SSNL [cheese] thread: JUNE 2007 (nc) - Page 58

bilbo-san · #**571** 06-03-2007, 09:35 PM

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WTF why do I run so bad at 200NL (this played fine as well? Villain was 11/9/2 over 35 hands)

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $212.75
BB: $218.70
UTG: $476.95
MP: $205.00
CO: $64.70
BTN: $51.85

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
4 folds, Hero raises to $8.00, BB calls $6.00

Flop: ($16) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $10.00, BB calls $10.00

Turn: ($36) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $24.00, BB calls $24.00

River: ($84) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $50.00, BB raises all-in to $176.70, Hero calls all-in for $120.75
Uncalled bet of $5.95 returned to BB

Pot Size: $425.50 ($3 Rake)

BB had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a flush, Ace high) and WON (+$209.75)
Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and LOST (-$212.75)

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even over 35 hands, 11/9 isn't likely to be a donk.

In general taggish players are never going nuts on a paired, 3-flush board with less than the nut flush and I think bet-folding is the way to go on this river.

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I don't think his stats are too important over only 35 hands. I ran 8/7/1 over 80 hands at one table today when I'm normaly 20/16/3.

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My only point is that it is highly unlikey he is really 35/10 or some other droolerish variant, and therefore likely that he is a non-idiot. Whether he's 16/13 or 28/25 doesn't matter much. It's not a strong read, but good enough to use here, I think.

Do you push this river with less than the nut flush (unless you are bluffing)? You really expect worse hands to call if you do?

I agree villain can be bluffing as well but probably not often enough to call, because whenever he isn't bluffing he has the nut flush or better.

tufat23 · #**572** 06-03-2007, 09:36 PM

im on crazy lifetilt right now. really wanna talk to someone

why does everyone go to bed by 2.30am?

jonyy6788 · #**573** 06-03-2007, 09:39 PM

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im on crazy lifetilt right now. really wanna talk to someone

why does everyone go to bed by 2.30am?

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stop playing donkaments?

keikiwai · #**574** 06-03-2007, 09:42 PM

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Do you push this river with less than the nut flush (unless you are bluffing)? You really expect worse hands to call if you do?

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since it's a back doored flush i would push it w/ any flush at all, since you do get called by worse

gir · #**575** 06-03-2007, 09:46 PM

There's no actual way to fold this, is there? Especially since there was no betting on the turn...
I have a read that button is a terrible calling station.

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

SB: $213.75
BB: $225.40
Hero (UTG): $446.85
MP: $233.85
CO: $448.70
BTN: $640.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
Hero raises to $8.00, MP folds, CO calls $8.00, BTN calls $8.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($27) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero bets $22.00, CO calls $22.00, BTN calls $22.00

Turn: ($93) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

River: ($93) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero bets $75.00, CO raises all-in to $418.70, BTN calls $418.70, Hero calls all-in for $341.85

Pot Size: $1,347.25 ($3 Rake)

CO had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a full house, Aces full of Jacks) and WON (+$895.55)
BTN had 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a full house, Eights full of Aces) and LOST (-$448.70)
Hero had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a full house, Aces full of Eights) and LOST (-$446.85)

tufat23 · #**576** 06-03-2007, 09:47 PM

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im on crazy lifetilt right now. really wanna talk to someone

why does everyone go to bed by 2.30am?

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stop playing donkaments?

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first time in months. maybe i'm jsut not used to it.

variance: carrotsnake offered to back me in the $650 WSOP qualifier, and I xpertly said no

bilbo-san · #**577** 06-03-2007, 09:48 PM

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I'm really surprised -10BI is supposed to be standard. I've only lost 10BI once ever, and I was on huge monkeytilt. Multiple swings around -5BI, though.

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I'm the same way.

TBH, I think we're missing a lot of marginally +EV bluffing situations that we don't make because they usually cost you a stack when you are picked off (i.e. our Cajones are small and shrivelled).

So let's say you've got a feel for it and you're making a lot of all-in bluffs where you're probably about +3-4 PTBB EV (on average) per hand (maybe less, just pulling a number outta my ass for illustration purposes). You're making a lot of money over the long term, but of course your variance is huge because you are basically swinging +/- a stack all the time.

For me, I know it's a bankroll issue. I need 40-50 buy-ins to start playing like a want to play.

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It's definitely not a bankroll issue for me. I've got ~20k online right now, spread over various sites. I should be moving up, but I still don't feel I'm really crushing 200NL, as I felt I was crushing 100NL before I moved up. I ran at 7+ PTBB over a significant sample there, whereas I'm ~4PTBB at 200NL lifetime. Maybe a much higher winrate isn't possible for a nit like me.

I just don't think I have the right feel for spots in which I should be making those big bluffs. The thing about Stars 200NL is that most regulars really really hate folding. I should have a really tight image, and I'm still constantly surprised by what people pay me off with in certain spots. Spots in which I'll never ever or very very rarely show them a bluff.

Earlier in the May cheese thread you commented on a hand where my opponent cold-called my RR from then SB, then check-called with QQ twice against my OESFD. That was a spot in which I show up with a bluff (or even a semibluff) very very rarely. I'm just not going to have a hand I can bluff with very often, and I c-bet into two players on an immensely wet board in a reraised pot! I decided to bluff there especially because of that, but I still got called, and really, I knew I was going to be called. I think I should've reverse-posted that hand, I really think everyone would've told me to fold.

I have been working on some things to get more tricky, though: shoving flops against light 3betters with overcards/gutshots, floating in RR pots and double barreling a bit more. All plays that increase my variance, but I think they're +EV, both in the long run and for shania when I get caught.

As an example, villain seemed like a pretty good TAG. Yada yada blind battle TPTK is the nuts, but I'm just never ever showing him a worse hand. I really think he should be folding AQ here, but most Stars 200NL regs are never going to! Until they do, I'm just going to show them a set in this spot every time.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $198.00
Hero (BB): $236.20
UTG: $225.00
CO: $429.45
BTN: $178.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
3 folds, SB raises to $8.00, Hero calls $6.00

Flop: ($16) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $12.00, Hero raises to $38.00, SB calls $26.00

Turn: ($92) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $58.00, SB raises all-in to $152.00, Hero calls $94.00

River: ($396) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $396.00 ($2 Rake)

SB had Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$198.00)
Hero had 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Eights) and WON (+$196.00)

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J-

You're approaching this the wrong way, imho. I'm not as laggy as Carrotsnake or Clayton or Tufat (or at least as laggy as everyone THINKS they are), but imho the way to LAG it up is to simply read hands and then try to push Villains off their hands when Villains don't much like their hand.

The classic (and overly simplified) version of this is floating in position and then betting the turn with a gutshot (or raising the flop with one). You aren't trying to make villains fold STRONG hands, you are trying to make them fold the bottom of their range. If villain can have 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on a Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] board, then clearly it's great to get him to fold when you have 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]!

Similarly, it's great to get people to fold TT on a QJ3 board when you have 98, or AK, or 55.

So the illustrations you provide aren't very telling. 95% of regs just don't fold overpairs or TPGK+ (and they are correct not to do so in general, but not so much against you), and no matter how nitty you are, if you appear solid, they'll always optimistically think you have a draw (or the same hand). [by the way, the AQ hand above is funny -- I think it's [censored] hilarious when people take the stack-a-donk line vs. solid players -- does that EVER work? Anyone here EVER seen a solid regular call the above stack-a-donk with, like, KQ? Without some history?]

So forget getting people to fold strong hands like QQ+ as overpairs or TPTK, it's about getting people to fold hands that (they think) are marginal, that actually crush you. And that's really just all about hand reading and getting a feel for your opponents (i.e. bluffing people that can't fold a pair is stupid even if you read hands so well that you KNOW they have bottom pair).

Anyway, the better lags can chime in if I have said anything outrageous here.

bilbo-san · #**578** 06-03-2007, 09:52 PM

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I agree. Why raise a Q here?

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Because it's BVB and you'd like to bluff-raise a ton in that spot. If villain only continues w/ QJ+ that's auto-money for us.

And I 3-bet 88 there 100% of the time.

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Sure, but, um, why raise with a Q? Especially if he is only calling with QJ+? So you are bluffing with queens?

I think you should be floating this flop a ton and betting a lot of turns, not raising a lot of flops. Flop is dry as hell.

ImsaKidd · #**579** 06-03-2007, 10:10 PM

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im on crazy lifetilt right now. really wanna talk to someone

why does everyone go to bed by 2.30am?

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TUFAT PLZ DONT BE SAD

GrandMelon · #**580** 06-03-2007, 10:12 PM

Any of you Eurodonks have a Eurolinx account? Im looking to get $200 off there. Will take stars or FTP monies in return, PM if you can help

Im also looking to get about 200 off FTP in exchange for stars monies.