Big fold with top pair and nfd

[ASPoker8]

I play it the same

Call flop
Fold turn, although its an annoying fold

[Mat Cauthon]

Since there are a lot of good arguments here for both sides and still no conclusion, I decided to make some calculations. Hopefully they will help a little.

If he always has a set and pays off when we hit, and SB always folds:

We miss
-$66*36/44 = -$54

We hit
$259*8/44 = $47

Then we lose $8.


He might also have combo-draws. T8, T7, 87, 75, 54, Q9, J9, T9, 98, 97; 10 combinations. The sets are 9 combinations.
He doesn't play all of them like this preflop, flop and turn. Lets take the 2 most probable ones, T9 and 98, and say he plays them like this. Lets also assume he never bluffs them, and stacks off on any heart.

We miss
-$66*36/44 = -$54
-$54*9/11 = -$44

We hit
$259*8/44 = $47
$47*9/11 = $38.5

He hits
-$66*5/44 = -$7.5
-$7.5*2/11 = -$1.4

Both miss
$151*32/44 = $109.8
$109.8*2/11 = $20

Both hits
$259*7/44 = $41.2
$41.2*2/11 = $7.5

$38.5+$20+$7.5-$44-$1.4 = $20.6

In that case we win $20

Using the same calculations, and asuming he only plays T9 like this, nets us $8.


Using all of the calculations above and assuming he folds his set when we hit, our net is -$27.5 $4.5 -$9.5 respectively. And if he folds it half of the time: -$18 $12.5 -$1.


I don't think he can fold a set very often, and I think he plays some of his combo-draws like this, so I think it's a call. But sitting at the table, I could have a different/better read, and it could very well be a fold.
If you think it's really close, you might want to fold, since it's a high variance play.

[McBeef]

if bb was neilso id fold too

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
bugger off. I don't think its comparible with a CO raise either, its still EP. preflop your equity with A3s against 4 random hands is 24.8%. Add in your position and this is clearly a -EV play with huge variance.

aislephive show me your Ace rag stats EP. If they're green I'll get my coat.

If we must play this on the flop then raise and commit to the hand. Your only a serious dog to a set. Your raising UTG with this hand for exactly this scenario right?
That turn card is a bonus and sickener for the villain. It was one of your outs that you should have raised with on the flop.
You raised UTG so represent an UTG holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is over about 100k hands, majority is 200nl with about 20k hands of 400nl / 100nl each in there. The filter is set for 5-6 handed, 2-3 positions off the button, and not in the blinds, with A2s-A7s selected. So every hand where I was UTG or UTG+1 6 handed or UTG 5 handed is included in this and that's it.

[Shizzle12345]

mine are in the red, but thats because i lost some pretty sick pots with em where my top 2 got coolered or sucked out on. But besides that i dont like to play them EP anymore unless table is juicy.

[primate]

Ok fair play tae you however the sample size is still small. I for sure dont raise this EP

[ASPoker8]

wtf @ not raising AXs in any position?

lollll

[jc1418]

i fold A6s-A9s alot in EP

[ASPoker8]

[ QUOTE ]
i fold A6s-A9s alot in EP

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats really bad imo

[tufat23]

wtf, why fold turn