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#52
06-02-2006, 04:22 PM
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Re: $60 - AKo - The Return of the Creature\'s Ghost in 3D
[ QUOTE ]
Guys, this is a call even if the opponent SHOWS YOU his A5. If you fold, ICM says you have 5.32% equity in the prize pool. If you push and win, you'd have a 18.80% equity. Hence, you need to win 28.3% (.532/.1880) of the time here to break even. <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1762770 pokenum -h ac ks - ah 5h -- ad 5s tc Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s Tc Ad cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV Ks Ac 283 28.59 699 70.61 8 0.81 0.290 Ah 5h 699 70.61 283 28.59 8 0.81 0.710</pre><hr /> The responses in this thread are horrible. You're ahead here at least 10% of the time in a $60 too - that's not insignificant. [/ QUOTE ] UMTerp: Good post. However: 1) We are drawing to runner runner against a set, our equity is much lower than 28.6% 2) That's so close that it's basically EV 0 (same as a fold) 3) You are not ahead 10% of the time in a $60... if he had shoved maybe, but no one limps UTG and check-min-3bets a large flop raise with less than two pair! 
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#53
06-02-2006, 04:51 PM
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Re: $60 - AKo - The Return of the Creature\'s Ghost in 3D
[ QUOTE ]
3) You are not ahead 10% of the time in a $60... if he had shoved maybe, but no one limps UTG and check-min-3bets a large flop raise with less than two pair! [/ QUOTE ] I've been arguing that a fold is reasonable but I would have to say that you are ahead at least 10% of the time here, probably more like 20% (10% bluff, 10% retard). But he'll have redraws of course so that's not 100% money.
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#54
06-02-2006, 04:51 PM
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Re: $60 - AKo - The Return of the Creature\'s Ghost in 3D
[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com UTG (t1430) UTG+1 (t1470) MP1 (t3070) MP2 (t1480) CO (t1500) Hero (t1200) SB (t1760) BB (t1590) Preflop: Hero is in Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG calls t30, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises to t120</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Hero calls t120, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, BB calls t90, UTG calls t90 Flop: (t495) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players) BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">MP1 bets t60</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t420</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to t780</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, Hero? Rounding out the great suzzer AK horror trilogy. I think we've established that I suck with this hand early (and late too). All alternative lines appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] Hi! FWIW: With no reads, I would have raised the flop to t180 and then would have folded to any reraise (screaming: "SET"!!!) from UTG or BB. Have a great day! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#55
06-02-2006, 04:55 PM
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Re: $60 - AKo - The Return of the Creature\'s Ghost in 3D
So many posters here are so full of themselves. Anyone who disagrees with them clearly are morons and terrible players.
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#57
06-02-2006, 05:01 PM
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Re: $60 - AKo - The Return of the Creature\'s Ghost in 3D
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So many posters here are so right. Anyone who disagrees with wiggs73 are morons and terrible players. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] yes
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#59
06-02-2006, 05:53 PM
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Re: $60 - AKo - The Return of the Creature\'s Ghost in 3D
[ QUOTE ]
So many posters here are so full of themselves. Anyone who disagrees with them clearly are morons and terrible players. [/ QUOTE ] I really do not care what anyone thinks about my playing abilities. I just want to learn more about SNG's and help others learn when I can. Weighing different opinions...even bad ones...can sometimes be helpful, for many reasons. For instance, a bad one to consider (?): What about folding to the 4 bet BEFORE the flop? AKo is, for the most part, still a drawing hand. If we assume the 4 bet is sensible, what could he/she have? AKs? AQs? AJs? AA? KK? QQ? JJ? TT? 99? 88? 77? If one of those, assuming this could go to a one on one showdown, are we behind? It is still early and the cards will not remember we folded AKo! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] or [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ?
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#60
06-02-2006, 05:58 PM
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Re: $60 - AKo - The Return of the Creature\'s Ghost in 3D
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So many posters here are so full of themselves. Anyone who disagrees with them clearly are morons and terrible players. [/ QUOTE ] I really do not care what anyone thinks about my playing abilities. I just want to learn more about SNG's and help others learn when I can. Weighing different opinions...even bad ones...can sometimes be helpful, for many reasons. For instance, a bad one to consider (?): What about folding to the 4 bet BEFORE the flop? AKo is, for the most part, still a drawing hand. If we assume the 4 bet is sensible, what could he/she have? AKs? AQs? AJs? AA? KK? QQ? JJ? TT? 99? 77? If one of those, assuming this could go to a showdown, are we behind? It is still early and the cards will not remember we folded AKo! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] or [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ? [/ QUOTE ] WooT?
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