ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007

[AbreuTime]

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7 X 5 league with bb's and k's for hitters. 10 man league with the 5th pick. I drafted:

utley
ichiro (swapped 2nd and 3rd round picks to get aramis early in 3rd)
aramis ramirez
a. jones
carlos lee (keeper from last year)
myers
giambi
schmidt
cain
bedard
thome
randy johnson
todd jones
jorge julio
kei igawa
teahan
laroche
bill hall
freddy garcia
burrell
dan wheeler
michael barrett

Looks like my pitching is suspect. Opinions?

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Maybe you haven't heard "Pitching wins Championships"
I won't bash your team too much since you must be a rookie, but here is some advice!! Do some reasearch before you get in a fantasy league. You overvalued these players: Ichiro, Jones, Giambi, Schmidt. Randy Johnson may get 10 starts this year. Good luck, but it looks like you will become the joke of the league. Better luck next year rookie
(I do like the Kei draft pick)

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"Pitching wins championships" does not pertain to fantasy baseball. It refers to the opinion that good pitching can defeat good hitting. In a 7x5 fantasy league, the hitting categories are more important, since 58% of the categories are hitting categories. Yes he reached for a few players, but overall, he did ok. A rotation of Myers, Cain, Schmidt, and Bedard is good enough to win the league. His closers are weak, but with a good lineup, it can be overcome. And Carlos Lee does not appear to be a reach in round 5 (and as a keeper, he probably had no choice what round to draft him). Andrew Jones in a contract year isnt that bad for a 4th round pick. Barrett was a great last pick, and Teahan could pay off in a big way. I don't think Freddy Garcia will have much value to you, and I would scan the waiver wire for a starter with upside. I also would consider trading Thome for a top closer (you already have a few high K hitters).

[Magra]

Alright, I'm a terrible fantasy baseball player. This is my first year, and I'm not sure on what I'm doing. Got offered a trade, so lemme break it down. My lineup looks like this:

Victor Martinez- C
David Ortiz- 1B
Josh Barfield- 2B
Ryan Zimmerman- 3B
Carlos Guillen- SS
Matt Holliday- OF
Jason Bay- OF
Alex Rios- OF
Nick Markakis- UTILITY
Ian Kinsler- Bench (2b)
Mark Teahen- Bench (3B)
Bobby Crosby- Bench (SS)
Shea Hillenbrand- Bench (1B, 3B)


I was offered a trade for Guillen, and I would recieve H. Matsui. I do need some OF help, and I could start Crosby @ SS. Should I do it?


Also, I'm thinking of putting Ortiz @ UTILITY spot, and moving Hilenbrand up to 1B. Should I look for a FA first basemen, or is Hilenbrand ok?

[AbreuTime]

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, I'm a terrible fantasy baseball player. This is my first year, and I'm not sure on what I'm doing. Got offered a trade, so lemme break it down. My lineup looks like this:

Victor Martinez- C
David Ortiz- 1B
Josh Barfield- 2B
Ryan Zimmerman- 3B
Carlos Guillen- SS
Matt Holliday- OF
Jason Bay- OF
Alex Rios- OF
Nick Markakis- UTILITY
Ian Kinsler- Bench (2b)
Mark Teahen- Bench (3B)
Bobby Crosby- Bench (SS)
Shea Hillenbrand- Bench (1B, 3B)


I was offered a trade for Guillen, and I would recieve H. Matsui. I do need some OF help, and I could start Crosby @ SS. Should I do it?


Also, I'm thinking of putting Ortiz @ UTILITY spot, and moving Hilenbrand up to 1B. Should I look for a FA first basemen, or is Hilenbrand ok?

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You have depth at 2B and 3B (Kinsler and Teahen are good enough to have starting in a standard 12 team league, so if someone offered a trade for Zimmerman or Barfield, I would do it), but not really at SS. I think the dropoff from Guillen to Crosby is larger than the upgrade from Markakis/Teahen to Matsui, which is what you're being offered.

I'm not a fan of Hillenbrand. Just leave Ortiz at 1B, and keep your eyes out for any position player who might be better than Teahen/Markakis.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, I'm a terrible fantasy baseball player. This is my first year, and I'm not sure on what I'm doing. Got offered a trade, so lemme break it down. My lineup looks like this:

Victor Martinez- C
David Ortiz- 1B
Josh Barfield- 2B
Ryan Zimmerman- 3B
Carlos Guillen- SS
Matt Holliday- OF
Jason Bay- OF
Alex Rios- OF
Nick Markakis- UTILITY
Ian Kinsler- Bench (2b)
Mark Teahen- Bench (3B)
Bobby Crosby- Bench (SS)
Shea Hillenbrand- Bench (1B, 3B)


I was offered a trade for Guillen, and I would recieve H. Matsui. I do need some OF help, and I could start Crosby @ SS. Should I do it?


Also, I'm thinking of putting Ortiz @ UTILITY spot, and moving Hilenbrand up to 1B. Should I look for a FA first basemen, or is Hilenbrand ok?

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Your OF is great as is. I would stick with Guillen. Util I think you can swap around Markakis and Teahan based on pitching matchups and be fine.

[MikeyPatriot]

I posted about this league a month ago, but now the draft is coming up on Saturday, and I'd like to go over my plan.

Here's a couple files to help give a good idea of the league:

http://www.mediafire.com/?cmnnwieziwm

This is the list of available players, using BP's Player Forecast Manager with inflation and centralized for my team.

http://www.mediafire.com/?alddzkzyie0

This is the draft sheet I will be using, with every team's money situation and roster. Note that we use a $26 salary cap instead of the usual $260. Also, make sure you look at the bottom where I have the projected numbers for first place in each category (Used a weighted 3 year system/Runs and Ks were introduced last year, and last year's winning number is shown here).

All of the guys in this league are pretty intelligent players, but seem to have a bit of trouble overvaluing certain guys (as evidenced by some of the keepers in the spreadsheet). I don't think any of them subscribe to a site like BP or have any sort of saber inclination. Ostensibly, they will come prepared, but might not be studying the right things. I also have a slight edge being a poker player and 1) understanding EV better than most and 2) reading body language to get an idea of how someone values a player.

This is an 11 team, AL only, standard 5x5 roto league, with a contract-based keeper system.

I am tied with having the most money to spend at the draft, but have less spots to fill than the other team with the same amount. Hence, I am looking to spend big on at least one superstar which my team currently lacks.

Here's my plan:

1. Draft one of the following at or slightly above value (post-inflation):

- Francisco Rodriguez
- Carl Crawford
- Joe Nathan
- Johan Santana

2. Draft players that I think will be undervalued like:

- Eric Gagne (PECOTA has him returning to form this year)
- Coco Crisp (he was mentioned when I first posted about this league)
- Adrian Beltre (coming off an disappointing year, PECOTA shows him having a good fantasy year)
- Akinori Iwamura (with Daisuke being the big import this year, I think Iwamura might fly under the radar)
- Javier Vazquez (I actually had the chance to retain him this year, but I think I can get him back for cheaper than I had him. He's kind of borderline because he's a WSox player and is a good K guy, but there's a chance his "disappointing" past 3 years might get me some value)
- J.D. Drew (I think he's a guy I can get later in the draft for a good price)
-Andy Pettitte (coming off a poor season)

3. Try and get one of Victor Martinez, Mike Piazza, Mike Napoli, Jason Kendall, or Dioner Navarro at C for an OK price.

4. Outside of one of the guys listed in step 1 and one other tier 2 pitcher (Mariano Rivera, Jeremy Bonderman, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Vazquez, Pettitte,), focusing on offense, and picking up a cheap but solid pitching staff. I'm willing to spend money on closers, but SP is pretty deep this year.

5. Nominate Corey Lidle. Too soon?

I'm really excited. Last year, my dad's wife died and he bought a business and he asked me last minute to draft for him. I did a good job considering time restraints and the roster given (I had the opposite situation as I do this year - few roster spots open and little money to spend). This year, I've set the team up well through trades from last year (Young, Granderson, and Marte for guys with expiring contracts). Depending on performance this year, I'll be able to offer Young, Marte, Pena, Sowers and Youkilis long term contracts. Young is almost a given unless something outrageous happens to him. Unfortunately, the corner stone of my draft last year, Liriano, would be taking up too much of my cap (1.20) to justify keeping him this year. There's a chance I can draft him for cheaper at some point (or depending on my draft, at the same amount).

The draft is Saturday and I'd love to hear some thoughts.

[J.R.]

Settings Question: In a 20 team H2H 5x5 mixed league allowing 3 SPs, 2 RPs, 2 Ps and 4 bench spots (all possibly pitchers), is a 35 inning minimum reasonable?

If not, what innings minimum or range of innings minimums would be reasonable?

[TMTTR]

5x5 deep mixed league - roto style - no keepers - looking at 2007 only:

Jarrod Washburn or James Shields?

[chalk7]

anyone know a good place to find who the 2 start pitchers are for the following week?

[J.R.]

link

link

link

[KurtSF]

I need one last starter on my team. I've culled the free agents available and found the 2 best choices, but I can't decide between them. League stats are IP, W, L, SV, HR, K, ERA, WHIP.

Do you take Adam Eaton or Wade Miller?