MAFIA

[Boiler_bd]

I cant believe people dont believe me. It should be obvious I am who I say since no one else has come out. The doctor needs to protect me until we get a seer to come out with some confirmed villagers.

I am probably going to fire 2 shots at someone tonight unless you guys disagree. I think we have to go wdc today. We have to lynch him at some point. If he is the seer he isn't going to be of any more help to us. If he is mafia then it would be of great help to kill the godfather/$ guy or regular mafia with armor.

[shortline99]

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this game makes me hurt.

can we at least get a show of hands? what are the odds wdc is faking?

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they're going down but still approximately 50/50 IMO.

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i was also going to say 50/50. and i still think we benefit by lynching him even if it is 50/50.

if we hit a village confidence ratio of 70/30 (not faking), then we let him live.

[shortline99]

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I am probably going to fire 2 shots at someone tonight unless you guys disagree.

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aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaa

[Our House]

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Another rules question.

If we lynch someone who is wearing armour, do we find out?

Yes.

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If a cop is blocked, exactly what (verbatim) are they told?

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I had submitted my peek and hadn't heard by this morning so I pmed again to make sure Fish had it. I was told "Got your peek. You got bribed."

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Fo shizzle. Then, why did you say this earlier today:

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If I was faking they know I would come up with a name this morning.

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explain this.

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I was told by Fish "you were blocked" when I submitted my peek. You can confirm that this is what I would be told.

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The other thing...

If you're the real seer (on OUR side), what do we have to benefit by you telling us that you peeked the OTHER seer? That's like giving the mafia a road map to him. All they'd have to do is look at the list of players, determine who you would never peek, and rule those players out. C'mon man.

[shortline99]

lol u knit

[Hornacek]

I have a good read on wdcbooks.

Yesterday I found nothing wolfy about him.

I am pretty sure he is the seer. Don't ask me how, he just seems like it. As creative as it is, the likelihood of him being mafia and creating that contrived of a story is a little too far fetched for me.

I will not vote or lynch him.

[Our House]

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lol u knit

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LOL, well...we went through this exact routine in Simpsons. Books was there. He should know.

Cops were verifying their status and competency by giving word-for-word responses about the peeks they received.

[shortline99]

%s please

[Boiler_bd]

I could easily go GT or DMB today FWIW.

[Zurvan]

The case for letting wdc live:

If we assume wdc is the seer, it's obvious why we keep him alive. The mafia either has to spend $100/night to block his peeks, or try and kill him. If we lynch the consigliere, then he gets his peeks, and may even live a night or two, if the Doctor is still alive.

If wdc is mafia, we will find out in 4 days or so, when our seers are killed/come out. Once one seer is revealed, the other seer will have whatever peeks he had, PLUS wdc. Practically a bonus peek.

Worst case, wdc is consigliere. This is only slightly worse than the mafia situation, because we can't lynch the consigliere while wdc is alive. But, again, it will be sorted out in a few days.

In addition, there are some scenarios that give away that wdc is not a blocked seer - an extra (non-vigilante) kill tonight, for example, tells us that they didn't spend the money to block his peek. Us lynching an armored mafia today, as well.

I think the night kill of Scott increases the odds that wdc is not mafia, based on the reasoning set out above. If wdc is the seer, I think it narrows down who we can look at as potential mafia, based on who would consider Scott a reasonable candidate for wdc's first peek.

I would need to be > 80% sure that wdc is faking to lynch him here. At best, I feel it is 40%.

I feel now the same about wdc as I do about boiler - he should not be lynched until we have some confirmation that he is lying. There is a lot of potential ways to discover that, and I don't think it hurts us to keep them alive.


Boiler - DON'T [censored] SHOOT ANYBODY TONIGHT. THAT'S RETARDED. If you do, I will lynch you.

Also, doctor - DON'T PROTECT BOILER. At least not 100%. Consider randomizing your protection among boiler, wdc, and a small percentage on potential seers.

And, Lynch horn