AP Visit: I'm going to Costa Rica

[Josem]

Clearly Nat is not a live, walking, lie detector. He may not even be the best person in the world for this. But he's clearly intelligent and coherent.

But, like they say in the Castle, it's the vibe, your honour, that he needs to look at.

[Josem]

ED,

re: lying

hence, in my first post in this thread i suggested insisting on being able to speak to people individually.

there are already people inside AP who have opened up to Nat; that trust has value.

[TheMuppet]

This is the worst idea ever (second only to the idea of having a super user account).

First of all, you’re not going to get any access to anything that matters. The chance of you actually doing anything good is zero.

Lets pretend you do it:
You come back saying bad things about AP? Well nothing, AP can deny anything you say, claming that you’re biased and that you’re making a subjective judgment (and rightfully so). Since you didn't have access to any factual information.

You come back saying good things about AP? Well then AP wins, now they can claim that the guy uncovering this mess is giving them the thumbs up.

And last but not least. You get paid (and I fully understand that you do, and that its not a bribe or anything). But that doesn’t change the fact that most of the dorks in here wont see it like that. In fact your going to alienate them, and your credibility is down the drain.

But you’re free to do whatever you like. Including play their game, using their rules, and on their home turf.

Personally I cannot fathom why anyone would do that, but that’s just me.

[Erasa]

[ QUOTE ]

I believe that an important part of determining whether such a problem is going to happen again is in understanding the culture of the place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo.

I think this goes to the heart of what needs to be accomplished.
Like I mentioned earlier, I have done plenty of technical due diligence (DD) mainly with an eye towards acquistions and while that is not what we are dealing with here I still think the situation is somewhat analogous to what Nat would be dealing with. When you conduct a DD on another company I assure you that there are all kinds of hidden and not so hidden motives and agendas at play for people having a vested interest in shading the story a certain way. They may want to appear more competent than they are to drive up the price; they may appear to be more inept to dissuade someone from buying them etc etc. But by asking the right questions and being attuned to "the vibes" the place and people give off you can still ascertain something about the true nature of the situation at hand. So they may lie to Nat - wow; I am sure a poker player have never been lied to before.

People and companies conduct due diligences all the time despite knowing that people/company being investigated have a motive for shading the "story" a certain way - ask yourself why that may be.

I realize that my earlier email primarily dealt with software development processes; that is obviously less relevant if they don't develop inhouse, but there are plenty of other aspects of the operation to learn about by asking pointed questions and ask for documentation backing up the answers to those questions.

So again; as someone who have done these types of investigations there is plenty to be learnt by asking questions and having the old BS detector turned out. What they are not saying is as least as important as what they are saying.

Having read most if not all of these threads I have the utmost confidence that Nat can do this - believe me; E&Y, Deloitte and Touche, PWCL, KPMG and McKinsey for that matter have plenty of 25 year old consultants and they are not shy about charging $250 - $300 p/h plus expenses for those consultants. "Our" consultant just happens to have a thorough understanding of poker as well.

AP can pay Nat all they want to; Nat will still be able to sniff out the cultural and the spirit of the place to either give us confidence they will right the ship or not.

Good luck
Erasa

[PoorSkillz]

Hey, didn't reporter Jenny Woo visit Absolute Poker HQ? Why don't we just ask her what she thought of the place? I'm sure she loved it!

[Dan Druff]

This is getting a bit stupid.

While many of you have valid points regarding the potential flaws in the Nat visit to AP, I cannot think of any kind of flawless audit situation.

If a professional audit firm -- even a completely independent one -- audited AP, we would have tons of criticism. Namely, AP could hide what they don't want the auditor to see, and the auditor won't know exactly what to look for. Even if WE could choose the auditing firm, there is no way that any previously uninvolved auditor would be able to know exactly what to look for. Even if we gave this auditor a list of things to examine, he wouldn't be able to come up with other items on the fly. Someone involved the whole time is the ideal candidate to examine AP, as he knows exactly what we're after.

Now, is it possible that AP is simply using Nat as a more legitimate sounding mouthpiece? Yes. Is it likely that AP will allow Nat to see anything that would make them look worse? No. I understand that.

However, I still say it's better than nothing. What is the alternative? We just continue to sit here and guess at things? We take AP's word for what's going on? We wait for the very possibly biased Gaming Associates to issue their report? I'll take my chances with Nat.

I don't think he's going to be snowed by AP garbage. He may not be able to force anything out of them, but I doubt he'll come back as a staunch advocate of AP. And I especially doubt he'd ever allow himself to be bought off.

Let's wait and see what happens.

[ThWi]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, in the process of speaking with a number of people involved in the AP situation over the last week, I made a few contacts who think it's a good idea to bring me down to Costa Rica for a week. I'll explain...

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been following this whole saga over the past week and this is my first post.

Everyone is obviously entitled to express their opinion on Nat taking the trip and/or on the EV of making such a trip. Peace with that.

However, Nat with all the work he has done which is benefitting more than just himself is also entirely entitled to make such a trip should he wish to do so. The fact that he posts background, conditions, explanation and reasoning is wise though not required. It is, however, just one of many indicators of his integrity. Throughout the debate, dramas and discussions he has shown nothing but the highest level of integrity.
I don't care what his official status is or isn't. I'll be happy, nay proud, to call him my representative.

When he reports back, whatever the report is, there will be people believing it and people that don't. There will be people thinking it is a positive result and people that don't. Continue ad nauseum [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Thanks to Nat and everyone else for the amzing and amazing amount of work they have done to uncover the scandal.

[Janis N.]

solid first post, ThWi; expresses my feelings very well

[carol-ann]

[ QUOTE ]
The second point is, why Nat?

[/ QUOTE ]He seems like the best candidate we have, given how much he has uncovered already (with the help of others, obviously).

[ QUOTE ]
If the community is going to send someone then we need a seasoned person who's been around for a while. People like Mason, Sklansky, Zee, Diablo, and maybe Druff (though I don't know enough about him to say). These people may not be interested but there must be a better choice.

[/ QUOTE ]How about we send your grandmother? She's a seasoned person who's been around for a while, isn't she?

I'll ask her if she's interested the next time she comes over to play bridge, is that OK with you?

[TheMuppet]

[ QUOTE ]

First, I am not going to audit the company. I do not have the resources, expertise or power to audit the company. They have Gaming Associates there doing an audit on the admitted cheating accounts.


[/ QUOTE ]

He is not doing an audit, so why are you rambling about auditing them?

Nothing good will ever come of him visiting them. Whatever good he says will play into AP's hands, and whatever bad he says they can dismiss (due to him not having access to any factual information). And most of not all of his credibility is going to be lost (no matter the outcome).

Why are people even trying to help these clowns? They lied to everyone, they tried to cover it up, and they continue to lie and cover up.