 13 outs on the river and you have to call 4k to win 16k, which almost makes this a coinflip. if you pokerstove this you are maybe getting 5% equity on what he might have, but calling AI on the turn is not -EV. 
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#53
10-26-2007, 07:21 AM
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Re: hit two pair turn check raise super DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] this is one ugly hand, if you want to make a profit by calling preflop oop with these hands then you have to play better postflop. i think the flop donk-call is a big mistake as is the turn c/r.. by the time the money goes in ur 2 pair is no good, gl hitting the flush on the last one.. [/ QUOTE ] this is terrible analysis by above poster. 1- there is nothing wrong with playing this hand OOP if you are 350BB deep. this is an extremely strong drawing hand. 2- the key to this hand is the flop play. villian two bets for double the pot after you pot lead. what is he trying to do with this bet, and what is he repping? -he is obviously trying to take down the pot on the flop. i dont see him making this bet AA or 99, it would be giving up far too much value unless he thinks you are a chasetard that will call half your stack on a flush draw. -he is most obviously repping AK, you describe him as tight, so i think that A9 is out of his range. on the turn, you have a huge hand, a CR is fine, but when he pushes...hmmmmmmmmm. i think that you are most likely behind. what does he have? best guess would be 44 or A4. when he pushed so hard on the flop, i really cant see him betting like this with AA or 99. so, assuming you have 13 outs on the river and you have to call 4k to win 16k, which almost makes this a coinflip. if you pokerstove this you are maybe getting 5% equity on what he might have, but calling AI on the turn is not -EV. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] this is terrible analysis by above poster. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] this is terrible analysis by above poster. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] this is terrible analysis by above poster. [/ QUOTE ] couldnt agree with that sentiment more. -tex [censored] redman bitch
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#60
10-27-2007, 07:07 PM
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Re: hit two pair turn check raise super DEEP
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] you have to call 4k to win 16k, which almost makes this a coinflip. [/ QUOTE ] lol [/ QUOTE ] you dont seem to understand the concept of a coinflip if we have 13 clean outs, we are 29.5% to win on the river. so, if the pot is 11k, and we have to call 3k to win 14k. 3k is 21.4% of 14k. this means if the villian has A4 or 44, we have an expected +EV of 8% of 14k, or 1.12k. if villian has AA, we are 20.5% to win on the river. using the same values from the previous scenario, we have a -EV of .9% of 14k, or -126. so, lets assume villian has AA, 99, or A9, 85% of the time, and villian has 44, A4 10% of the time, and all other hands 5% of the time. -126(.85) + 1120(.1) = -107 + 112 = +5 (note that we are disregarding the anomoly hands in this example as those hands were not relevent to the discussion.) so, like <font color="black"> </font> I SAID <font color="black"> </font> , we are basically coin flipping. do you understand now? really, there are enough moronic clods that post in these forums, please do us a favor and do not become one of them. thank you.
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