Calculating LSU's Odds to win National Title

[Performify]

I'll end the speculation. Good eye, it is.

-P

[NajdorfDefense]

ArizSt's odds just got a lot better. Oregon looks like a loss, we know 2 B12 teams in front of them must lose, wins over USC and Zona now would look really good at year-end, that would likely leapfrog them over Ohio [who may lose on Sat anyway] and as originally stated by OP, LSU has 3 more games including likely UGa in my mind, and WVa would be leapfrogged by the pollsters and 'puters if AzzuSt wins out.

[Post-Oak]

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ArizSt's odds just got a lot better. Oregon looks like a loss, we know 2 B12 teams in front of them must lose, wins over USC and Zona now would look really good at year-end, that would likely leapfrog them over Ohio [who may lose on Sat anyway] and as originally stated by OP, LSU has 3 more games including likely UGa in my mind, and WVa would be leapfrogged by the pollsters and 'puters if AzzuSt wins out.

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You're making a couple of bad assumptions here. I don't see any way that Az St can leap frog an 11-1 WVU. I am also pretty sure they can't pass an 11-1 Ohio St.

Also, Az St has a couple of tough games left. They are underdogs against USC at home, and then have to play at Arizona. Most likely, they will lose again this season.

You also point out that they would have to pass the Big 12 teams. The problem is that those 3 teams have a lot of games left against each other. It is hard for all 3 of them to blow it.

Arizona State does have a chance to reach the BCS title game, but it's gonna take a perfect storm. Oregon's loss is just step 1.

[iggymcfly]

ASU doesn't have to pass all 3 Big XII teams, just two of them and it looks like they will. If they beat USC 20-17 or something, I don't think they can pass WVU or OSU, but I think a blowout gives them a great shot. Also, West Virginia and Ohio State both have very tough games this week. I think the Mountaineers are a way bigger favorite than they should be against Cincy and could easily pick up their second loss this Saturday. Of course, this is all moot if LSU finishes 12-1.

[Post-Oak]

WSEX already put up their new odds.

For some bizarre reason, they opened LSU up at -117 (+100 to bet against them). I have already bet this down to +108/-127 (by shorting them).

-127 is still massively +EV. The idea that Oregon losing would help LSU this much is ludicrous. LSU still has to win 3 games (one of which could be UGA in Atlanta) before they even reach the title game!

Oklahoma also jumped up to +270/-335. I shorted them too. They're +316/-400 now.

-400 is +EV. They've got to win @ Tex Tech (73% according to Pinny), vs Oklahoma State (90%), the Big 12 championship in San Antonio, and then the BCS title game!

Where the hell are they getting these odds? It's now becoming possible for a 2 loss team to make it, but not if that team is Oklahoma!

One bad thing is that I honestly think that other online sites steal their odds off of WSEX (after waiting a day or so), so I hate to bet them right away when the limits are effectively so low. I don't like to wait though when the odds are so outrageous.

[Post-Oak]

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ASU doesn't have to pass all 3 Big XII teams, just two of them and it looks like they will. If they beat USC 20-17 or something, I don't think they can pass WVU or OSU, but I think a blowout gives them a great shot. Also, West Virginia and Ohio State both have very tough games this week. I think the Mountaineers are a way bigger favorite than they should be against Cincy and could easily pick up their second loss this Saturday. Of course, this is all moot if LSU finishes 12-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, let's say that they pass 2 Big 12 teams. That means they have to pass LSU, WVU and Ohio State. Otherwise, they can't make the title game.

To do that, all of those teams need to lose in addition to Az State winning out.

Using my estimates...

1. Chance LSU loses 52%
2. Chance WVU loses 47%
3. Chance Ohio State loses 38%
4. Chance Az State wins out 31%

You see the problem here?

Of course, it is possible that all 3 of those Big 12 teams blow it, but I am not even gonna open that can of worms.

[MyTurn2Raise]

ASU might leapfrog tOSU without them losing

[noseeds99]

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You said it was 'pretty funny' that I thought ASU was better than any of the 3 B12 teams ranked ahead of them:
BCS Standings -
#3 Kansas
#4 Okla
#5 Missou
...

#8 ASU

I'm offering you any of 3 teams, ALL ranked ahead of ASU that will likely play ASU in the bowl game, ASU has an injured QB, on a neutral field, at PICK, and you don't want the action.

That's completely fine, just admit your earlier statement was wrong and you're not willing back it up. Rather than just say "No thanks, nice offer," you moved the goalposts.

For illogical trash talk, Sporting Events is
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<------thataway

[/ QUOTE ]


i will take this bet for max 1k if still on the table

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
ASU doesn't have to pass all 3 Big XII teams, just two of them and it looks like they will....Of course, this is all moot if LSU finishes 12-1.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not moot if LSU plays ASU, just unlikely. Missou beats Okla 14-12 and ASU beats USC and Zona big? ASU is already ahead in all 6 computer polls. Pollsters moved up Fla last year ahead of inferior teams, ASU's only loss is AT Oregon.

I'll take my 55-1 odds on ASU right now. Agree LSU odds are still silly. Obv likeliest scenario would be Okla v ASU if ASU makes it. They are ahead of Ohio and WV in almost all puter polls and beating a top 15 and top 30 team will only help them. Just can't see the pollsters leave out Pac-10 champ with 1 loss at #2 Oregon with Dixon. ASU *could* certainly leapfrog Okla as well with superior play.
Okla - loss at Colo, win Miss home, win Miss neutral #52SoS, lowest 'puter ranking of top contenders save WVu
ASU - beat Colo, beat Cal home, loss Oregon, beat USC, #27 SoS, 4th in puters, 3rd after tonite behind Kansas.

Of course LSU, Ohio, WVu, ASU, Kansas, Okla, USC, Fla, UGa, VTech, will all lose again and we can watch a Missou and Virginia slugfest for the Nat'l title.

[Post-Oak]

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ASU might leapfrog tOSU without them losing

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That is possible. I consider it more likely that they would not leapfrog an 11-1 Ohio State though.