College v. Pro - Page 6

prohornblower · #51 07-24-2006, 07:41 PM

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Houston's O-line would wear down USC's defensive front and by the end of the game the Texans would be running at will.

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And at the other end, Lienert would be pressured on almost every snap. His only real choice would be look one receiver, then dump to Bush, who would just be getting hammered by linebackers all game long.

There would be so many changes of possession, that I think the disparity could be more like 4 touchdowns or so. If USC were getting a few first downs each possession, the Texans wouldn't have as many opportunities to score and widen the gap.

USC's only real hope would be not to go for the WIN, but to manage the clock and keep from LOSING by too many points. This would make the game look a lot closer than it really is.

MacGuyV · #52 07-24-2006, 07:48 PM

I can't even believe this thread is so long. I'm scared to read the replies.

I think of it this way: how many players on Texas/USC would be good enough to start on Houston right now? Even if there are a handful (and there are fewer than you probably think) they are going to be marginal upgrades at their position and will be greatly outnumbered by the rest of the Texas/USC starters who wouldn't even be good enough to make the Texans team.

JackWhite · #53 07-25-2006, 12:44 PM

tdarko, I have to leave town, so here are the final replies from my e-mails.

Texans -35 (right on your number)
Texans -24
Texans -22
Texans -21
Texans -21
Texans -16-17
Texans -10
Texans -6.5
USC -3 or 4
USC -6

Take that for what its worth, simply the opinion of several professional football writers.

tdarko · #54 07-25-2006, 01:05 PM

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Texans -35 (right on your number)
Texans -24
Texans -22
Texans -21
Texans -21
Texans -16-17
Texans -10
Texans -6.5
USC -3 or 4
USC -6

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Here is the problem with coming up with lines to try and reason this debate, just as teams at -20+ etc. have won many times, think about how many times the other team covers and the game is a wash. Lines don't mean anything to me in this, all it basically does is give me a heads-up to a few sports writers to be weary of the next time I come across their articles.

You have talked about cohesiveness as if college teams are the only ones that benefit from this and that NFL teams simply do not play together. Nolan Dolla's response about that old game doesn't make since to me since it was an all-star team vs. a regular team right? Thus the cohesive advantage. I may have that wrong since I didn't go back and re-read but that is what I remember of his writing.

I am going out of town as well and have to leave soon which is why this post is short but these sports writers proved absolutely nothing to me other than the fact that I won't be listening to them in the future. What I would actually find funny is if we went position by position, Texans vs. Texas or USC and stacked up each player against each other. Quickness, strength, power, skill, and experience all weighted equally. Have their resumes (draft status or college credentials) on the table. I am pretty sure you would find that after about 10 players (that may be lenient) you will find that these college athletes credentials are going to start reading, "he has a 3.2 as a Biology major!"

~td

damaniac · #55 07-25-2006, 01:08 PM

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tdarko, I have to leave town, so here are the final replies from my e-mails.

Texans -35 (right on your number)
Texans -24
Texans -22
Texans -21
Texans -21
Texans -16-17
Texans -10
Texans -6.5
USC -3 or 4
USC -6

Take that for what its worth, simply the opinion of several professional football writers.

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Not to be entirely dismissive of this or anything (and I know you said "take it FWIW"), but there are PLENTY of sportswriters who don't know their head from their rear. Remember, many of these guys probably think a team on a losing streak is "due" for a win and other such nonsense that defies all logic. I'm just sayin'.

ThaSaltCracka · #56 07-25-2006, 02:33 PM

I find it amusing that you guys are totally dismissing their opinions simply because they are completely different from your own.

bernie · #57 07-25-2006, 05:24 PM

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I find it amusing that you guys are totally dismissing their opinions simply because they are completely different from your own.

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I think tdarko is dead on on this one and explained it pretty well as to why.

As far as sportswriters predictions/analysis, I've seen many people write strategy for poker magazines that are clueless.

Anyone who thinks USC would be a favorite over the Texans is highly questionable, imo. But then, these are probably the same type of idiots that were crowning USC the NC last year prior to the game. Along with buying in to them playing every other great NC team like that ridiculous ESPN series tried to portray.

b

ThaSaltCracka · #58 07-25-2006, 06:00 PM

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I think tdarko is dead on on this one and explained it pretty well as to why.

[/ QUOTE ] I am not here to argue who in this thread is more right or wrong, but I think the reasoning behind dismissing these writers opinions to be so ridiculous. "They disagree with me, they are clearly morons". Seems incredibly dumb to me.

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Anyone who thinks USC would be a favorite over the Texans is highly questionable, imo.

[/ QUOTE ] I would agree, but whats so suspect about some of the spreads in the 15-20 range?

bernie · #59 07-25-2006, 06:59 PM

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I think tdarko is dead on on this one and explained it pretty well as to why.

[/ QUOTE ] I am not here to argue who in this thread is more right or wrong, but I think the reasoning behind dismissing these writers opinions to be so ridiculous. "They disagree with me, they are clearly morons". Seems incredibly dumb to me.

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True, but those writers also didn't present their reasoning 'why' they think this. Which limits their credibility for their prediction. I'd reeeeaaaallly like to hear their reasoning on this one.

Anyone can just spout a number and not have anything to back it up.(not necesarily their fault as they likely weren't asked, however, if one is going to say USC, it should be implied that reasoning should be forthcoming on such an outrageous prediction)

I think Tdarko has made a pretty solid case and countered all rebuttles.

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Anyone who thinks USC would be a favorite over the Texans is highly questionable, imo.

[/ QUOTE ] I would agree, but whats so suspect about some of the spreads in the 15-20 range?

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I'm not worrying about the spreads in the 15-20 range. Personally, I think it'd be a bit higher.

Imo, anyone that spouts that USC is favored is the same type that thinks they want fewer players to see the flop against their AA. Their thinking is defintely suspect.

b

PokerFink · #60 07-25-2006, 08:11 PM

1) Using a point spread to figure out how much better the Texans are over the Trojans is silly because a point spread does NOT tell us the actual difference between the teams. A point spread is based on what the general public thinks in order to generate equal betting on both sides, insuring that the sports book will win. As one of the writers stated, the general public underestimates the actual difference between a college and pro team. Therefore, if USC played the Texans, the betting line would be much smaller than what it should be, because there are lots of people who truely believe that USC could win and would bet on USC +10. The true point difference is going to be significantly higher.

2) Consider how badly NFL rookies suck. There are only a handful of players each year that can really contribute in their first NFL year. USC has only a few players who are NFL-ready right now. Their roster is full of players who are not ready to play in the NFL, as well as players who will NEVER play in the NFL. Think about that. NFL players against players who will never even get invited to an NFL training camp! USC's special teams will be awful against the NFL players. Imagine if USC loses a starter during the game and have to use a backup? The poor kid would get slaughtered.

3) While the Texans have a number of players who are average or below-average NFL players, they have some stars as well. Andre Johnson was a monster reciever in college. Now he's older, bigger, faster, and used to playing against NFL corners. Imagine how wide open he would be against a college corner back? It would be a joke. Young NFL quarterbacks comment often about how recievers in the NFL just don't get open the way they do in college. Now you give David Carr, who was once an elite college QB, a wide open Andre Johnson running through USC's secondary. LOL. Unstoppable.

4) Finally, while the Texans have a very below average NFL line, their line will still be bigger, stronger, faster, tougher and more talented than USC's line. The Texans will totally domiante the line of scrimmage. No big running lanes for Reggie Bush. No time for Matt Lienart. All day for David Carr to throw the ball.

Every single USC player, with the possible exceptions of Winston Justice and Reggie Bush, are inferior to their counterpart on the Texans. In most cases, that difference is going to be massive. It would be a slaughter. Anyone who thinks otherwise is really underestimating the difference between college athletes and professional athletes.