Watch Out For Ron Paul - Page 5

TomCollins · #41 10-06-2007, 01:32 PM

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Regardless, there are plenty of people (like me) who are currently registered nothings, but will soon be Republicans voting for Paul.

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If you're currently a registered nothing you'd better move really fast on registering Republican.

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Depends on the state. In Texas, there is no need to.

tolbiny · #42 10-06-2007, 01:35 PM

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I would also like to point out that Dr. Paul's average donation was apparently $40. That leaves a LOT of room for repeat donations, not to mention new donators.

The people who think that "everyone who would vote for Dr. Paul are already supporting him" are going to be in for a big surprise. I'll let others elaborate. Brief Hint: "Freedom is good", "Taxation, regulation, and government in general should all be smaller" and "End the war" all resonate. There is exactly one candidate who espouses all of these positions.

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Paul's anti-war stance doesn't resonate with the majority of registered Republicans. You underestimate how blindly bellicose and jingoistic most Republicans are. 69% of Republicans still approve of Bush ( http://canadianpress.google.com/arti...CTpNEgrmnvEVBA ) . Do you think the type of person who still approves of Bush is going to vote for Ron Paul? I doubt it. There is the possibility of independents and democrats turning out in large numbers for Paul in the primaries, but the deck is already stacked so strongly against him. Sorry, but thats the way it is.

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Yeah, I support Ron Paul. But it looks like he won't win. So I shouldn't waste my time. I should just support those people who look like they are going to win. The front runners have the exact opposite views on policy of Ron Paul. So I'm going to support people who have the exact opposite agenda that I want.

Wait. There's a logic flaw somewhere in there, hmm.

Oh yeah, it's that people should support who they want to win, not who they think is going to win. That's right.

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Read my post again. I never said you shouldn't support Ron Paul. I was just critiquing Boro's optimistic assessment of how well Paul's message will resonate with people who will vote in the Republican primaries.

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Party loyalty is a primary driver for the continued support of Bush, people who have been republicans all their lives will support a republican president.

ALawPoker · #43 10-06-2007, 01:44 PM

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Regardless, there are plenty of people (like me) who are currently registered nothings, but will soon be Republicans voting for Paul.

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If you're currently a registered nothing you'd better move really fast on registering Republican.

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Depends on the state. In Texas, there is no need to.

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I'll have to look into it. I kind of thought I could just show up to city hall whenever I please and be like "this is who I am, count it" but I guess there is probably some inane process to go through. I could probably get away with registering in MA if I'm already too late for NY, so I might have 2 shots anyways.

Money2Burn · #44 10-06-2007, 02:16 PM

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I always thought old school Republicans were closer to Libertarians than Democrats. But certainly not this new breed of cut taxes and spend.

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I was going to post something along these lines, people like my parents are exactly this way, they have voted Republican their whole lives, but I recently introduced them to Ron Paul and they pretty much were like "ZOMG! Where have more candidates like him been all these years?"

JuntMonkey · #45 10-06-2007, 02:34 PM

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Regardless, there are plenty of people (like me) who are currently registered nothings, but will soon be Republicans voting for Paul.

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If you're currently a registered nothing you'd better move really fast on registering Republican.

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Depends on the state. In Texas, there is no need to.

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I'll have to look into it. I kind of thought I could just show up to city hall whenever I please and be like "this is who I am, count it" but I guess there is probably some inane process to go through. I could probably get away with registering in MA if I'm already too late for NY, so I might have 2 shots anyways.

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I'm in NY, I think the deadline is October 12th.

Copernicus · #46 10-06-2007, 04:17 PM

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An obvious oversimplification but with some validity.
If 70% of Republicans support Bush and their are 7 candidates running to continue Bush's legacy (thus splitting up their votes). That leaves 30% of Republican voters searching for something else and only one candidate who can offer that.

Simple math barring any funny business by RNC at the Convention leads to a Paul nomination.

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God I hope youre a Democrat. Id be embarrassed for the GOP if this is the logic of a supporter.

Bump_Bailey · #47 10-06-2007, 04:25 PM

I am a registered republican now. 20-30% of the vote in the primary is usually good enough to get the nomination.

Copernicus · #48 10-06-2007, 04:36 PM

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I am a registered republican now. 20-30% of the vote in the primary is usually good enough to get the nomination.

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The problem is your assumption that the 70% is split evenly amongst the other candidates because they happen to be more similar to Bush than Paul is. In reality two major "Bush-lke" candidates get 20-30% each and the other 50% is split by the losers 6 ways.

Taso · #49 10-06-2007, 05:08 PM

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Regardless, there are plenty of people (like me) who are currently registered nothings, but will soon be Republicans voting for Paul.

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If you're currently a registered nothing you'd better move really fast on registering Republican.

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Depends on the state. In Texas, there is no need to.

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I'll have to look into it. I kind of thought I could just show up to city hall whenever I please and be like "this is who I am, count it" but I guess there is probably some inane process to go through. I could probably get away with registering in MA if I'm already too late for NY, so I might have 2 shots anyways.

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I'm in NY, I think the deadline is October 12th.

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I'm 'pretty' sure that you just have to register 25 days before the election you wish to vote in.

ALawPoker · #50 10-06-2007, 05:13 PM

Your problem (if I may focus on just one for a moment) is your assumption that somebody "supporting" Bush in a broad sense would necessarily desire a candidate exactly like him. I think GOP campaign strategies and (to some extent) the field of candidates makes it pretty clear that the Republican base does not want another Bush, if it wasn't clear anyways. But that's just me, and my silly little desire to actually consider the significance of a piece of data before I run my mouth about it.

Not that there aren't good arguments against RP's chances (I don't think anyone here would claim it isn't still an enormous long shot), but the "Bush is supported by 69% of Republicans" thing is a beyond laughable attempt.