Barry Greenstein Bet Agaisnt Eli Elezra Good or bad Odds?

[highhustla]

yeah so Greenstein's odds were fine, as long as he can verify Scotty didn't throw it . . . ?

[David Sklansky]

I'm going to try to find out what happened. My guess is that Eli and Barry settled beore any deals were made.

[arcdog]

sc000t, you're talking about a bad bet there. If I bet on Ivey and take the 10:1 odds each and every year, all he has to do is win a single bracelet every ten years for me to make money. So, you see how taking the other side of that is a bad gamble?

Sure, you'd likely win the bet in a given year, but you are laying waaaaaay too much. Its not even close. I'd say about 2.5 to 1 is as far as you should be willing to go.

[menacing_1]

I remember last year David Grey had a bet at 4:1 with Erik Seidel that John Juanda wouldn't win a bracelet in any event in 2006. The bet was for $100,000. Juanda didn't win, and Grey collected $100k.

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
LIS,

I was talking about 10:1 for a SINGLE YEAR at WSOP for ivey/dn. BUT TBH, I think 5 years for Ivey OR DN to win a a WSOP event would still maaaaaaaaaaaaybe be a bad bet. I know the guys are good. And I know they play alot of events, and easier ones to win at that. Its much easier to win a stud8/ horse mtt when its limit and there isn't a billion people playing. But to be the number one player out of these fields is still a long shot regardless of skill.

Basically, all things equal in the 5 years, thats giving 2:1 on any single year at one of them pulling in a bracelet. I would gladly bet $1, $10, $100, $1,000 or $10,000 on any given person winning a brecelet in a single year @ 2:1.


EDIT: Also, TS makes a good point. Something that I didnt know. About Eli NOT playing many events, I was thinking he would play alot, just for the reason that he likes to play poker, has yet to win a wsop and has enough time and money on his hand to play all these events. Plus, the 50k horse event taking a so many days to finish (assuming he is in it past the first or second day) would kill his chances. ON TOP OF ALL THIS THO, 2:1 is a great deal for barry....let alot 10:1. AND barry has got to have better reasoning when it comes to making +EV prop bets on this sort of thing. amIright?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL you suck at gambling. 10:1 on him winning a bracelet this year is roughly analogous to "do you think he will win a bracelet in the next 10 years?" Its not exactly the same, but your next statement about how "heck he might not even win one in the next five years".....hahahahaha.

[Rekwob]

whats to stop barry giving scotty financial incentive to win when they get heads up as well? they're not idiots, this will have come up and be pretty much a non issue

[LISceneSucks]

[ QUOTE ]
lol

Is Scotty really that tight for money that he'd make a deal here? you see this guy bust out of a tournament, all he wants is to win it looks like. I know money is important, but I'd think with the top superstars, it becomes more about the bracelts.

[/ QUOTE ]
scotty said in an inverview that he hasnt played a cash game in 2 years...also...all his income is coming from the cherokee casino in tulsa...they put him in every tournament so his fees are covered...he doesnt seem to have that much money so im sure if eli offered him 100-200K he would take it...the bracelet is going to do much for his popularity as he is already as known as most players

[KSOT]

Just as long as Sean Sheikhan never wins a bracelet...

[PokrLikeItsProse]

Isn't the story that Larry Flynt got banned from the WSOP back in the day because he tried to buy off his opponents with a few tables left in order to win a prop bet with Doyle Brunson on whether or not he would win a bracelet? Or do I misremember?

[Ship Ship McGipp]

you guys kjnow eli is bad right