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#51
09-11-2007, 01:59 AM
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Re: 300/600 (WARNING: limit hold\'em)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] why do you people raise in limit? you know your hand has a chance in hell of ever holding up against the 45,000 callers [/ QUOTE ] If you are lucky enough to be in a limit game where you expect 5-way flops, you will almost never end the session a loser. You just need to win 2 of those jackpots you build with a set or nut flush, win half the time you flop a big pair (getting 3:1 odds), and that will be enough. [/ QUOTE ] Haha of all the dumb things said in this thread I liked this one the best by far. -DeathDonkey 
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#52
09-11-2007, 02:16 AM
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Re: 300/600 (WARNING: limit hold\'em)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] why do you people raise in limit? you know your hand has a chance in hell of ever holding up against the 45,000 callers [/ QUOTE ] If you are lucky enough to be in a limit game where you expect 5-way flops, you will almost never end the session a loser. You just need to win 2 of those jackpots you build with a set or nut flush, win half the time you flop a big pair (getting 3:1 odds), and that will be enough. [/ QUOTE ] Haha of all the dumb things said in this thread I liked this one the best by far. -DeathDonkey [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm, maybe it's just me who rarely comes out loser in a good live game? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Pray tell why this is wrong. Informally this seems to be how my $$$ breaks up. Informally, for you to read any statement of mine, someone with 15829x your mathematical talent, and quickly come to a conclusion that it's dumb, is, well... dumb.
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#54
09-11-2007, 02:23 AM
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Re: 300/600 (WARNING: limit hold\'em)
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PB, why are you betting like a scared school girl? [X] money left on table [X] learn to use the slider thingy to bet more [X] lol betsizeaments [X] it's like op wants to win (errrr, lose, in this case) the minimum [/ QUOTE ] this post is gay.
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#55
09-11-2007, 02:23 AM
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Re: 300/600 (WARNING: limit hold\'em)
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[ QUOTE ] Hmmm, maybe it's just me who rarely comes out loser in a good live game? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] this is funny. [/ QUOTE ] Do you want numbers? Sample size? Remember we are not counting games where it's 3-4 per flop. What can I do to help you?
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#56
09-11-2007, 02:24 AM
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Re: 300/600 (WARNING: limit hold\'em)
[ QUOTE ]
why do you people raise in limit? you know your hand has a chance in hell of ever holding up against the 45,000 callers [/ QUOTE ] i am sure that this is a joke, albeit a bad one.
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#57
09-11-2007, 02:25 AM
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Re: 300/600 (WARNING: limit hold\'em)
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bob I thought you were a 5/10 10/20 grinder [/ QUOTE ] i am. i just happen to be really good at limit hold'em and was a favorite in that game, so i played. although i quit once Chau Giang got up.
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#59
09-11-2007, 02:30 AM
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Re: 300/600 (WARNING: limit hold\'em)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] PB, why are you betting like a scared school girl? [X] money left on table [X] learn to use the slider thingy to bet more [X] lol betsizeaments [X] it's like op wants to win (errrr, lose, in this case) the minimum [/ QUOTE ] this post is gay. [/ QUOTE ] it's just meterosexual
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#60
09-11-2007, 02:52 AM
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Re: 300/600 (WARNING: limit hold\'em)
Filtered Pokertracker for hands where 5-10 see the flop. I am at 5 BB/100 and I don't think that's particularly atypical or "running good". (I thought it would be higher because I ran higher than that at microlimits). Let's move that up to 6 BB/100 because my Pokertracker sample is at much lower limits (and thus much higher rake) than I or anyone else plays live.
Let's assume 600 hands. That's 36 BB expected. Variance is something like 16BB/100, no? My Pokertracker will take forever if I try to switch tabs so I won't look. Of course this does not represent variance for 5-handed flops, but it's a starting point. We also know full ring variance is less than shorthand, so I would expect 5-handed flop to be even worse. Extrapolating this to 600 hands in my groggy midnight state, gives something close to the original 36 BB in expectation. Therefore if you break even for the session you will be about a standard dev below. Now this is somewhat likely. However, note three things: (1) Breakeven or close to breakeven is not "coming away loser". You would need to be 2 standard devs below (2) Live is going to have less variance (3) There's a tendency to not leave a good game while stuck. This is going to be a big big effect. In summary, the Central Limit Theorem is a powerful powerful thing and works quicker than you would expect. If anyone has read this far I will be amazed.
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