NFD faces a c/r

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
It would not shock me to see something like KJxx here or K4xx with spades, etc,

[/ QUOTE ] FireStorm – It would not shock me either. [ QUOTE ]
all of which you are in good enough shape against to shove.

[/ QUOTE ]I disagree. I believe Kjxx and K4xx, especially with spades that reduce Hero’s chance of drawing a winning flush, but even without the spades, are both ahead of Hero’s hand after this hand. [ QUOTE ]
Throw in QsTsxx, and you compensate for the times he has top set.

[/ QUOTE ]Yes, he could have QsTsxx. However, considering the cards Hero can see, it’s about nine times more likely anyone would be dealt KKxx as QsTsxx. And then I would think it even more likely someone would actually play KKxx than QsTsxx. And then I would think it even more likely someone would check-raise with a set of kings, rather than QsTsxx. In my mind throwing in QsTsxx hardly compensates for the times BB has top set.

I don’t think, and never did think BB probably has top set here. I think he possibly has top set here. I think it’s much more likely he has top set that QsTsxx.

Writing that his check-raise “represents” top set is very much different that stating his check-raise “is” top set.

But thanks for your thinking on the matter. Much appreciated. It helps me in learning this game to understand what people are thinking.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
omg whats the question you are talking about Buzz?

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Alavet – The question is whether to rush BB’s last $3.30 into the pot or use some restraint. Seems everybody but me thinks raising all-in is the best play. Et tu Brute?
[ QUOTE ]
if you called flop you commited to the turn anyway

[/ QUOTE ]yes.[ QUOTE ]
but now he may fold if he scared (thats still posible)

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. That’s the downside of just checking.[ QUOTE ]
and if he just bluffed you (thats also possible. so you just get $7 of profit in the best way but if you shove flop he may go desperation or etc etc and call you so your profit would be about $11.

[/ QUOTE ]If he bluffed, then I think he’s more likely to fold to a re-raise than call. However, by merely calling, we might induce him to bluff again on the turn, or if not on the turn, maybe on the river.
[ QUOTE ]
since we dont going to fold turn thats the _easiest_ shove flop because of hese $4

[/ QUOTE ]Well... there’s more to it (as I see it) than just that.

Buzz

[Buzz]

Hi again Pete – [ QUOTE ]
actually it occurred to me today that calling the check-raise could theoretically be the better play, if there was some chance that we could get him to make a bad fold by betting the $3 on the turn when checked to. lol.

[/ QUOTE ]I suppose it’s possible, but it seems unlikely that he’ll make the mistake of folding any decent hand on the turn.

However, it does seem possible to me that if he simply bluffed the check-raise on the flop, he might bluff again on the turn or river with a hand he might fold to a re-raise on the flop. And in that case Hero gains $3.30 he might otherwise have not gotten.

If it makes you feel any better, I can see the downside to just checking too.

What bothers me just a little bit is that you seem unable to comprehend the upside of just checking.

Buzz

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi again Pete – [ QUOTE ]
actually it occurred to me today that calling the check-raise could theoretically be the better play, if there was some chance that we could get him to make a bad fold by betting the $3 on the turn when checked to. lol.

[/ QUOTE ]I suppose it’s possible, but it seems unlikely that he’ll make the mistake of folding any decent hand on the turn.

However, it does seem possible to me that if he simply bluffed the check-raise on the flop, he might bluff again on the turn or river with a hand he might fold to a re-raise on the flop. And in that case Hero gains $3.30 he might otherwise have not gotten.

If it makes you feel any better, I can see the downside to just checking too.

What bothers me just a little bit is that you seem unable to comprehend the upside of just checking.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

if he folds a bluff on the flop, he's probably making a mistake.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you still defending your losing position Buzz?

[/ QUOTE ]Pete - I took the trouble to read your posts and try to understand your point of view. And I took the trouble to try to explain a point of view to everybody who seemed to disagree with me.

That you seem unable or unwilling to understand the point of view makes it no less valid, in my humble opinion.

Buzz

[pete fabrizio]

poker isn't politics. you can take all the time you want to consider and respect people's "points of view," but if your argument can't stand up to analysis, it's just wrong.

and you seem to take my lack of response to the individual points in your argument as a lack of understanding. not all of us are inclined to give point by point responses to lengthy posts, especially poorly reasoned ones.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
if he folds a bluff on the flop, he's probably making a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]Pete - Thank you for at least acknowledging BB is capable of making a mistake.

Buzz

[Buzz]

Pete - I want to get away from this and move on. I prepared a post which will hopefully be my last post on the subject, summarizing my point of view. I'll post that one after this one, so that it (hopefully) will be my last post and will actually appear below all my other posts. But before I do that, I want to answer you for one last time. If you want the last word, I'm going to allow you to have it, so long as you don't insult me.

[ QUOTE ]
...if your argument can't stand up to analysis, it's just wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]Perhaps the "analysis" has not been complete in this case.
[ QUOTE ]
and you seem to take my lack of response to the individual points in your argument as a lack of understanding.

[/ QUOTE ]That's not actually what I do think at all, but I don't think it would be nice to write what I do think.
[ QUOTE ]
not all of us are inclined to give point by point responses to lengthy posts, especially poorly reasoned ones.

[/ QUOTE ]It is your prerogative to think my posts are poorly reasoned.

However, honestly, I think you are intelligent enough that you cannot really believe that.

I think I may understand your motive for responding in such a manner, but it seems improper to me to state it in an open forum. (And it's just my opinion anyhow).

Enough. I'll post this and then post my summary of my understanding of the issues involved in whether to call or re-raise BB's check-raise.

Buzz

[Buzz]

First let me correct a mistake I made. I was wrong to assert that Hero has odds to call if Villain has a set of kings. As Rempel and RoundTower have both pointed out, he does not. Thank you both for the correction, and my apologies to everybody for that error.

But what action is best for Hero after BB check-raises? I seem to be the only one who thinks a call is best. Pete went so far as to suggest [ QUOTE ]
Buzz, your thinking here is fundamentally wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]While I do appreciate all your attempts to set me straight, I don’t believe my thinking is wrong at all (except for the single mistake of asserting Hero has odds to call if BB has a set of kings).

Nobody who has posted in this thread seems to think Hero should fold here. We are all in agreement about that.

The difference of opinion mainly has to do with whether Hero should
(1) re-raise to $8.35, forcing BB all-in if BB chooses to continue, or
(2) call for $5.05, leaving BB with $3.30.

From the very outset, I thought BB’s check raise represents a set of kings. I’m not saying that BB actually has a set of kings. He may or he may not. The very first sentence I wrote should make it clear: “<font color="blue">Does Villain have the set of kings his bet must represent or not? </font>”

To me BB’s check raise represents a set of kings – and he may indeed have a set of kings. However, I’m not overly afraid of a set of kings. Indeed, in my humble opinion it’s unlikely that BB actually does have a set of kings.

In my humble opinion, BB either
(1) holds a set (kings, jacks, or fours) and is way ahead of Hero,
(2) has KQJT (also clearly ahead of Hero),
(3) has KJXY or K4XY, (ahead of Hero but not by much), or
(4) is bluffing or semi-bluffing (perhaps with just QTXY or QsTsXY).

(1) Assuming Hero just calls, if BB actually does have a set of kings (or any set) BB is very much ahead, and will probably bet his remaining $3.30 on the turn, unless perhaps the turn is a spade. If the turn is a spade, and if BB does have a pair of kings, in my humble BB might bet or not. But if the turn is a spade, Hero will bet and BB would be making an error folding to Hero’s bet of $3.30. (Because BB would be getting pot odds of 18.45/3.30 to draw for the board to pair). At any rate, we’re all agreed that one way or another BB’s last $3.30 will go into the pot on the turn if he actually does have a set of kings. (I think we all agree on that). And in that case, it doesn’t much matter if Hero puts BB all-in on the turn or not.

(2) Also assuming Hero just calls, if BB holds KQJT, BB may fear Hero holds a set or AKQJ with spades. And BB might make the mistake of backing off and checking it down (but because of the size of the pot will still probably call if Hero makes a hand and bets). In other words, with KQJT, BB may make a mistake and not bet.

(3) Also assuming Hero just calls, if BB holds KJXY or K4XY, BB may fear Hero holds a set (or with K4XY, a set or KJXY). And BB might make the mistake of backing off and checking it down (but because of the size of the pot will still probably call if hero makes a hand and bets). In other words, with either of these possible hands, BB may make a mistake and not bet.

(4) Also assuming Hero just calls, if BB is on a pure bluff, I contend he might fold to the $3.30 re-raise from Hero. Or if he is on a pure bluff, I further contend that although he might fold to the $3.30 re-raise from Hero, a mere check from Hero might induce BB to bet his last $3.30 on the turn, as a last ditch attempt at a bluff. In other words, it does not seem impossible to me that by calling, Hero will induce BB to bluff away his last $3.30 on the turn, or if not on the turn, on the river.

(5) Iggy has suggested the only downside to just calling that I can see. If BB has a big wrap around straight draw, and if the turn is a flush card, BB might fold to Hero’s turn bet. And in that case, I’ll agree it would be better for Hero to re-raise on the flop.

Some of you seem to think that it’s a fact that BB will get his last $3.30 in the pot whatever Hero does. But in truth it is not a fact. For one thing, people make mistakes if you give them the opportunity to do so. (Just look at me if you want an example).

So I do agree that for some possible hands, the last $3.30 is going into the pot with virtual certainty. However, with some others, maybe not, and with still others only if you call the check-raise and give BB the opportunity to bluff it away on the turn or river.

Thanks for all the contributions to this thread. It has been a good learning experience for me.

Thanks.

Buzz

[cts]

jesus how did this thread get so long, jam of course