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#511
05-19-2006, 11:57 AM
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Re: Demon Game Thread
Quite frankly, I was somewhat surprised to be alive this morning. Now that I know with relative certainty that Traz is the demon hunter, I can at least discard nightmare scenarios of a traz/kyro 1-2 punch.
Scenarios: I am villager/demon. Kyro is Oracle/demon Scenario 1: I am a villager, kyro is the Oracle. I would think the easy demon play would be to kill me last night to set up kyro. Witness aaronk56's statement about how that makes kyro look. Even if you guys weren't willing to lynch him today, it would taint the information he gave you, adding to the confusion. However, it could be too easy. A savvy demon would remember that the reason my lynch fell apart was it was too tidy, and might vary the plan accordingly. Scenario 2: I am a demon, kyro is the Oracle. There is a good chance after Andrew turns up villager, that you guys lynch me today. I would definitely be willing to risk a jump last night with 2 of the 3 danger roles out in the open. Plus, it has the bonus effect of possibly getting you guys to lynch the Oracle. Scenario 3: I am a villager, kyro is a demon. This is the one where me being alive seems to make the most sense on the surface. I stated pretty late last night that I was starting to trust kyro. I am also now associated with kyro in everyone's mind. If you lynch me as a test for the Oracle, kyro will pass. Alternately, since xorbie and kyro, both respected players "vetted" me yesterday, I would have been an interesting target for possession. Scenario 4: I am a demon, kyro is a demon. In this scenario, I think one of two things would have to have happened: a) he does not avert the easy lynch train. That establishes him more firmly as the Oracle. Even though he would be the only one left at that point, it would be a long time, I think before most suspected him after actively participating in the lynching of his only partner. Worst case scenario, it gets too hot, he jumps. b)he does avert the lynch train, I jump that night. Therefore we ensure that the demon team lives a bit longer. I do not discount c) I stay alive, and hope I can pull him out of the fire. But given that as a baddie, I think I am a better strategist/spotter than poster, this would probably not be the best use of our talents. Scenario 3 seems to be the most persuasive. However, I am not enamored of it, and like kyro yesterday (lol) I don't really know why. If scenario 3 is not the true scenario, if I am a villager and kyro is an Oracle, then someone does jump out at me a bit, but I will let that simmer a little. Thoughts? Flaws? 
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#512
05-19-2006, 12:10 PM
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Re: Demon Game Thread
I don't understand why everyone is associating Kyro and VR. For the moment, its best to not associate them and make assumptions about one, based on the other. VR's post mostly relies on this, and I just don't get it.
Deal with them separately. Leave Kyro until the end, there's nothing else that can be done.
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#514
05-19-2006, 12:12 PM
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Re: Demon Game Thread
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why everyone is associating Kyro and VR. For the moment, its best to not associate them and make assumptions about one, based on the other. VR's post mostly relies on this, and I just don't get it. Deal with them separately. Leave Kyro until the end, there's nothing else that can be done. [/ QUOTE ] I actually agree completely. But I think many people would be willing to associate us after yesterday. (Okay, I really really have to go now.) Edit: also, the argument for lynching me rests almost entirely on our supposed "association" if I understand everyone's philosophies.
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#515
05-19-2006, 12:35 PM
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Re: Demon Game Thread
I'm leaving work in about 5 minutes, and may not be home until after 9PM. I haven't voted yet, and won't until I return home. I will, however, be home in time to make a vote, assuming there is no majority by that time.
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#516
05-19-2006, 12:36 PM
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Re: Demon Game Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Edit: also, the argument for lynching me rests almost entirely on our supposed "association" if I understand everyone's philosophies. [/ QUOTE ] Not to me. If we lynch you, we can look at how everyone ELSE voted, and see what it may mean. IE, if you're a villager, we can see who tried to vote you off. If you're a wolf, we can see who tried to slyly vote for andrew.
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#517
05-19-2006, 12:37 PM
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Re: Demon Game Thread
[ QUOTE ]
I think Scenario 1 is the most likely, and I think the demons killed GT1T hoping to hit the angel. But what do I know. [/ QUOTE ] scenario one seems most likely to me as well, but i am still not sure about vr. For some reason, I still tend to believe that kyro is the oracle. I think either Kyro and VR are both demons or neither are and I tend to believe it is probably neither Looking at Aaron's list, I still have no clear candidates. Evans and Xorbie haven't done enough for me to suspect them yet, and i haven't felt that Iron Yuppy or Zurvan have been overly suspicious yet. So from that list Bravos and Aaron are my two candidates ...
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#518
05-19-2006, 12:40 PM
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Re: Demon Game Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think Scenario 1 is the most likely, and I think the demons killed GT1T hoping to hit the angel. But what do I know. [/ QUOTE ] scenario one seems most likely to me as well, but i am still not sure about vr. For some reason, I still tend to believe that kyro is the oracle. I think either Kyro and VR are both demons or neither are and I tend to believe it is probably neither Looking at Aaron's list, I still have no clear candidates. Evans and Xorbie haven't done enough for me to suspect them yet, and i haven't felt that Iron Yuppy or Zurvan have been overly suspicious yet. So from that list Bravos and Aaron are my two candidates ... [/ QUOTE ] Wow. Did anybody else feel the room get VERY cold all of a sudden?
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#519
05-19-2006, 12:42 PM
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Re: Demon Game Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I think Scenario 1 is the most likely, and I think the demons killed GT1T hoping to hit the angel. But what do I know. [/ QUOTE ] scenario one seems most likely to me as well, but i am still not sure about vr. For some reason, I still tend to believe that kyro is the oracle. I think either Kyro and VR are both demons or neither are and I tend to believe it is probably neither Looking at Aaron's list, I still have no clear candidates. Evans and Xorbie haven't done enough for me to suspect them yet, and i haven't felt that Iron Yuppy or Zurvan have been overly suspicious yet. So from that list Bravos and Aaron are my two candidates ... [/ QUOTE ] Wow. Did anybody else feel the room get VERY cold all of a sudden? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, especially when I seem to be the most suspicious, then on his list I get demoted to not susupicious enough.
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#520
05-19-2006, 12:43 PM
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Re: Demon Game Thread
Scenario 1 - I agree with your statement. Another possibility is that the demons felt the villagers were nowhere so they just went with a random "angel" kill.
Scenario 2- I agree if this was the situation, you should've jumped. Scenario 3 - This one does seem possible. I don't know what you mean when you say xorbie vetted you yesterday, I don't think xorbie really is paying attention. Also, if GT1T was a demon, you could have been possessed. Scenario 4 a) Your reasoning is faulty, it would be nearly impossible for a single demon to win against a DH with two bullets. Scenario b) seems the most likely but that might put too much heat on Kyro, so Scenario c) becomes the fallback position.
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