15/30 AK

[7stud]

Continuing with my analysis:

In the bad case scenario considered above, the 14% equity means it's 7:1 against winning the pot. That means a raise needs to be called by 7 opponents for it to be for value. So right away we know that even if all three opponents call our 1bb raise, we are 4bb short of a value raise. Obviously, if all three opponents call, we won't have increased our winning chances and our raise will be a loser, so that would be a bad result.

But what if the raise scares your opponents to the core and two of them fold. That means your raise will only be called by one lone opponent, which in turn means you will be 6bb short of the 7:1 you need for a value raise. But, your winning chances will go up because of the folds. How much do they need to go up to make up the 6bb your raise finds itself deficient? Your increase in winning chances multiplied by the pot size needs to be more than the 6bb you are losing on your raise:

^winning chances x pot size = 6bb

or rearranging:

^winning chances = 6bb / pot size

At this point, I'm not really sure which bets to include in the pot size. It's 9bb when it gets to you on the turn. If you raise, you have to put in 2bb, and let's say your lone opponent has to put in an additional 2bb to call, making the total pot 13bb. So, I think I would analyze it like this: your 1bb raise cost you 6bb in value, but it gave you a better chance of winning 13bb - (your 1bb raise) = 12bb. So,

^winning chances = 6bb / 12bb = 50%

Therefore, that should leave you wondering whether even if two people will fold to your raise, will that really increase your winning chances by over 50%--which is necessary to make up the 6bb a raise will be deficient in value?

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the way the hand was played, I'm not too concerned about a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
What in the play of the hand leads you to that conclusion?

[ QUOTE ]
Why would he bet into the PFR on the flop with a flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]
Because of the principle: "if you are going to call a bet, it is better to bet yourself"? What if the BB held 10d9d? That would mean he had 15 outs = about 60% equity. 8d7d? 9 outs = roughly 36% equity.


[/ QUOTE ]

You contradict yourself. With Td9d, a thinking player would much rather check-raise than bet into the PFR, because that gets the most money into the pot with a monster hand. And villain would almost certainly 3-bet on the flop with a hand like that, rather than stop-and-go.

Also, If villain had bet a flush draw, he'd probably prefer to check-raise Hero, because that collects him the most bets on the turn; if Hero raises his turn bet, this likely drives out his other customers, which is the last result anyone with a made flush would want here.

[busted]

Hey 7stud,

I've enjoyed your posts and learned a lot from them. You're a lot better at math than I am.

Do you have any recommendations for my poker library? The only books I have are:
Miller, SSHE
Sklansky, the original HE book
Sklansky, ToP
Jones, WLLHE
Hilger, Internet Texas HE
Yao, Weighing the Odds in HE

Many thanks

[busted]

OK, someone suggested that I get Sklansky's HE for Advanced Players. I picked up a copy, but it looks pretty formidable.

Any other suggestions?

TIA

[Jake (The Snake)]

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