*Red Sox thread* News, views, and love for the front office - Page 59

sublime · #**581** 06-02-2006, 05:49 PM

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um, if people's main reason for not resigning him is "he doesn't do well against the yankees" that is pretty dumb. there are very good reasons to not resign him, but that one is not really one of them.

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I dunno...in 2003 and 2004 almost 20% of his IP were against the Yankees. I'd say it's a factor...not the major one but it's there.

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I don't get it, his overall stats are his overall stats.

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I guess my point is that games against the Yankees (both regular season and clearly postseason) are worth more than games against Tampa Bay. Clearly giving their major competitor a loss is worth more than giving TB a loss. But the overall stats don't reflect this weighting.

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also, GL finding me a starting pitcher who does well against the yankees after 70IP.

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I would prefer he is better than average if he's making $13m or whatever

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you do understand its mathmatically impossible for pedro to pitch as well against the yankees as he does vs the average AL team?

EDIT: over a decent sample size

Kneel B4 Zod · #**582** 06-02-2006, 06:11 PM

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um, if people's main reason for not resigning him is "he doesn't do well against the yankees" that is pretty dumb. there are very good reasons to not resign him, but that one is not really one of them.

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I dunno...in 2003 and 2004 almost 20% of his IP were against the Yankees. I'd say it's a factor...not the major one but it's there.

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I don't get it, his overall stats are his overall stats.

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I guess my point is that games against the Yankees (both regular season and clearly postseason) are worth more than games against Tampa Bay. Clearly giving their major competitor a loss is worth more than giving TB a loss. But the overall stats don't reflect this weighting.

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also, GL finding me a starting pitcher who does well against the yankees after 70IP.

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I would prefer he is better than average if he's making $13m or whatever

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you do understand its mathmatically impossible for pedro to pitch as well against the yankees as he does vs the average AL team?

EDIT: over a decent sample size

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of course.

but wouldn't you expect him to be better than an average AL starter against the Yankees?

The Yankees R/G was about 5.5 over 2003 and 2004. So what was the average ERA against the Yankees? A bit above 5? Basically exactly where Pedro was.

I'm not trying to bash Pedro here. I think his 1999/2000 seasons were the best 2 year stretch of pitching since the turn of the (last) century. his 17k, 1 ER (Chili Davis) game at Yankee Stadium mmight be the best pitched game I'v ever seen. but he was no longer a mystery to the Yankees by the end of 2004.

DougOzzzz · #**583** 06-02-2006, 06:50 PM

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um, if people's main reason for not resigning him is "he doesn't do well against the yankees" that is pretty dumb. there are very good reasons to not resign him, but that one is not really one of them.

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I dunno...in 2003 and 2004 almost 20% of his IP were against the Yankees. I'd say it's a factor...not the major one but it's there.

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I don't get it, his overall stats are his overall stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess my point is that games against the Yankees (both regular season and clearly postseason) are worth more than games against Tampa Bay. Clearly giving their major competitor a loss is worth more than giving TB a loss. But the overall stats don't reflect this weighting.

[ QUOTE ]

also, GL finding me a starting pitcher who does well against the yankees after 70IP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would prefer he is better than average if he's making $13m or whatever

[/ QUOTE ]

you do understand its mathmatically impossible for pedro to pitch as well against the yankees as he does vs the average AL team?

EDIT: over a decent sample size

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of course.

but wouldn't you expect him to be better than an average AL starter against the Yankees?

The Yankees R/G was about 5.5 over 2003 and 2004. So what was the average ERA against the Yankees? A bit above 5? Basically exactly where Pedro was.

I'm not trying to bash Pedro here. I think his 1999/2000 seasons were the best 2 year stretch of pitching since the turn of the (last) century. his 17k, 1 ER (Chili Davis) game at Yankee Stadium mmight be the best pitched game I'v ever seen. but he was no longer a mystery to the Yankees by the end of 2004.

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you are definitely drawing conclusions based on too small a sample.

Yes, it's certainly possible the Yanks had Pedro's number. It's more likely Pedro had a couple bad starts those years, and the Yanks made up the rest with their usual hitting. The numbers I gave were over his career. I'm pretty sure any type of regression analysis would show that past performance against a single team does a much poorer job of predicting future performance than a pitcher's overall stats + the opposing offense.

junglewarfare · #**584** 06-02-2006, 07:30 PM

I don't think it makes that much of a difference either way. Pedro's overall stats are his overall stats. mmmmaybe the fact that he is more likely to face the Yankees in a "high leverage" game, especially a postseason one, will change his value, but on the list of why the red sox should have turned down that deal I think that has got to be pretty low. plus its not definitive or anything that he is that much worse than average against the yankees, we aren't talking about too many innings here.

DougOzzzz · #**585** 06-02-2006, 10:01 PM

YOUKS!!!!!!!!

UncleRemus · #**586** 06-02-2006, 10:02 PM

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YOUKS!!!!!!!!

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Amazing. I really shouldn't have been yellin like I was with this sore throat, but that was just impossible to contain...

Scary_Tiger · #**587** 06-02-2006, 11:10 PM

Pitching talent like Pedro is a huge bargain. Letting him walk is foolish. On a market where basically every pitcher got overpaid and were getting the contracts they were getting, Pedro was well worth whatever it took to get him resigned.

The three best starting pitchers available on the 2004 FA market were Brad Radke (not actually available it turns out), David Wells and Pedro Martinez. Boston could have easily had two of the three. For all his little injuries, and All Star Break extensions, Pedro is still pretty much a lock for 200 IP and a top ten ERA each year for the life of his contract.

technologic · #**588** 06-02-2006, 11:17 PM

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Pitching talent like Pedro is a huge bargain. Letting him walk is foolish. On a market where basically every pitcher got overpaid and were getting the contracts they were getting, Pedro was well worth whatever it took to get him resigned.

The three best starting pitchers available on the 2004 FA market were Brad Radke (not actually available it turns out), David Wells and Pedro Martinez. Boston could have easily had two of the three. For all his little injuries, and All Star Break extensions, Pedro is still pretty much a lock for 200 IP and a top ten ERA each year for the life of his contract.

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this is such a results oriented post it's not even funny

Scary_Tiger · #**589** 06-02-2006, 11:23 PM

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Pitching talent like Pedro is a huge bargain. Letting him walk is foolish. On a market where basically every pitcher got overpaid and were getting the contracts they were getting, Pedro was well worth whatever it took to get him resigned.

The three best starting pitchers available on the 2004 FA market were Brad Radke (not actually available it turns out), David Wells and Pedro Martinez. Boston could have easily had two of the three. For all his little injuries, and All Star Break extensions, Pedro is still pretty much a lock for 200 IP and a top ten ERA each year for the life of his contract.

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this is such a results oriented post it's not even funny

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Umm, Radke fell apart in 2005 I'm pretty sure. And Wells is pretty broken up in 2006. It doesn't change the fact that a bunch of VERY mediocre starting pitchers were way overvalued that offseason.

Pavano, Wright, Milton, Lowe, Lieber, Benson, etc. are nothing special. If you looked at their numbers prior to that off season this was very clear.

(It turns out Radke didn't fall apart, he must have rebounded in the second half or something.)

technologic · #**590** 06-03-2006, 12:37 AM

so you're saying the sox should've overpaid for pedro, when he looked like he was on his decline coming off one of his worst years with k/9, bb/9, hr/9 all worsening, entering years typically where players drop off immensely at the latter part of his contract?

plus, there's no telling how far the mets would go to sign pedro, the sox were (smartly, imo) wise not to enter in a bidding war with omar. looking back now, seeing how pedro has developed his style around his declining power (somewhat surprising, high strikeout pitchers usually need it) it's easy to say that the sox made a mistake. with the information available at the time, i think they made the right move.