$5/$10 Set River Decision (Hand reading related)

[NYWalker]

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NYwalker,
As for the actual hand. One thing I see in nearly every thread you start is Link . I do not mean this as an insult but you are always so certain and manage to narrow down someones hand range into such a tiny portion that almost always seems to be right. So either your playing the most predictable players ever, you are the best hand reader in the world, or you have a confirmation bias.

On to the actual hand.

PF standard

Flop This is a very dry board so raising and calling are both fine. The thing is you want to play for stacks here for sure. You basically have the nuts and tons of worse hands will stack off. In this spot I would either call or but in a raise big enough that I could get bet the turn and then shove the river.

Turn Once you minraise and he calls the pot is roughly 550
and you have 1750 behind. You have a very strong hand and want to get it in. The described villain seems very bad and will call down with a wide range. Now if you raised a little bigger on the flop to 250 or 300 you could bet turn and bet river and get all in. But since you made such a small raise to get all in you need to do one of three things.
1. Bet almost full pot on the turn and shove river
2. Bet smaller on the turn like 300-400 and then overbet shove river or full pot river.
3. Induce a stupid bluff which wont happen as often as you would like to think.

River
Once you get here checking behind is the absolute worse decision you can make. You have the best hand like 95% of the time its a clear bet. Given your bet sizing on previous streets your stuck in a pretty tricky spot. I'd either bet around 800 and hope he calls with whatever stupid hand he has or try and induce a bluff by betting small which honestly is a perfectly reasonable line.

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Eagles,

Thank you for the analysis.

I agree with you in most things you said about this hand, except, I'm not sure if he can call a turn bet $500 after we raise the flop to $300. So, basically, IMO, our choice is (after he put in $100 on the flop) we extract one chunk ($200 more) vs two chunks ($100+$300 more). Our second option may improves his hand on the turn, keep him going to the river. I think my option gets paid by wider ranges, but sometimes don't get full value from specific hands.

When posting this hand, I was really hoping someone can point out villain's range and how much is the limit on each street (combined with all streets) we can extract - when people call the flop for draw or second pp/tpnk, they normally think about how much cost them at the turn... most important, the river bet amount. (river check behind is standard live with a scared card hits IMO)

As for river bet, I think $650 (close half of my remaining stk) at the river is a bad choice which basically tells villain "I have you and I'm not folding to a push". But, for those just criticize the flop without explanation, to me, they only have a *simple, isolated* flop decision, they don't have plan for each street and don't think what hands can stay, what hands will fold... You are the first one give so detailed analysis. thanks


(I apologize for my previous post, because I didn't see this one when replying to you. Hope we can meet live and I'm sure you are a nice guy. Good luck to you online and live!)

[rand]

NY

i think there are lots of things going on here that everyone, including myself ignored the first time through... if certain variables are right then i could see it being the case that you played this hand well

its just that most people discount these outcomes almsot completely bc it is very rare that all the stars are aligned

for 1. its live...thats huge
2. villain is loose aggressive and apparently hes capable of huge stone cold bluffs
3. it must be that case that a min raise from you can be something that is folding to a river shove

i think 3 is where this whole thing breaks down...your line only gets the max value if villain is going to major spew and OOP float your turn double barrel

i think if villain is going to get this creative a better line (more consistent with a his range and the described player) is a small but normal flop raise followed by a check and then you raise his river bluff

villain has to put you on complete air or think that you are value betting A7 the whole way for his line to be good

i would argue that none of these hands are in your range given your bet sizing so your line was only good bc villain WAY WAY WAY WAY MESSED UP HIS HAND-READING

i think that sums up most peoples problems with this line
(once again if you know villain will make this mistake then gj)

as for the river decision I snappy snap call thinking that he turned something with moderate show down value into a bluff

[NYWalker]

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NYW:

I don't like your flop min raise. Every dollar you bet on the flop is like betting three dollars since you can bet progressively more in relation to the pot size on the turn and river. When you have a set, it's important to figure out a gameplan to get all the chips in the middle by the river. In otherwords, on the flop, develop a plan for how you can get all the chips in. The easiest and usual course for getting this done is to get as many chips in on the flop as possible. This will help ensure that by the river you'll get all the chips in.


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Agree. One of my favorite 2+2books is Miller's NL book in which he specifically described 2-chunk vs 3-chunk option to extract all the money into the pot in live cash games when we are this deep (over 200BBs) with nuts.

But I think your plan lack of reading about villain. He's loose, aggressive. But he's not putting chips into small pot HU on dry board. As played, he has no position on us. Since he's loose, I don't give him any credit about his hands. His hand, on the flop, no OP; on the turn, no draw... his responses to our raise/bet confirmed this. I don't force anyone to think in my way, but I want to know what's the best amount we can raise on the flop without alarming him also he can put more chips on the turn, river assume no improved..

Do I hear he'd call $300 on the flop and he will call $500 - $550 on the turn? then I guess he would call $400 on the river? I assume this agreed by those who think flop mini-raise is bad.

[rand]

id raise to 300 or 350 and bet the same amount on the turn

[NYWalker]

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NY
i think if villain is going to get this creative a better line (more consistent with a his range and the described player) is a small but normal flop raise followed by a check and then you raise his river bluff


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I like this one too. In fact, I used to play this line a lot until some decent 2+2pers pointed out I don't get full value of the nuts.

[NYWalker]

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id raise to 300 or 350 and bet the same amount on the turn

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OK. Since a lot of guys say this, I'll try to increase the size of flop value bet in the next few weeks and see if villain's come along with me.