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#51
09-06-2007, 07:45 PM
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Re: It\'s been fun
He wanted the river line discussed as taken - what's wrong with that? Yes, I think the pre-flop->flop is pretty garbage with a hand like 99 on several different levels - but he already put in his OP that that's not what this debate is about.
Ok so the line taken? I think it's an obvious call. I don't think the two mantras you're thinking about is the only factors that are relevant. The fact is, with that board and action a lot of marginal hands are sure to check behind. Hands that would have paid off a bet but wouldn't bet the river if you check to them. Hands like 55-88, AK, Ax that hit the low brick, etc. Those are the subset of hands that really make the difference here. Because you check raised the turn, you put these type of hands in suspicious mode and they just want to get to SD as cheap as possible. There is some merits for checking the river - because hands that beat the board (and consequently, you) big time would of course bet if you check to them, and hands that barely beat you will likely only call if you bet because you got them scared with a strong turn play. Yes it's a strange turn play, but it *is* strong. How many of you guys automatically get thrown to showdown mode with a weak Q or decent J here? I bet a lot of you do. But overall, I still think the subset of hands that check behind where you would have beat is greater than hands that are monsters on that board. So yeah, I think river is obvious bet given this line. Now let me reiterate that I think the PF->Flop line was atrocious and unless you know something the collectively 2p2 community doesn't, I hope this is a kind of line you take <20% of the time. Oh and on the other hand, I think it's funny that you take it so seriously when: a) You obviously already made up your mind about the merits of your preflop, flop, and turn play. and b) Fully anticipated you'd be bashed for it or you wouldn't have the disclaimer in the OP. Chill out, no need to get too worked up over a discussion thread. ~andy 
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#52
09-06-2007, 07:56 PM
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Re: It\'s been fun
good post andy
It seems to me like he can bet-fold this river given his read so I think that there is even less merit to checking. The best reason for checking is hoping the opponent will freeze up with a better hand which could happen fairly often. So yeah, i actually think pf, flop, turn, and river were misplayed. Given the limited number of decisions per street in lhe this is an accomplishment.
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#53
09-06-2007, 10:14 PM
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Re: It\'s been fun
I guess you won't be around to read this, but I don't understand what all the fuss is about. I'm sure we all know players who are gonna raise this flop with smaller pairs, AK, AT, or any kind of draw and then fire again on the turn just to be convincing (and make a bet when they hit).
The point being is that the c/r on the turn might be very appropriate, especially if it gets the BB to fold a jack for two cold. I'm sure every good player here has made this play. Those who never have, are missing opportunities and can't be very good. So if we give the OP credit for knowing his opponent, what's the big deal?
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#55
09-06-2007, 10:21 PM
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Re: It\'s been fun
[ QUOTE ]
I guess you won't be around to read this, but I don't understand what all the fuss is about. I'm sure we all know players who are gonna raise this flop with smaller pairs, AK, AT, or any kind of draw and then fire again on the turn just to be convincing (and make a bet when they hit). The point being is that the c/r on the turn might be very appropriate, especially if it gets the BB to fold a jack for two cold. I'm sure every good player here has made this play. Those who never have, are missing opportunities and can't be very good. So if we give the OP credit for knowing his opponent, what's the big deal? [/ QUOTE ] what do you think the chances are a good player bets the turn with a hand that doesn't beat 99 after the flop action here? ~90%, right? I was going to say 88%ish personally.
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#56
09-06-2007, 10:43 PM
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Re: It\'s been fun
If his read on the guy is that he will autobet the turn when checked to (even after being checkraised on the flop and the pot is 3 way), and that he will always raise this flop with AK, AT, KT, then I think this is a sweet play.
Since OP is asking specifically about the river - this decision is super easy, since for the play to be correct up to this point we already know what villian has.
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#57
09-06-2007, 11:25 PM
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Re: It\'s been fun
<font color="blue">If his read on the guy is that he will autobet the turn when checked to (even after being checkraised on the flop and the pot is 3 way), </font>
...And he wasn't even c/r'd on the flop. Villain was simply bet into and he raised. So he can be expected to bet again if he's super aggro.
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#58
09-06-2007, 11:35 PM
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Re: It\'s been fun
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I guess you won't be around to read this, but I don't understand what all the fuss is about. I'm sure we all know players who are gonna raise this flop with smaller pairs, AK, AT, or any kind of draw and then fire again on the turn just to be convincing (and make a bet when they hit). The point being is that the c/r on the turn might be very appropriate, especially if it gets the BB to fold a jack for two cold. I'm sure every good player here has made this play. Those who never have, are missing opportunities and can't be very good. So if we give the OP credit for knowing his opponent, what's the big deal? [/ QUOTE ] what do you think the chances are a good player bets the turn with a hand that doesn't beat 99 after the flop action here? ~90%, right? I was going to say 88%ish personally. [/ QUOTE ] Because this is the high limit forum, I tend to give posters the benefit of the doubt when it comes to a personalized read of this sort. I don't think I'd bet again with a hand that couldn't beat nines, unless I knew OP to be the type that would lead the flop with 99 (and might fold to a turn bet). OP might realize this, and... See what I mean? We can't really know, cuz we weren't there and don't know the button or any of the history between these two. We DO know that it doesn't look like the BB has much and could easily be drawing. So it might be a fight to get HU with him. So I'm just saying that when I read about hands in the H/L forum, I take for granted that there's a method to what seems to be OP's madness, and that he's not just stinking up the hand with fishy play that we might expect from a mid or lower limit player.
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#59
09-06-2007, 11:42 PM
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Re: It\'s been fun
lestat, do you realize how certain 90% is? tell me the last time you were able to get multiple bets in as a 90% favorite and you knew it? oh wait, i remember, you play the game on feel. well, then you shouldnt be playing limit. play nl bc if you feel so fckn good about hands then you can just wait until you have a fckn incredible feel from the guy (im sure you like that) and then you can take a guys whole stack as a 90% fav which is a lot of money at 5/10 10/25 and 25/50. hell, you dont even have to use pokerstove.
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