Ichiro and a hypothetical question for stats/Sabermetrics folks

[jogsxyz]

I wouldn't mess with Ichiro's homerun production. But
his OBP is only .379. Get it over .400. Have him protect
the plate and foul off more pitches. Try for more walks.
Want every at bat to be nine or more pitches.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't mess with Ichiro's homerun production. But
his OBP is only .379. Get it over .400. Have him protect
the plate and foul off more pitches. Try for more walks.
Want every at bat to be nine or more pitches.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ichiro can't walk more, because he doesn't hit for enough power. The common wisdom is that pitchers only walk hitters they are afraid of. Like that on base machine Dave Kingman

[Jack of Arcades]

Yeah, exactly. You didn't see Rickey Henderson walking, did you?

[mo42nyy]

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1)from an anecdotal standpoint as a pitcher, the baserunner on first is not a distraction if you have any idea what you are doing. the pickoff throws are meant to keep him close as an RHP, not to actually produce an out. your delivery to the plate from the stretch will be the same 100% of the time regardless of who is on first base. your delivery time must be 1.3 seconds or less, or you're going to be murdered regardless of who is on first.




2)as for limiting your breaking pitches, yes, that's always possible. that being said, most pitchers don't use a curve as their groundball pitch to generate a gidp with runners on and will more likely use their two-seam fastball, change, or slider/cutter with runners on. there's a lot of reasons you need three pitches to succeed in baseball - this is just one of them. (personally i stick to change/gyroball vs. RH batters and change/two-seam vs. LH batters for this situation)



3)hitters have to adjust situationally with runners on base. if the runner gets a bad jump, you're expected to foul the ball off or put it in play. if the runner has a great jump, you're expected to take or put a late swing on the ball with the intention of missing to keep the catcher on his heels. everything you do is based on what the runner on first will do if he is a known basestealer.

does this make more sense on why the batter would instinctively be more distracted than the pitcher?



4)the point about the defense being out of position is valid; however, it is only glorified by successful hit and run attempts that you see and ignores the times when ichiro is thrown out on botched hit and run plays (which has happened recently).

[/ QUOTE ]

1)You see pitchers in the majors get distracted all the time with guys on base. Are you really saying that whether John Olerude or Jose Reyes is on base you are going to pitch the exact same way?

2)Two things on this:
a)If you take away pitches you can throw (I agree you wouldnt throw many curves looking for a grounder) it makes it easier for the hitter to guess what you will throw
B)If you throw a splitter you defintaely would want to throw this pitch. Many catchers arent good at blocking the ball so it takes a weapon away from you.

3)No,because the defense being out of place more than makes up for this (even though I dont agree that its true) If you have any kind of bat control its so much easier to hit with guys on base. Im left-handed and ive always got to left field a lot anyway- but i love when i see someone taking off from first it give me a nice whole to shoot through. If hes not going and I can an inside pitch I have a nice hole b/w first and second.


4)Even if he got thrown out recently, a lot of the time he will steal the base anyway. Sure the batter may line into a dp, but he'll get a lot more hits than he would have normally with the defense being out of position.

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't mess with Ichiro's homerun production. But
his OBP is only .379. Get it over .400. Have him protect
the plate and foul off more pitches. Try for more walks.
Want every at bat to be nine or more pitches.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ichiro can't walk more, because he doesn't hit for enough power. The common wisdom is that pitchers only walk hitters they are afraid of. Like that on base machine Dave Kingman

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought you had it backwards. A very fundamental part of this "new, hypothetical HR approach" is going to be taking more pitches. You said earlier that if he stops swinging at everything, he'd stop being Ichiro. Well, the whole thread is about him completely changing his approach to hitting, so I'm not sure why you think you can dismiss this aspect of it. He can just start hitting twice as many HRs, no problem there, but taking pitches? Impossible! ???

[vhawk01]

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[ QUOTE ]

from an anecdotal standpoint as a pitcher, the baserunner on first is not a distraction if you have any idea what you are doing. the pickoff throws are meant to keep him close as an RHP, not to actually produce an out. your delivery to the plate from the stretch will be the same 100% of the time regardless of who is on first base. your delivery time must be 1.3 seconds or less, or you're going to be murdered regardless of who is on first.




as for limiting your breaking pitches, yes, that's always possible. that being said, most pitchers don't use a curve as their groundball pitch to generate a gidp with runners on and will more likely use their two-seam fastball, change, or slider/cutter with runners on. there's a lot of reasons you need three pitches to succeed in baseball - this is just one of them. (personally i stick to change/gyroball vs. RH batters and change/two-seam vs. LH batters for this situation)



hitters have to adjust situationally with runners on base. if the runner gets a bad jump, you're expected to foul the ball off or put it in play. if the runner has a great jump, you're expected to take or put a late swing on the ball with the intention of missing to keep the catcher on his heels. everything you do is based on what the runner on first will do if he is a known basestealer.

does this make more sense on why the batter would instinctively be more distracted than the pitcher?



the point about the defense being out of position is valid; however, it is only glorified by successful hit and run attempts that you see and ignores the times when ichiro is thrown out on botched hit and run plays (which has happened recently).

[/ QUOTE ]

You see pitchers in the majors get distracted all the time with guys on base. Are you really saying that whether John Olerude or Jose Reyes is on base you are going to pitch the exact same way?

Two things on this:
1)If you take away pitches you can throw (I agree you wouldnt throw many curves looking for a grounder) it makes it easier for the hitter to guess what you will throw
2)If you throw a splitter you defintaely would want to throw this pitch. Many catchers arent good at blocking the ball so it takes a weapon away from you.

No,because the defense being out of place more than makes up for this (even though I dont agree that its true) If you have any kind of bat control its so much easier to hit with guys on base. Im left-handed and ive always got to left field a lot anyway- but i love when i see someone taking off from first it give me a nice whole to shoot through. If hes not going and I can an inside pitch I have a nice hole b/w first and second.


Even if he got thrown out recently, a lot of the time he will steal the base anyway. Sure the batter may line into a dp, but he'll get a lot more hits than he would have normally with the defense being out of position.

[/ QUOTE ]

Add in the line drive DPs and then all the balls that are hard hit back up the box that turn into DPs because the guy is covering and you start making up that ground quickly.

[mo42nyy]

no you dont
if you were better off playing right behind second base with a man on first thats where you would be positioned to start with

[mo42nyy]

[ QUOTE ]
also,

i don't understand the myth that having a LH batter with a threat on base to steal is somehow more difficult to deal with than an RH batter.

1) the catcher can throw behind the LH batter on a pickoff to first and the baserunner is less likely to see this
2) the shortstop simply covers second rather than the second baseman. the net result is the same, and if the ball is pulled to 2b on a steal + cover, the resulting 4-6-3 gidp is even easier to turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


How often do you see a guy get picked off of first base by the catcher?
Ask any catcher and they will tell you they would rather a righty batter up there with someone stealing. Its easier to see the runner and easier to get the throw off.

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
no you dont
if you were better off playing right behind second base with a man on first thats where you would be positioned to start with

[/ QUOTE ]

So thats how you argue? You just use hyperbolic, black/white strawmen, refute them, and then claim victory? I didn't say you were BETTER OFF playing behind second, I said you make some plays there that you wouldn't otherwise, and this counts AGAINST the extra hits you get from vacating the normal fielding position.

Also, LOL at your faith in baseball managers to always do the absolute best thing. What if it was actually really close, between normal fielding position and crazy up the middle fielding position? Do you think that any managers would be aware of any stats or numbers that demonstrated which was actually better? What possible reason could you have for thinking that the things a team does are correct simply because they do them?

EDIT: This is the exact same tactic you used with Thayer earlier, btw. He said that speed gets accounted for somewhat in slugging, and you decided to defeat the argument "Slugging is 100% based on speed" instead. I'm sure its easier for you to defeat the arguments you create for us, but you should try defeating our ACTUAL arguments from time to time.

[vhawk01]

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also,

i don't understand the myth that having a LH batter with a threat on base to steal is somehow more difficult to deal with than an RH batter.

1) the catcher can throw behind the LH batter on a pickoff to first and the baserunner is less likely to see this
2) the shortstop simply covers second rather than the second baseman. the net result is the same, and if the ball is pulled to 2b on a steal + cover, the resulting 4-6-3 gidp is even easier to turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


How often do you see a guy get picked off of first base by the catcher?
Ask any catcher and they will tell you they would rather a righty batter up there with someone stealing. Its easier to see the runner and easier to get the throw off.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may very well be correct, but just because catchers prefer it doesn't mean it impacts the results in any way. People aren't always very good at gauging results, and this would be a perfect spot for confirmation bias. It might make them more comfortable, so they remember the times they throw it poorly with a righty, and this then gets entrenched.

Luckily, it would be trivially easy to simply check the stats and see if this is actually reflected in reality. You don't even need to waste time laughing at me for thinking I know more about catching than catchers do! You can just look it up, find out if they really do throw out more guys with a LH hitter. There is no opinion on this one.